Related papers: Equity Premium in Efficient Markets
An important but understudied question in economics is how people choose when facing uncertainty in the timing of events. Here we study preferences over time lotteries, in which the payment amount is certain but the payment time is…
This note studies the behavior of an index I_t which is assumed to be a tradable security, to satisfy the BSM model dI_t/I_t = \mu dt + \sigma dW_t, and to be efficient in the following sense: we do not expect a prespecified trading…
We consider an arbitrage-free, discrete time and frictionless market. We prove that an investor maximising the expected utility of her terminal wealth can always find an optimal investment strategy provided that her dissatisfaction of…
We formulate conditions for the solvability of the problem of robust utility maximization from final wealth in continuous time financial markets, without assuming weak compactness of the densities of the uncertainty set, as customary in the…
We consider a utility-maximization problem in a general semimartingale financial model, subject to constraints on the number of shares held in each risky asset. These constraints are modeled by predictable convex-set-valued processes whose…
We consider an insurance company modelling its surplus process by a Brownian motion with drift. Our target is to maximise the expected exponential utility of discounted dividend payments, given that the dividend rates are bounded by some…
We consider a monopoly insurance market with a risk-neutral profit-maximizing insurer and a consumer with Yaari Dual Utility preferences that distort the given continuous loss distribution. The insurer observes the loss distribution but not…
With model uncertainty characterized by a convex, possibly non-dominated set of probability measures, the agent minimizes the cost of hedging a path dependent contingent claim with given expected success ratio, in a discrete-time,…
This paper investigates optimal portfolio strategies in a financial market where the drift of the stock returns is driven by an unobserved Gaussian mean reverting process. Information on this process is obtained from observing stock returns…
This paper studies the problem of maximizing expected utility from terminal wealth in a semi-static market composed of derivative securities, which we assume can be traded only at time zero, and of stocks, which can be traded continuously…
This paper studies stability of the exponential utility maximization when there are small variations on agent's utility function. Two settings are considered. First, in a general semimartingale model where random endowments are present, a…
In an incomplete continuous-time securities market with uncertainty generated by Brownian motions, we derive closed-form solutions for the equilibrium interest rate and market price of risk processes. The economy has a finite number of…
We give explicit solutions for utility maximization of terminal wealth problem $u(X_T)$ in the presence of Knightian uncertainty in continuous time $[0,T]$ in a complete market. We assume there is uncertainty on both drift and volatility of…
Market timing is an investment technique that tries to continuously switch investment into assets forecast to have better returns. What is the likelihood of having a successful market timing strategy? With an emphasis on modeling…
We consider the robust utility maximization using a static holding in derivatives and a dynamic holding in the stock. There is no fixed model for the price of the stock but we consider a set of probability measures (models) which are not…
This paper studies dynamic asset allocation with interest rate risk and several sources of ambiguity. The market consists of a risk-free asset, a zero-coupon bond (both determined by a Vasicek model), and a stock. There is ambiguity about…
Obtaining utility maximizing optimal portfolios in closed form is a challenging issue when the return vector follows a more general distribution than the normal one. In this note, we give closed form expressions, in markets based on…
We study a problem of utility maximization under model uncertainty with information including jumps. We prove first that the value process of the robust stochastic control problem is described by the solution of a quadratic-exponential…
This paper considers equity premium prediction, for which mean regression can be problematic due to heteroscedasticity and heavy-tails of the error. We show advantages of quantile predictions using a novel penalized quantile regression that…
Standard approaches to the theory of financial markets are based on equilibrium and efficiency. Here we develop an alternative based on concepts and methods developed by biologists, in which the wealth invested in a financial strategy is…