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We consider the problem of learning structures and parameters of Continuous-time Bayesian Networks (CTBNs) from time-course data under minimal experimental resources. In practice, the cost of generating experimental data poses a bottleneck,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-01-12 Dominik Linzner , Heinz Koeppl

Machine Learning is becoming more prevalent in science and engineering, but many approaches do not provide meaningful uncertainty estimates and predictions may also violate known physical knowledge. We propose a Bayesian framework to embed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-29 Matthew Marsh , Benoît Chachuat , Antonio del Rio Chanona

Knowledge Measures (KMs) aim at quantifying the amount of knowledge/information that a knowledge base carries. On the other hand, Belief Change (BC) is the process of changing beliefs (in our case, in terms of contraction, expansion and…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-03-18 Umberto Straccia , Giovanni Casini

Transfer learning is a machine learning paradigm where knowledge from one problem is utilized to solve a new but related problem. While conceivable that knowledge from one task could be useful for solving a related task, if not executed…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-10-01 Xuetong Wu , Jonathan H. Manton , Uwe Aickelin , Jingge Zhu

Mutual Information (MI) is a crucial measure for capturing dependencies between variables, but exact computation is challenging in high dimensions with intractable likelihoods, impacting accuracy and robustness. One idea is to use an…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-03-13 Forough Fazeliasl , Michael Minyi Zhang , Bei Jiang , Linglong Kong

Machine learning algorithms frequently require careful tuning of model hyperparameters, regularization terms, and optimization parameters. Unfortunately, this tuning is often a "black art" that requires expert experience, unwritten rules of…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2012-08-30 Jasper Snoek , Hugo Larochelle , Ryan P. Adams

Previous work on sensitivity analysis in Bayesian networks has focused on single parameters, where the goal is to understand the sensitivity of queries to single parameter changes, and to identify single parameter changes that would enforce…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-19 Hei Chan , Adnan Darwiche

Building on the framework introduced by Xu and Raginksy [1] for supervised learning problems, we study the best achievable performance for model-based Bayesian reinforcement learning problems. With this purpose, we define minimum Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-07-19 Amaury Gouverneur , Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

Adding domain knowledge to a learning system is known to improve results. In multi-parameter Bayesian frameworks, such knowledge is incorporated as a prior. On the other hand, various model parameters can have different learning rates in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-22 Sareh Nabi , Houssam Nassif , Joseph Hong , Hamed Mamani , Guido Imbens

In education applications, knowledge tracing refers to the problem of estimating students' time-varying concept/skill mastery level from their past responses to questions and predicting their future performance. One key limitation of most…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2023-03-22 Naiming Liu , Zichao Wang , Richard G. Baraniuk , Andrew Lan

In recent years there has been a flurry of works on learning Bayesian networks from data. One of the hard problems in this area is how to effectively learn the structure of a belief network from incomplete data- that is, in the presence of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-02-01 Nir Friedman

In the realm of Intelligent Tutoring System (ITS), the accurate assessment of students' knowledge states through Knowledge Tracing (KT) is crucial for personalized learning. However, due to data bias, $\textit{i.e.}$, the unbalanced…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-05 Yiyun Zhou , Zheqi Lv , Shengyu Zhang , Jingyuan Chen

We present a novel approach for constrained Bayesian inference. Unlike current methods, our approach does not require convexity of the constraint set. We reduce the constrained variational inference to a parametric optimization over the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-09-27 Oluwasanmi Koyejo , Joydeep Ghosh

Knowledge tracing (KT), a key component of an intelligent tutoring system, is a machine learning technique that estimates the mastery level of a student based on his/her past performance. The objective of KT is to predict a student's…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-09-19 Heonseok Ha , Uiwon Hwang , Yongjun Hong , Jahee Jang , Sungroh Yoon

Machine learning models have traditionally been developed under the assumption that the training and test distributions match exactly. However, recent success in few-shot learning and related problems are encouraging signs that these models…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-10-15 James Lucas , Mengye Ren , Irene Kameni , Toniann Pitassi , Richard Zemel

KnowledgeTracing (KT) involves predicting students' knowledge states based on their interactions with Intelligent Tutoring Systems (ITS). A key challenge is the cold start problem, accurately predicting knowledge for new students with…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2026-02-09 Indronil Bhattacharjee , Christabel Wayllace

Knowledge tracing (KT) aims to estimate student's knowledge mastery based on their historical interactions. Recently, the deep learning based KT (DLKT) approaches have achieved impressive performance in the KT task. These DLKT models…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-10-28 Hengyuan Zhang , Zitao Liu , Shuyan Huang , Chenming Shang , Bojun Zhan , Yong Jiang

We consider sequential state and parameter learning in state-space models with intractable state transition and observation processes. By exploiting low-rank tensor train (TT) decompositions, we propose new sequential learning methods for…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-07-04 Yiran Zhao , Tiangang Cui

Bayesian methods have been very successful in quantifying uncertainty in physics-based problems in parameter estimation and prediction. In these cases, physical measurements y are modeled as the best fit of a physics-based model…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-02-06 Dave Higdon , Jordan D. McDonnell , Nicolas Schunck , Jason Sarich , Stefan M. Wild

Knowledge Tracing (KT) aims to predict the future performance of students by tracking the development of their knowledge states. Despite all the recent progress made in this field, the application of KT models in education systems is still…

Computers and Society · Computer Science 2024-01-31 Panagiotis Pagonis , Kai Hartung , Di Wu , Munir Georges , Sören Gröttrup