Related papers: Pandemic infection forecasting through compartment…
The importance of spatial networks in the spread of an epidemic is an essential aspect in modeling the dynamics of an infectious disease. Additionally, any realistic data-driven model must take into account the large uncertainty in the…
The Bayesian analysis of infectious disease surveillance data from multiple locations typically involves building and fitting a spatio-temporal model of how the disease spreads in the structured population. Here we present new generally…
We propose a deterministic SAIVRD model and a stochastic SARV model of the epidemic COVID-19 involving asymptomatic infections and vaccinations to conduct data forecasts using time-dependent parameters. The forecast by our deterministic…
Compartmental models are used in epidemiology to capture the evolution of infectious diseases such as COVID-19 in a population by assigning members of it to compartments with labels such as susceptible, infected, and recovered. In a…
Infectious diseases are a threat for human health with tremendous impact on our society at large. The recent COVID-19 pandemic, caused by the SARS-CoV-2, is the latest example of a highly infectious disease ravaging the world, since late…
Genomic surveillance of infectious diseases allows monitoring circulating and emerging variants and quantifying their epidemic potential. However, due to the high costs associated with genomic sequencing, only a limited number of samples…
Epidemic models are used to analyze the progression or outcome of an epidemic under different control policies like vaccinations, quarantines, lockdowns, use of face-masks, pharmaceutical interventions, etc. When these models accurately…
COVID-19 pandemic is severely impacting the lives of billions across the globe. Even after taking massive protective measures like nation-wide lockdowns, discontinuation of international flight services, rigorous testing etc., the infection…
This paper uses new and existing methods to study collective trends across countries throughout the pandemic, with a focus on the multivariate time series of reproduction numbers and vaccine proliferation. We begin with a time-varying…
This paper extends the canonical model of epidemiology, SIRD model, to allow for time varying parameters for real-time measurement of the stance of the COVID-19 pandemic. Time variation in model parameters is captured using the generalized…
A pandemic is the spread of a disease across large regions, and can have devastating costs to the society in terms of health, economic and social. As such, the study of effective pandemic mitigation strategies can yield significant positive…
Reliable estimation of spatio-temporal trends in population-level HIV incidence is becoming an increasingly critical component of HIV prevention policy-making. However, direct measurement is nearly impossible. Current, widely used models…
Forecasting disease spread is a critical tool to help public health officials design and plan public health interventions. However, the expected future state of an epidemic is not necessarily well defined as disease spread is inherently…
Epidemic models are useful tools in the fight against infectious diseases, as they allow policy makers to test and compare various strategies to limit disease transmission while mitigating collateral damage on the economy. Epidemic models…
Pandemic control measures like lock-down, restrictions on restaurants and gatherings, social-distancing have shown to be effective in curtailing the spread of COVID-19. However, their sustained enforcement has negative economic effects. To…
With the unfolding of the COVID-19 pandemic, mathematical modeling of epidemics has been perceived and used as a central element in understanding, predicting, and governing the pandemic event. However, soon it became clear that long term…
The COVID-19 pandemic has, worldwide and up to December 2020, caused over 1.7 million deaths, and put the world's most advanced healthcare systems under heavy stress. In many countries, drastic restrictive measures adopted by political…
The COVID-19 pandemic is one of the most pressing issues at present. A question which is particularly important for governments and policy makers is the following: Does the virus spread in the same way in different countries? Or are there…
Spatio-temporal models for infection counts generally follow themes of the broader disease mapping literature, but may need to address specific features of spatio-temporal infection data including considerable time fluctuations (with…
Epidemic models are invaluable tools to understand and implement strategies to control the spread of infectious diseases, as well as to inform public health policies and resource allocation. However, current modeling approaches have…