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We develop a novel Empirical Bayes methodology for prediction under check loss in high-dimensional Gaussian models. The check loss is a piecewise linear loss function having differential weights for measuring the amount of underestimation…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Gourab Mukherjee , Lawrence D. Brown , Paat Rusmevichientong

The sample mean is often used to aggregate different unbiased estimates of a parameter, producing a final estimate that is unbiased but possibly high-variance. This paper introduces the Bayesian median of means, an aggregation rule that…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-06-05 Paulo Orenstein

Bayesian classification labels observations based on given prior information, namely class-a priori and class-conditional probabilities. Bayes' risk is the minimum expected classification cost that is achieved by the Bayes' test, the…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2023-03-07 Frank Nielsen

For propensity score analysis and sparse estimation, we develop an information criterion for determining the regularization parameters needed in variable selection. First, for Gaussian distribution-based causal inference models, we extend…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-04-22 Yoshiyuki Ninomiya

Polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) is a versatile tool widely used in uncertainty quantification and machine learning, but its successful application depends strongly on the accuracy and reliability of the resulting PCE-based response…

Computation · Statistics 2023-06-14 Paul-Christian Bürkner , Ilja Kröker , Sergey Oladyshkin , Wolfgang Nowak

We consider the problem of comparing two Poisson parameters from the Bayesian perspective. Kawasaki and Miyaoka (2012b) proposed the Bayesian index $P(\lambda_1 < \lambda_2 | X_1,X_2)$ and expressed it using the hypergeometric series. In…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-06-07 Masaaki Doi

We propose new, optimal methods for analyzing randomized trials, when it is suspected that treatment effects may differ in two predefined subpopulations. Such sub-populations could be defined by a biomarker or risk factor measured at…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-11-26 Michael Rosenblum , Han Liu , and En-Hsu Yen

We propose a new empirical Bayes approach for inference in the $p \gg n$ normal linear model. The novelty is the use of data in the prior in two ways, for centering and regularization. Under suitable sparsity assumptions, we establish a…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-12-06 Ryan Martin , Raymond Mess , Stephen G. Walker

In the sparse normal means model, convergence of the Bayesian posterior distribution associated to spike and slab prior distributions is considered. The key sparsity hyperparameter is calibrated via marginal maximum likelihood empirical…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-10-17 Ismaël Castillo , Romain Mismer

Approximate Bayesian computation allows for statistical analysis in models with intractable likelihoods. In this paper we consider the asymptotic behaviour of the posterior distribution obtained by this method. We give general results on…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-05-09 David T. Frazier , Gael M. Martin , Christian P. Robert , Judith Rousseau

Power and sample size analysis comprises a critical component of clinical trial study design. There is an extensive collection of methods addressing this problem from diverse perspectives. The Bayesian paradigm, in particular, has attracted…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-12-08 Jane Pan , Sudipto Banerjee

In this article, a general problem of sequential statistical inference for general discrete-time stochastic processes is considered. The problem is to minimize an average sample number given that Bayesian risk due to incorrect decision does…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2010-10-18 Andrey Novikov

In this paper, our interest is in the problem of simultaneous hypothesis testing when the test statistics corresponding to the individual hypotheses are possibly correlated. Specifically, we consider the case when the test statistics…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2019-01-14 Anupam Kundu , Subir Kumar Bhandari

Motivation: Recent advances in technology for brain imaging and high-throughput genotyping have motivated studies examining the influence of genetic variation on brain structure. Wang et al. (Bioinformatics, 2012) have developed an approach…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-18 Keelin Greenlaw , Elena Szefer , Jinko Graham , Mary Lesperance , Farouk S. Nathoo

Motivated by the proliferation of observational datasets and the need to integrate non-randomized evidence with randomized controlled trials, causal inference researchers have recently proposed several new methodologies for combining biased…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-14 Evan T. R. Rosenman , Francesca Dominici , Luke Miratrix

The Poisson compound decision problem is a long-standing problem in statistics, where empirical Bayes methodologies are commonly used to estimate Poisson's means in static or batch domains. In this paper, we study the Poisson compound…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-10 Stefano Favaro , Sandra Fortini

Bayesian optimization has attracted huge attention from diverse research areas in science and engineering, since it is capable of efficiently finding a global optimum of an expensive-to-evaluate black-box function. In general, a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-29 Jungtaek Kim

We study sequential multiple testing with independent data streams, where the goal is to identify an unknown subset of signals while controlling commonly used error metrics, including generalized familywise rates and false discovery and…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Jingyu Liu , Yanglei Song

Optimization is widely used in statistics, and often efficiently delivers point estimates on useful spaces involving structural constraints or combinatorial structure. To quantify uncertainty, Gibbs posterior exponentiates the negative loss…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-23 Cheng Zeng , Eleni Dilma , Jason Xu , Leo L Duan

The behavior of many Bayesian models used in machine learning critically depends on the choice of prior distributions, controlled by some hyperparameters that are typically selected by Bayesian optimization or cross-validation. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-09 Eliezer de Souza da Silva , Tomasz Kuśmierczyk , Marcelo Hartmann , Arto Klami