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Quantile regression is an increasingly important empirical tool in economics and other sciences for analyzing the impact of a set of regressors on the conditional distribution of an outcome. Extremal quantile regression, or quantile…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-01-08 Victor Chernozhukov , Ivan Fernandez-Val

Quantile regression is an effective technique to quantify uncertainty, fit challenging underlying distributions, and often provide full probabilistic predictions through joint learnings over multiple quantile levels. A common drawback of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-02-24 Youngsuk Park , Danielle Maddix , François-Xavier Aubet , Kelvin Kan , Jan Gasthaus , Yuyang Wang

In real data analysis, the underlying model is usually unknown, modelling strategy plays a key role in the success of data analysis. Stimulated by the idea of model averaging, we propose a novel semiparametric modelling strategy for…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-21 Chaohui Guo , Wenyang Zhang

This paper develops a semi-parametric procedure for estimation of unconditional quantile partial effects using quantile regression coefficients. The estimator is based on an identification result showing that, for continuous covariates,…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-01-02 Javier Alejo , Antonio F. Galvao , Julian Martinez-Iriarte , Gabriel Montes-Rojas

This article develops a random effects quantile regression model for panel data that allows for increased distributional flexibility, multivariate heterogeneity, and time-invariant covariates in situations where mean regression may be…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-09-07 Ivan Jeliazkov , Shubham Karnawat , Mohammad Arshad Rahman , Angela Vossmeyer

Level, slope, and curvature are three commonly-believed principal components in interest rate term structure and are thus widely used in modeling. This paper characterizes the heterogeneity of how misspecified such models are through time.…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-12-22 Kaiwen Hou

We introduce a new category of multivariate conditional generative models and demonstrate its performance and versatility in probabilistic time series forecasting and simulation. Specifically, the output of quantile regression networks is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-07-26 Ruofeng Wen , Kari Torkkola

Structured additive distributional regression models offer a versatile framework for estimating complete conditional distributions by relating all parameters of a parametric distribution to covariates. Although these models efficiently…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-11-14 Jana Kleinemeier , Nadja Klein

Regression models that go beyond the mean, alongside coherent risk measures, have been important tools in modern data analysis. This paper introduces the innovative concept of Average Quantile Regression (AQR), which is smooth at the…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2025-07-01 Rong Jiang , M. C. Jones , Keming Yu , Jiangfeng Wang

While machine learning has revolutionized many fields such as natural language processing (NLP) and computer vision, its impact on time-series forecasting is still widely disputed, especially in the finance domain. This paper compares…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-05-12 Aman Singh , Tokunbo Ogunfunmi , Sanjiv Das

Quantile regression, based on check loss, is a widely used inferential paradigm in Econometrics and Statistics. The conditional quantiles provide a robust alternative to classical conditional means, and also allow uncertainty quantification…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-02-15 Anuj Tambwekar , Anirudh Maiya , Soma Dhavala , Snehanshu Saha

Estimating the conditional quantile of the interested variable with respect to changes in the covariates is frequent in many economical applications as it can offer a comprehensive insight. In this paper, we propose a novel semiparametric…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2022-06-08 Jing Lv

Nonparametric regression is a standard statistical tool with increased importance in the Big Data era. Boundary points pose additional difficulties but local polynomial regression can be used to alleviate them. Local linear regression, for…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2017-04-04 Srinjoy Das , Dimitris N. Politis

In this paper, we consider estimation of the conditional mode of an outcome variable given regressors. To this end, we propose and analyze a computationally scalable estimator derived from a linear quantile regression model and develop…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-07-30 Hirofumi Ota , Kengo Kato , Satoshi Hara

Conditional expectation \mathbb{E}(Y \mid X) often fails to capture the complexity of multimodal conditional distributions \mathcal{L}(Y \mid X). To address this, we propose using n-point conditional quantizations--functional mappings of X…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-21 Blaise Delattre , Sylvain Delattre , Alexandre Vérine , Alexandre Allauzen

Quantile regression is a statistical method for estimating conditional quantiles of a response variable. In addition, for mean estimation, it is well known that quantile regression is more robust to outliers than $l_2$-based methods. By…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-08-18 Steven Siwei Ye , Oscar Hernan Madrid Padilla

Motivated by a broad range of potential applications, we address the quantile prediction problem of real-valued time series. We present a sequential quantile forecasting model based on the combination of a set of elementary nearest…

Methodology · Statistics 2010-06-16 Gérard Biau , Benoît Patra

We develop a modelling framework for multiple yield curves driven by continuous-state branching processes with immigration (CBI processes). Exploiting the self-exciting behavior of CBI jump processes, this approach can reproduce the…

Pricing of Securities · Quantitative Finance 2020-10-15 Claudio Fontana , Alessandro Gnoatto , Guillaume Szulda

Progression of chronic disease is often manifested by repeated occurrences of disease-related events over time. Delineating the heterogeneity in the risk of such recurrent events can provide valuable scientific insight for guiding…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-11-16 Huijuan Ma , Limin Peng , Chiung-Yu Huang , Haoda Fu

It is well known that quantile regression model minimizes the portfolio extreme risk, whenever the attention is placed on the estimation of the response variable left quantiles. We show that, by considering the entire conditional…

Portfolio Management · Quantitative Finance 2015-07-02 Giovanni Bonaccolto , Massimiliano Caporin , Sandra Paterlini