Related papers: Reliability Analysis of Complex Systems using Subs…

This paper introduces and reviews some of the principles and methods used in Bayesian reliability. It specifically discusses methods used in the analysis of success/no-success data and then reminds the reader of a simple Monte Carlo…

The paper proposes a new Monte-Carlo simulator combining the advantages of Sequential Monte Carlo simulators and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo simulators. The result is a method that is robust to multimodality and complex shapes to use for…

Much recent research has been conducted in the area of Bayesian learning, particularly with regard to the optimization of hyper-parameters via Gaussian process regression. The methodologies rely chiefly on the method of maximizing the…

The problem of optimising functions with intractable gradients frequently arise in machine learning and statistics, ranging from maximum marginal likelihood estimation procedures to fine-tuning of generative models. Stochastic approximation…

We consider the problem of estimating rare event probabilities, focusing on systems whose evolution is governed by differential equations with uncertain input parameters. If the system dynamics is expensive to compute, standard sampling…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a widely deployed method to sample from high-dimensional distributions in Statistics and Machine learning. HMC is known to run very efficiently in practice and its popular second-order "leapfrog"…

Stochastic approximation Monte Carlo (SAMC) has recently been proposed by Liang, Liu and Carroll [J. Amer. Statist. Assoc. 102 (2007) 305--320] as a general simulation and optimization algorithm. In this paper, we propose to improve its…

Bayesian inference in the presence of an intractable likelihood function is computationally challenging. When following a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach to approximate the posterior distribution in this context, one typically…

Efficient sampling of complex high-dimensional probability distributions is a central task in computational science. Machine learning methods like autoregressive neural networks, used with Markov chain Monte Carlo sampling, provide good…

When properly tuned, Hamiltonian Monte Carlo scales to some of the most challenging high-dimensional problems at the frontiers of applied statistics, but when that tuning is suboptimal the performance leaves much to be desired. In this…

Multifidelity Monte Carlo methods often rely on a preprocessing phase consisting of standard Monte Carlo sampling to estimate correlation coefficients between models of different fidelity to determine the weights and number of samples for…

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) is a powerful Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm for estimating expectations with respect to continuous un-normalized probability distributions. MCMC estimators typically have higher variance than…

As deep learning-based computer vision algorithms continue to advance the state of the art, their robustness to real-world data continues to be an issue, making it difficult to bring an algorithm from the lab to the real world.…

The self-learning Metropolis-Hastings algorithm is a powerful Monte Carlo method that, with the help of machine learning, adaptively generates an easy-to-sample probability distribution for approximating a given hard-to-sample distribution.…

We introduce a novel combination of Bayesian Models (BMs) and Neural Networks (NNs) for making predictions with a minimum expected risk. Our approach combines the best of both worlds, the data efficiency and interpretability of a BM with…

Multi-fidelity Monte Carlo (MFMC) is a variance reduction method that leverages a multi-fidelity ensemble of models of varying cost and accuracy levels. Constructing an MFMC estimator with optimal variance requires knowledge of the…

Estimating probability of failure in aerospace systems is a critical requirement for flight certification and qualification. Failure probability estimation involves resolving tails of probability distribution, and Monte Carlo sampling…

We develop a novel deep learning method for uncertainty quantification in stochastic partial differential equations based on Bayesian neural network (BNN) and Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC). A BNN efficiently learns the posterior…

The Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) method allows sampling from continuous densities. Favorable scaling with dimension has led to wide adoption of HMC by the statistics community. Modern auto-differentiating software should allow more…

Accurate estimates of long-term risk probabilities and their gradients are critical for many stochastic safe control methods. However, computing such risk probabilities in real-time and in unseen or changing environments is challenging.…