Related papers: Early Prediction of Geomagnetic Storms by Machine …
Large solar explosions are responsible for space weather that can impact technological infrastructure on and around Earth. Here, we apply a retrospective cohort exposure analysis to quantify the impacts of geomagnetic activity on the U.S.…
Based on our tool for the early diagnostics of solar eruption geoeffectiveness (EDSEG tool; Chertok et al., 2013, 2015, 2017), we have analyzed space weather disturbances that occurred in early September 2017. Two flares,…
This study suggests a new data-driven model for the prediction of geomagnetic storm. The model which is an instance of Brain Emotional Learning Inspired Models (BELIMs), is known as the Brain Emotional Learning-based Prediction Model…
The Sun constantly releases radiation and plasma into the heliosphere. Sporadically, the Sun launches solar eruptions such as flares and coronal mass ejections (CMEs). CMEs carry away a huge amount of mass and magnetic flux with them. An…
A regression modeling method of space weather prediction is proposed. It allows forecasting Dst index up to 6 hours ahead with about 90% correlation. It can also be used for constructing phenomenological models of interaction between the…
Geodetic time series -- such as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) positions, satellite altimetry-derived sea surface height (SSH), and tide gauge (TG) records -- is essential for monitoring surface deformation and sea level change.…
Geomagnetic disturbances (GMDs), a result of space weather, pose a severe risk to electric grids. When GMDs occur, they can cause geomagnetically-induced currents (GICs), which saturate transformers, induce hot-spot heating, and increase…
Geomagnetic storms are an important aspect of space weather and can result in significant impacts on space- and ground-based assets. The majority of strong storms are associated with the passage of interplanetary coronal mass ejections…
Improving predictions of the geomagnetic impact of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) requires understanding how solar source properties relate to in-situ measurements at Earth. However, major geomagnetic storms frequently arise from interacting…
Intense geomagnetic storms can have a strong impact on the signals (termed ionospheric scintillations) emitted by any global navigation satellite system (GNSS). The paper reports the first studies of scintillations at the Indore region on…
Accurate and reliable solar flare predictions are essential to mitigate potential impacts on critical infrastructure. However, the current performance of solar flare forecasting is insufficient. In this study, we address the task of…
Like all natural hazards, space weather exhibits occasional extreme events over timescales of decades to centuries. Historical events provoked much interest but had little economic impact. However, the widespread adoption of advanced…
Due to computational constraints, running global climate models (GCMs) for many years requires a lower spatial grid resolution (${\gtrsim}50$ km) than is optimal for accurately resolving important physical processes. Such processes are…
We present a new model for the probability that the Disturbance storm time (Dst) index exceeds -100 nT, with a lead time between 1 and 3 days. $Dst$ provides essential information about the strength of the ring current around the Earth…
Accurate short-term wind speed forecasting is needed for the rapid development and efficient operation of wind energy resources. This is, however, a very challenging problem. Although on the large scale, the wind speed is related to…
The geomagnetic Kp index is derived from the K index measurements obtained from thirteen stations located around the Earth geomagnetic latitudes between $48^\circ$ and $63^\circ$. This index is processed every three hours, is…
The main objective of the study is to determine the probability distributions of the geomagnetic Dst index as a function of the coronal mass ejection (CME) and solar flare parameters for the purpose of establishing a probabilistic forecast…
We consider the problem of predicting power outages in an electrical power grid due to hazards produced by convective storms. These storms produce extreme weather phenomena such as intense wind, tornadoes and lightning over a small area. In…
The explosion of space weather research since the early 1990s has been partly fueled by the unprecedented, uniform, and extended observations of solar disturbances from space and ground based instruments. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) from…
Atmospheric neutral density is a crucial component to accurately predict and track the motion of satellites. During periods of elevated solar and geomagnetic activity atmospheric neutral density becomes highly variable and dynamic. This…