Related papers: Le Soleil se l\`evera-t-il demain ?
There is sustained and widespread interest in understanding the limit, if any, to the human lifespan. Apart from its intrinsic and biological interest, changes in survival in old age have implications for the sustainability of social…
We study the persistence probabilities of a moving average process of order one with innovations that follow a Laplace distribution. The persistence probabilities can be computed fully explicitly in terms of classical combinatorial…
The maximum amplitude (Rm) of a solar cycle, in the term of mean sunspot numbers, is well-known to be positively correlated with the preceding minimum (Rmin). So far as the long term trend is concerned, a low level of Rmin tends to be…
A re-investigation of the parapegma of Euktemon (5th century BC, Athens), based on the assumption that some star observations may in fact have been calculated rather than directly observed. The calculation follows Pliny, Natural History…
This paper adresses the valuation of the Paris barrier options proposed by Yor, Jeanblanc-Picque, and Chesnay (Advances in Applied Probability, 29(1997), 165-184) using the Laplace transform approach. Based on suggestions by Pliska the…
In a multiverse setting, we expect to be situated in a universe that is exceptionally good at producing life. Though the conditions for what life needs to arise and thrive are currently unknown, many will be tested in the coming decades.…
We study the problem of sequentially predicting properties of a probabilistic model and its next outcome over an infinite horizon, with the goal of ensuring that the predictions incur only finitely many errors with probability 1. We…
A lagrangian for the $k-$ essence field is constructed for a constant scalar potential and its form determined when the scale factor was very small compared to the present epoch but very large compared to the inflationary epoch. This means…
At a superficial level, the idea of maximum likelihood must be prehistoric: early hunters and gatherers may not have used the words ``method of maximum likelihood'' to describe their choice of where and how to hunt and gather, but it is…
Solar neutrino physics is an exciting and difficult field of research for physicists, where astrophysics, elementary particle and nuclear physics meet. \ The Sun produces the energy that life has been using on Earth for many years, about…
Whether the upcoming cycle 24 of solar activity will be strong or not is being hotly debated. The solar cycle is produced by a complex dynamo mechanism. We model the last few solar cycles by `feeding' observational data of the Sun's polar…
As photovoltaic power is expanding rapidly worldwide, it is imperative to assess its promise under future climate scenarios. While a great deal of research has been devoted to trends of mean solar radiation, less attention has been paid to…
Georges Lemaitre gave a theoretical proof for his 1927 doctoral thesis in astronomy that the maximum spherical radius of our Universe can be computed from first principles to be 14.2 billion light-years (Lemaitre 1927a). That estimate,…
The Sun is used as the fundamental standard in chemical abundance studies, thus it is important to know whether the solar abundance pattern is representative of the solar neighborhood. Albeit at low precision (0.05 - 0.10 dex) the Sun seems…
Because of the lack of reliable sunspot observation, the quality of sunspot number series is poor in the late 18th century, leading to the abnormally long solar cycle (1784--1799) before the Dalton minimum. Using the newly recovered solar…
The Sun provides the energy necessary to sustain our existence. While the Sun provides for us, it is also capable of taking away. The weather and climatic scales of solar evolution and the Sun-Earth connection are not well understood. There…
Tide gauge and satellite data indicate that the rate of sea level rise has not increased significantly in response to the last 3/4 century of CO2 emissions, so there is no reason to expect that it will do so in response to the next 3/4…
Solar activities have a great impact on modern high-tech systems, such as human aerospace, satellite communication and navigation, deep space exploration, and related scientific research. Therefore, studying the long - term evolution trend…
If we assume the Thesis that any classical Turing machine T, which halts on every n-ary sequence of natural numbers as input in a determinate time t(n), determines a PA-provable formula, whose standard interpretation is an n-ary…
After Bayes, the oldest Bayesian account of enumerative induction is given by Laplace's so-called rule of succession: if all $n$ observed instances of a phenomenon to date exhibit a given character, the probability that the next instance of…