Related papers: SpotV2Net: Multivariate Intraday Spot Volatility F…
We present a novel methodology for modeling and forecasting multivariate realized volatilities using customized graph neural networks to incorporate spillover effects across stocks. The proposed model offers the benefits of incorporating…
This paper introduces a global stock market volatility forecasting model that enhances forecasting accuracy and practical utility in real-world financial decision-making by integrating dynamic graph structures and encompassing all active…
Jumps and market microstructure noise are stylized features of high-frequency financial data. It is well known that they introduce bias in the estimation of volatility (including integrated and spot volatilities) of assets, and many methods…
A technique for on-line estimation of spot volatility for high-frequency data is developed. The algorithm works directly on the transaction data and updates the volatility estimate immediately after the occurrence of a new transaction.…
We develop further the spot volatility estimator introduced in Hoffmann, Munk and Schmidt-Hieber (2012) from a practical point of view and make it useful for the analysis of high-frequency financial data. In a first part, we adjust the…
We introduce M2VN: Multi-Modal Volatility Network, a novel deep learning-based framework for financial volatility forecasting that unifies time series features with unstructured news data. M2VN leverages the representational power of deep…
We examine whether model-based spot volatility estimators extracted from traded options data enhance the predictive power of the Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) model for realized volatility. Specifically, we infer spot volatility under…
We propose a new estimator for the spot covariance matrix of a multi-dimensional continuous semi-martingale log asset price process which is subject to noise and non-synchronous observations. The estimator is constructed based on a local…
The usage of a spot volatility estimate based on a volatility decomposition in a time-changed price-model according to the trading times is investigated. In this model clock-time volatility splits up into the product of tick-time volatility…
We apply machine learning models to forecast intraday realized volatility (RV), by exploiting commonality in intraday volatility via pooling stock data together, and by incorporating a proxy for the market volatility. Neural networks…
There are several approaches to modeling and forecasting time series as applied to prices of commodities and financial assets. One of the approaches is to model the price as a non-stationary time series process with heteroscedastic…
The existing publications demonstrate that the limit order book data is useful in predicting short-term volatility in stock markets. Since stocks are not independent, changes on one stock can also impact other related stocks. In this paper,…
Volatility forecasting is essential for risk management and decision-making in financial markets. Traditional models like Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) effectively capture volatility clustering but often…
This paper introduces an innovative realized volatility (RV) forecasting framework that extends the conventional Heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model via integrating Graph Signal Processing (GSP). The study first evaluates various…
We investigate the joint dynamics of spot and implied volatility from an empirical perspective. We focus on the equity market with the SPX Index our underlying of choice. Using only observable quantities, we extract the instantaneous…
Fully exploring correlation among points in point clouds is essential for their feature modeling. This paper presents a novel end-to-end graph model, named Point2Node, to represent a given point cloud. Point2Node can dynamically explore…
Stock market volatility forecasting is a task relevant to assessing market risk. We investigate the interaction between news and prices for the one-day-ahead volatility prediction using state-of-the-art deep learning approaches. The…
Forecasting the volatility of financial assets is essential for various financial applications. This paper addresses the challenging task of forecasting the volatility of financial assets with limited historical data, such as new issues or…
We consider estimation of the spot volatility in a stochastic boundary model with one-sided microstructure noise for high-frequency limit order prices. Based on discrete, noisy observations of an It\^o semimartingale with jumps and general…
While Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) are remarkably successful in a variety of high-impact applications, we demonstrate that, in link prediction, the common practices of including the edges being predicted in the graph at training and/or test…