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Experimental evidence confirms that AI tools raise worker productivity, but also that sustained use can erode the expertise on which those gains depend. We develop a dynamic model in which a decision-maker chooses AI usage intensity for a…
We present insights from "Intelligence Rising", a scenario exploration exercise about possible AI futures. Drawing on the experiences of facilitators who have overseen 43 games over a four-year period, we illuminate recurring patterns,…
The convergence of artificial intelligence (AI) and synthetic biology is rapidly accelerating the pace of biological discovery and engineering. AI techniques, such as large language models and biological design tools, are enabling the…
As artificial intelligence systems grow more capable and autonomous, frontier AI development poses potential systemic risks that could affect society at a massive scale. Current practices at many AI labs developing these systems lack…
We have witnessed and experienced increasing compound extreme events resulting from simultaneous or sequential occurrence of multiple events in a changing climate. In addition to a growing demand for a clearer explanation of compound risks…
The rapid proliferation and deployment of General-Purpose AI (GPAI) models, including large language models (LLMs), present unprecedented challenges for AI supervisory entities. We hypothesize that these entities will need to navigate an…
Generative AI systems may pose serious risks to individuals vulnerable to eating disorders. Existing safeguards tend to overlook subtle but clinically significant cues, leaving many risks unaddressed. To better understand the nature of…
We present a quantitative model for tracking dangerous AI capabilities over time. Our goal is to help the policy and research community visualise how dangerous capability testing can give us an early warning about approaching AI risks. We…
Humanity is progressing towards automated product development, a trend that promises faster creation of better products and thus the acceleration of technological progress. However, increasing reliance on non-human agents for this process…
As AI advances, broader consensus is needed to determine research priorities. This endeavor discusses offensive AI and provides guidance by leveraging Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and interpretability techniques. The objective is to…
Artificial Intelligence (AI) systems have historically been used as tools that execute narrowly defined tasks. Yet recent advances in AI have unlocked possibilities for a new class of models that genuinely collaborate with humans in complex…
Recent gains in popularity of AI conversational agents have led to their increased use for improving productivity and supporting well-being. While previous research has aimed to understand the risks associated with interactions with AI…
AI that can accelerate research could drive a century of technological progress over just a few years. During such a period, new technological or political developments will raise consequential and hard-to-reverse decisions, in rapid…
Artificial Intelligence's dual-use nature is revolutionizing the cybersecurity landscape, introducing new threats across four main categories: deepfakes and synthetic media, adversarial AI attacks, automated malware, and AI-powered social…
Human society and natural environment form a complex giant ecosystem, where human activities not only lead to the change of environmental states, but also react to them. By using collective-risk social dilemma game, some studies have…
The study of complex adaptive systems, pioneered in physics, biology, and the social sciences, offers important lessons for AI governance. Contemporary AI systems and the environments in which they operate exhibit many of the properties…
The recent rapid advancement of LLM-based AI systems has accelerated our search and production of information. While the advantages brought by these systems seemingly improve the performance or efficiency of human activities, they do not…
A fascinating hypothesis is that human and animal intelligence could be explained by a few principles (rather than an encyclopedic list of heuristics). If that hypothesis was correct, we could more easily both understand our own…
The rise of autonomous, AI-driven agents in economic settings raises critical questions about their emergent strategic behavior. This paper investigates these dynamics in the cooperative context of a multi-echelon supply chain, a system…
Frontier artificial intelligence (AI) systems could pose increasing risks to public safety and security. But what level of risk is acceptable? One increasingly popular approach is to define capability thresholds, which describe AI…