Related papers: Visualizing driving forces of spatially extended s…
The low frequency variability of the extratropical atmosphere involves hemispheric-scale recurring, often persistent, states known as teleconnection patterns or regimes, which can have profound impact on predictability on intra-seasonal and…
Extreme events arising in georeferenced processes can take various forms, such as occurring in isolated patches or stretching contiguously over large areas, and can further vary with the spatial location and the extremeness of the events.…
Mobility cross spatial units represents the embodiment of how people manage activities between locations along temporal sequences. Spatiotemporal pattern nevertheless interacts with the socioeconomic characteristics of respected origin…
We propose a method to reconstruct and analyze a complex network from data generated by a spatio-temporal dynamical system, relying on the nonlinear mutual information of time series analysis and betweenness centrality of complex network…
Recent advancements of complex network representation among several disciplines motivated the investigation of exoplanetary dynamics by means of recurrence networks. We are able to recover different dynamical regimes by means of various…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
Complex Earth System Models are widely utilised to make conditional statements about the future climate under some assumptions about changes in future atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations; these statements are often referred to as…
Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…
The Alaskan landscape has undergone substantial changes in recent decades, most notably the expansion of shrubs and trees across the Arctic. We developed a dynamic statistical model to quantify the impact of climate change on the structural…
This article considers the problem of reconstructing unknown driving forces based on incomplete knowledge of the system and its state. This is studied in both a linear and nonlinear setting that is paradigmatic in geophysical fluid dynamics…
Urban transportation systems face increasing resilience challenges from extreme weather events, but current assessment methods rely on surface-level recovery indicators that miss hidden structural damage. Existing approaches cannot…
Despite major advances in climate science over the last 30 years, persistent uncertainties in projections of future climate change remain. Climate projections are produced with increasingly complex models which attempt to represent key…
A flexible spatio-temporal model is implemented to analyse extreme extra-tropical cyclones objectively identified over the Atlantic and Europe in 6-hourly re-analyses from 1979-2009. Spatial variation in the extremal properties of the…
Many frameworks exist to infer cause and effect relations in complex nonlinear systems but a complete theory is lacking. A new framework is presented that is fully nonlinear, provides a complete information theoretic disentanglement of…
Extreme weather is one of the main mechanisms through which climate change will directly impact human society. Coping with such change as a global community requires markedly improved understanding of how global warming drives extreme…
Extreme environmental events such as severe storms, drought, heat waves, flash floods, and abrupt species collapse have become more prevalent in the earth-atmosphere dynamic system in recent years. In order to fully understand the…
Solar vortex regions show enhanced Poynting flux and favourable heating conditions, but how the vortices reorganize and influence their surroundings remains unclear. Here we apply information-theoretic diagnostics to a Bifrost simulation to…
Global climate change, extreme climate events, earthquakes and their accompanying natural disasters pose significant risks to humanity. Yet due to the nonlinear feedbacks, strategic interactions and complex structure of the Earth system,…
Recurrence plots and their associated quantifiers provide a robust framework for detecting and characterising complex patterns in non-linear time-series. In this paper, we employ recurrence quantification analysis to investigate the…
The method of recurrence plots is extended to the cross recurrence plots (CRP), which among others enables the study of synchronization or time differences in two time series. This is emphasized in a distorted main diagonal in the cross…