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The northwest Australian summer monsoon owes a notable degree of its interannual variability to interactions with other regional monsoon systems. Therefore, changes in the nature of these relationships may contribute to variability in…

Weather regimes provide a useful framework for describing large-scale atmospheric variability and its impacts on regional weather. Despite extensive study, there is still no universally accepted definition or method for identifying weather…

The detection of periodic signals in irregularly-sampled time series is a problem commonly encountered in astronomy. Traditional tools used for periodic searches, such as the periodogram, have poorly defined statistical properties under…

Change-point detection and estimation procedures have been widely developed in the literature. However, commonly used approaches in change-point analysis have mainly been focusing on detecting change-points within an entire time series…

We propose a model to characterize how a diffusing population adapts under a time periodic selection, while its environment undergoes shifts and size changes, leading to significant differences with classical results on fixed domains. After…

We present here two promising techniques for the application of the complex network approach to continuous spatio-temporal systems that have been developed in the last decade and show large potential for future application and development…

This paper addresses the problem of change-point detection on sequences of high-dimensional and heterogeneous observations, which also possess a periodic temporal structure. Due to the dimensionality problem, when the time between…

A time series represents a set of observations collected over time. Typically, these observations are captured with a uniform sampling frequency (e.g. daily). When data points are observed in uneven time intervals the time series is…

We propose a method for filling gaps and removing interferences in time series for applications involving continuous monitoring of environmental variables. The approach is non-parametric and based on an iterative pattern-matching between…

We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model which produces probabilistic reconstructions of hydroclimatic variability in Queensland Australia. The model provides a standardised approach to hydroclimate reconstruction using multiple…

We outline a model and algorithm to perform inference on the palaeoclimate and palaeoclimate volatility from pollen proxy data. We use a novel multivariate non-linear non-Gaussian state space model consisting of an observation equation…

Sequential change diagnosis is the joint problem of detection and identification of a sudden and unobservable change in the distribution of a random sequence. In this problem, the common probability law of a sequence of i.i.d. random…

We study the change detection problem with an unknown post-change distribution. Under this constraint, the unknown change in the distribution of observations may occur in many ways without much structure on the observations, whereas, before…

Most of the time series in nature are a mixture of signals with deterministic and random dynamics. Thus the distinction between these two characteristics becomes important. Distinguishing between chaotic and aleatory signals is difficult…

Irregular temporal data, characterized by varying recording frequencies, differing observation durations, and missing values, presents significant challenges across fields like mobility, healthcare, and environmental science. Existing…

Comparative and evolutive ecologists are interested in the distribution of quantitative traits among related species. The classical framework for these distributions consists of a random process running along the branches of a phylogenetic…

Tipping points (TPs) in the Earth system have been studied with growing interest and concern in recent years due to the potential risk of anthropogenic forcing causing abrupt, and possibly irreversible, climate transitions. Paleoclimate…

Ecosystems often undergo abrupt regime shifts in response to gradual external changes. These shifts are theoretically understood as a regime switch between alternative stable states of the ecosystem dynamical response to smooth changes in…

The standard approach when studying atmospheric circulation regimes and their dynamics is to use a hard regime assignment, where each atmospheric state is assigned to the regime it is closest to in distance. However, this may not always be…

It is quite common that the structure of a time series changes abruptly. Identifying these change points and describing the model structure in the segments between these change points is of interest. In this paper, time series data is…