Related papers: Forecasting GDP in Europe with Textual Data
News media coverage of monetary policy is not a passive transcript of central-bank communication: it filters announcements, macroeconomic news, and editorial choices into narratives that move expectations and policy decisions. We embed…
Any large organisation, be it public or private, monitors the media for information to keep abreast of developments in their field of interest, and usually also to become aware of positive or negative opinions expressed towards them. At…
This paper presents a novel machine learning approach to GDP prediction that incorporates volatility as a model weight. The proposed method is specifically designed to identify and select the most relevant macroeconomic variables for…
Can we use data on the biographies of historical figures to estimate the GDP per capita of countries and regions? Here we introduce a machine learning method to estimate the GDP per capita of dozens of countries and hundreds of regions in…
Timely information about the state of regional economies can be essential for planning, implementing and evaluating locally targeted economic policies. However, European regional accounts for output are published at an annual frequency and…
GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…
This paper uses a new textual data index for predicting stock market data. The index is applied to a large set of news to evaluate the importance of one or more general economic-related keywords appearing in the text. The index assesses the…
Social media platforms and online forums generate rapid and increasing amount of textual data. Businesses, government agencies, and media organizations seek to perform sentiment analysis on this rich text data. The results of these…
I propose an open dataset of country-level historical opinion polling data for the European Union and the UK. The dataset aims to fill a gap in available opinion polling data for the European Union. Some existing datasets are restricted to…
This study compares the media discourses about Euroscepticism in 2014 across six countries (United Kingdom, Ireland, France, Spain, Sweden, and Denmark). We assess the extent to which the mass media's reporting of Euroscepticism indicates…
Macroeconomic variables are known to significantly impact equity markets, but their predictive power for price fluctuations has been underexplored due to challenges such as infrequency and variability in timing of announcements, changing…
The objective of this research is to examine how sentiment analysis can be employed to generate trading signals for the Foreign Exchange (Forex) market. The author assessed sentiment in social media posts and news articles pertaining to the…
This study presents a novel approach to incorporating news topics and their associated sentiment into predictions of breakeven inflation rate (BEIR) movements for eight countries with mature bond markets. We calibrate five classes of…
This paper aims to explore the application of machine learning in forecasting Chinese macroeconomic variables. Specifically, it employs various machine learning models to predict the quarterly real GDP growth of China, and analyzes the…
Quantification of economic uncertainty is a key concept for the prediction of macro economic variables such as gross domestic product (GDP), and it becomes particularly relevant on real-time or short-time predictions methodologies, such as…
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important economic indicator that aggregates useful information to assist economic agents and policymakers in their decision-making process. In this context, GDP forecasting becomes a powerful decision…
The complexity and diversity of today's media landscape provides many challenges for researchers studying news producers. These producers use many different strategies to get their message believed by readers through the writing styles they…
The fixed-event forecasting setup is common in economic policy. It involves a sequence of forecasts of the same (`fixed') predictand, so that the difficulty of the forecasting problem decreases over time. Fixed-event point forecasts are…
We use generative AI to extract managerial expectations about their economic outlook from 120,000+ corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, and employment up to 10 quarters…
The web radically changed the dissemination of information and the global spread of news. In this study, we aim to reconstruct the connectivity patterns within nations shaping news propagation globally in 2022. We do this by analyzing a…