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We propose a Bayesian inference approach for a class of latent Markov models. These models are widely used for the analysis of longitudinal categorical data, when the interest is in studying the evolution of an individual unobservable…

Methodology · Statistics 2011-01-05 Francesco Bartolucci , Silvia Pandolfi

Bayesian analysis for Markov jump processes is a non-trivial and challenging problem. Although exact inference is theoretically possible, it is computationally demanding thus its applicability is limited to a small class of problems. In…

Computation · Statistics 2017-02-08 Vassilios Stathopoulos , Mark A. Girolami

This paper proposes nonparametric two-sample tests for the direct comparison of the probabilities of a particular transition between states of a continuous time nonhomogeneous Markov process with a finite state space. The proposed tests are…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-02-24 Giorgos Bakoyannis

We introduce synchronizing objectives for Markov decision processes (MDP). Intuitively, a synchronizing objective requires that eventually, at every step there is a state which concentrates almost all the probability mass. In particular, it…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2011-02-22 Laurent Doyen , Thierry Massart , Mahsa Shirmohammadi

The paper is a sketch of systematic presentation of distributional limit theorems and their refinements for compound sums. When analyzing, e.g., ergodic semi-Markov systems with discrete or continuous time, this allows us to separate those…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-04-29 Vsevolod K. Malinovskii

We study the underlying mathematical properties of various partial order models of concurrency based on transition systems, Petri nets, and event structures, and show that the concurrent behaviour of these systems can be captured in a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2010-11-05 Julian Gutierrez

Despite its prevalence, probabilistic bisimilarity suffers from a lack of robustness under minuscule perturbations of the transition probabilities. This can lead to discontinuities in the probabilistic bisimilarity distance function,…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2025-05-22 Syyeda Zainab Fatmi , Stefan Kiefer , David Parker , Franck van Breugel

A classical approach to formal policy synthesis in stochastic dynamical systems is to construct a finite-state abstraction, often represented as a Markov decision process (MDP). The correctness of these approaches hinges on a behavioural…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2025-08-08 Thom Badings , Alessandro Abate

Monte Carlo methods -- such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) and piecewise deterministic Markov process (PDMP) samplers -- provide asymptotically exact estimators of expectations under a target distribution. There is growing interest in…

Computation · Statistics 2024-09-09 Adrien Corenflos , Matthew Sutton , Nicolas Chopin

The theory of ``Markov-up'' processes is being developed. This is a new class of stochastic processes with ``partial'' markovian features; it could also be called ``one-sided Markov''. Such a behavior may be found in the real world and in…

Probability · Mathematics 2024-07-01 D. O. Kalikaeva

We consider consensus of multi-agent systems as a dual problem to Markov processes. Based on an exchange of relevant notions and results between the two fields, we present a uniform framework which admits the introduction and treatment of…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-30 Fatihcan M. Atay

We develop a behavioral theory for the untyped call-by-value lambda calculus extended with the delimited-control operators shift and reset. For this calculus, we discuss the possible observable behaviors and we define an applicative…

Programming Languages · Computer Science 2012-01-05 Dariusz Biernacki , Serguei Lenglet

In the open map approach to bisimilarity, the paths and their runs in a given state-based system are the first-class citizens, and bisimilarity becomes a derived notion. While open maps were successfully used to model bisimilarity in…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2023-01-18 Jérémy Dubut , Thorsten Wißmann

This paper considers discretization of the L\'evy process appearing in the Lamperti representation of a strictly positive self-similar Markov process. Limit theorems for the resulting approximation are established under some regularity…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-06-17 Jevgenijs Ivanovs , Jakob D. Thøstesen

Although introduced in the case of Poisson random measures, the lent particle method applies as well in other situations. We study here the case of marked point processes. In this case the Malliavin calculus (here in the sense of Dirichlet…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-01-29 Nicolas Bouleau

We derive concentration inequalities for sums of independent and identically distributed random variables that yield non-asymptotic generalizations of several strong laws of large numbers including some of those due to Kolmogorov [1930],…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-04 Johannes Ruf , Ian Waudby-Smith

This work introduces a notion of approximate probabilistic trace equivalence for labelled Markov chains, and relates this new concept to the known notion of approximate probabilistic bisimulation. In particular this work shows that the…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2017-04-28 Gaoang Bian , Alessandro Abate

We describe a generalization of the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) which is able to encode prior information that state transitions are more likely between "nearby" states. This is accomplished by defining a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-07-24 Colin Reimer Dawson , Chaofan Huang , Clayton T. Morrison

We prove several results concerning classifications, based on successive observations $(X_1,..., X_n)$ of an unknown stationary and ergodic process, for membership in a given class of processes, such as the class of all finite order Markov…

Probability · Mathematics 2008-06-19 Gusztav Morvai , Benjamin Weiss

In the present paper, we propose a new generalization of the Borel-Cantelli lemma. This generalization can be further used to derive strong limit results for Markov chains. Illustrative applications are provided.

Methodology · Statistics 2014-01-31 Alexei Stepanov