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Motivated by the proliferation of extensive macroeconomic and health datasets necessitating accurate forecasts, a novel approach is introduced to address Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models. This approach employs the global-local…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-06 Luca Rossini , Cristiano Villa , Sotiris Prevenas , Rachel McCrea

Regression discontinuity designs (RDDs) are a common quasi-experiment in economics and statistics. The most popular methodologies for analyzing RDDs utilize continuity-based assumptions and local polynomial regression, but recent works have…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-11-06 Zach Branson , Fabrizia Mealli

This paper presents the Robust Recurrent Deep Network (R2DN), a scalable parameterization of robust recurrent neural networks for machine learning and data-driven control. We construct R2DNs as a feedback interconnection of a linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-03 Nicholas H. Barbara , Ruigang Wang , Ian R. Manchester

Bayesian models that mix multiple Dirichlet prior parameters, called Multi-Dirichlet priors (MD) in this paper, are gaining popularity. Inferring mixing weights and parameters of mixed prior distributions seems tricky, as sums over…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-08-18 Christoph Carl Kling

In this paper, we investigate the phenomenon of grokking, where models exhibit delayed generalization following overfitting on training data. We focus on data-scarce regimes where the number of training samples falls below the critical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-10 Vaibhav Singh , Eugene Belilovsky , Rahaf Aljundi

We introduce a new approach for decoupling trends (drift) and changepoints (shifts) in time series. Our locally adaptive model-based approach for robustly decoupling combines Bayesian trend filtering and machine learning based…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-01-09 Haoxuan Wu , Toryn L. J. Schafer , Sean Ryan , David S. Matteson

Disentangled representation learning (DRL) aims to break down observed data into core intrinsic factors for a profound understanding of the data. In real-world scenarios, manually defining and labeling these factors are non-trivial, making…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-01 Youngjun Jun , Jiwoo Park , Kyobin Choo , Tae Eun Choi , Seong Jae Hwang

Estimating $T_2$ relaxation time distributions from multi-echo $T_2$-weighted MRI ($T_2W$) data can provide valuable biomarkers for assessing inflammation, demyelination, edema, and cartilage composition in various pathologies, including…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2023-05-19 Hadas Ben-Atya , Moti Freiman

Diffusion models have achieved state-of-the-art performance across multiple domains, with recent advancements extending their applicability to discrete data. However, aligning discrete diffusion models with task-specific preferences remains…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-10 Umberto Borso , Davide Paglieri , Jude Wells , Tim Rocktäschel

The random dot product graph is a popular model for network data with extensions that accommodate dynamic (time-varying) networks. However, two significant deficiencies exist in the dynamic random dot product graph literature: (1) no…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-25 Joshua Daniel Loyal

A central problem in data science is to use potentially noisy samples of an unknown function to predict values for unseen inputs. In classical statistics, predictive error is understood as a trade-off between the bias and the variance that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-06-04 Mark K. Transtrum , Gus L. W. Hart , Tyler J. Jarvis , Jared P. Whitehead

The Dirichlet Process Mixture Model (DPMM) is a Bayesian non-parametric approach widely used for density estimation and clustering. In this manuscript, we study the choice of prior for the variance or precision matrix when Gaussian kernels…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-02-09 Wei Jing , Michail Papathomas , Silvia Liverani

Predictive models that generalize well under distributional shift are often desirable and sometimes crucial to building robust and reliable machine learning applications. We focus on distributional shift that arises in causal inference from…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-02-27 Fredrik D. Johansson , Nathan Kallus , Uri Shalit , David Sontag

A key task in actuarial modelling involves modelling the distributional properties of losses. Classic (distributional) regression approaches like Generalized Linear Models (GLMs; Nelder and Wedderburn, 1972) are commonly used, but…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-04 Benjamin Avanzi , Eric Dong , Patrick J. Laub , Bernard Wong

Factor models are widely used for dimension reduction. Bayesian approaches to these models often place a prior on the factor loadings that allows for infinitely many factors, with loadings increasingly shrunk toward zero as the column index…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-03-31 Shicheng Liu , Qingping Zhou , Yanan Fan , Xiongwen Ke

Variable selection over a potentially large set of covariates in a linear model is quite popular. In the Bayesian context, common prior choices can lead to a posterior expectation of the regression coefficients that is a sparse (or nearly…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-12-02 Debamita Kundu , Riten Mitra , Jeremy T. Gaskins

The ``Residual-to-Residual DNN series for high-Dynamic range imaging'' (R2D2) approach was recently introduced for Radio-Interferometric (RI) imaging in astronomy. R2D2's reconstruction is formed as a series of residual images, iteratively…

Instrumentation and Methods for Astrophysics · Physics 2024-05-28 Amir Aghabiglou , Chung San Chu , Arwa Dabbech , Yves Wiaux

We consider the problem of learning the structure of a high dimensional precision matrix under sparsity assumptions. We propose to use a shrinkage prior, called the DL-graphical prior based on the Dirichlet-Laplace prior used for the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-08-08 Sayantan Banerjee

Domain generalization (DG) aims to learn predictive models that can generalize to unseen domains. Most existing DG approaches focus on learning domain-invariant representations under the assumption of conditional distribution shift (i.e.,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Jewon Yeom , Kyubyung Chae , Hyunggyu Lim , Yoonna Oh , Dongyoon Yang , Taesup Kim

Machine learning has revolutionized materials discovery, but data scarcity remains a critical bottleneck for complex functional properties. As emerging systems, two-dimensional (2D) materials possess limited overall data volumes. Evaluating…

Materials Science · Physics 2026-05-26 Huiyang Zhang , Xinyu Chen , Qionghua Zhou , Jinlan Wang
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