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High-quality observations of hub-height winds are valuable but sparse in space and time. Simulations are widely available on regular grids but are generally biased and too coarse to inform wind-farm siting or to assess…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-07 Xiaolong Ma , Xu Dong , Ashley Tarrant , Lei Yang , Rao Kotamarthi , Jiali Wang , Feng Yan , Rajkumar Kettimuthu

``Online" data assimilation (DA) is used to generate a new seasonal-resolution reanalysis dataset over the last millennium by combining forecasts from an ocean--atmosphere--sea-ice coupled linear inverse model with climate proxy records.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-27 Zilu Meng , Gregory J. Hakim , Eric J. Steig

Local climate information is crucial for impact assessment and decision-making, yet coarse global climate simulations cannot capture small-scale phenomena. Current statistical downscaling methods infer these phenomena as temporally…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Jonathan Schmidt , Luca Schmidt , Felix Strnad , Nicole Ludwig , Philipp Hennig

Incomplete satellite-based precipitation presents a significant challenge in global monitoring. For example, the Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP) from JAXA suffers from substantial missing regions due to the orbital…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Daiko Kishikawa , Yuka Muto , Shunji Kotsuki

Domain adaptation (DA) strives to mitigate the domain gap between the source domain where a model is trained, and the target domain where the model is deployed. When a deep learning model is deployed on an aerial platform, it may face…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-08-16 Chowdhury Sadman Jahan , Andreas Savakis

Effective hydrological modeling and extreme weather analysis demand precipitation data at a kilometer-scale resolution, which is significantly finer than the 10 km scale offered by standard global products like IMERG. To address this, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-03 Chugang Yi , Minghan Yu , Weikang Qian , Yixin Wen , Haizhao Yang

Data assimilation (DA) aims at forecasting the state of a dynamical system by combining a mathematical representation of the system with noisy observations taking into account their uncertainties. State of the art methods are based on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-05-26 Pierre Boudier , Anthony Fillion , Serge Gratton , Selime Gürol , Sixin Zhang

The advancements in the state of the art of generative Artificial Intelligence (AI) brought by diffusion models can be highly beneficial in novel contexts involving Earth observation data. After introducing this new family of generative…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Fulvio Sanguigni , Mikolaj Czerkawski , Lorenzo Papa , Irene Amerini , Bertrand Le Saux

Diffusion models offer stable training and state-of-the-art performance for deep generative modeling tasks. Here, we consider their use in the context of multivariate subsurface modeling and probabilistic inversion. We first demonstrate…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2026-01-28 Roberto Miele , Niklas Linde

As a class of generative artificial intelligence frameworks inspired by statistical physics, diffusion models have shown extraordinary performance in synthesizing complicated data distributions through a denoising process gradually guided…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-23 Fangjun Hu , Guangkuo Liu , Yifan F. Zhang , Xun Gao

Accurate probabilistic weather forecasting demands both high accuracy and efficient uncertainty quantification, challenges that overburden both ensemble numerical weather prediction (NWP) and recent machine-learning methods. We introduce…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-12 Yilin Zhuang , Karthik Duraisamy

The accuracy of simulation-based forecasting in chaotic systems is heavily dependent on high-quality estimates of the system state at the time the forecast is initialized. Data assimilation methods are used to infer these initial conditions…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-02 Michael McCabe , Jed Brown

Data scarcity is a primary obstacle in developing robust Machine Learning (ML) models for detecting rapidly intensifying tropical cyclones. Traditional data augmentation techniques (rotation, flipping, brightness adjustment) fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-10 Marawan Yakout , Tannistha Maiti , Monira Majhabeen , Tarry Singh

Earth system models (ESMs) are the principal tools used in climate science to generate future climate projections under various atmospheric emissions scenarios on a global or regional scale. Generative deep learning approaches are suitable…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-04-16 Katie Christensen , Lyric Otto , Seth Bassetti , Claudia Tebaldi , Brian Hutchinson

Storm-scale convection-allowing models (CAMs) are an important tool for predicting the evolution of thunderstorms and mesoscale convective systems that result in damaging extreme weather. By explicitly resolving convective dynamics within…

We introduce a universal diffusion-based downscaling framework that lifts deterministic low-resolution weather forecasts into probabilistic high-resolution predictions without any model-specific fine-tuning. A single conditional diffusion…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-21 Roberto Molinaro , Niall Siegenheim , Henry Martin , Mark Frey , Niels Poulsen , Philipp Seitz , Marvin Vincent Gabler

Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Maximilian Springenberg , Noelia Otero , Yuxin Xue , Jackie Ma

Deep learning has revolutionized weather forecasting, but many challenges remain, including climate modeling. Moreover, the current landscape remains fragmented: highly specialized models are typically trained individually for distinct…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Michael Aich , Andreas Fürst , Florian Sestak , Carlos Ruiz-Gonzalez , Niklas Boers , Johannes Brandstetter

Weather forecasting has seen a shift in methods from numerical simulations to data-driven systems. While initial research in the area focused on deterministic forecasting, recent works have used diffusion models to produce skillful ensemble…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-15 Martin Andrae , Tomas Landelius , Joel Oskarsson , Fredrik Lindsten

Data assimilation (DA) aims to estimate the full state of a dynamical system by combining partial and noisy observations with a prior model forecast, commonly referred to as the background. In atmospheric applications, this problem is…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-29 Jing-An Sun , Hang Fan , Junchao Gong , Ben Fei , Kun Chen , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Wanghan Xu , Li Yan , Pierre Gentine , Lei Bai
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