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Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) is a set of distribution-free and model agnostic algorithms devised to predict with a user-defined confidence with coverage guarantee. Instead of having point predictions, i.e., a real number in the case…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-07-05 Martim Sousa

Constraint-based causal discovery from limited data is a notoriously difficult challenge due to the many borderline independence test decisions. Several approaches to improve the reliability of the predictions by exploiting redundancy in…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2017-01-27 Sara Magliacane , Tom Claassen , Joris M. Mooij

Causal discovery methods can identify valid adjustment sets for causal effect estimation for a pair of target variables, even when the underlying causal graph is unknown. Global causal discovery methods focus on learning the whole causal…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-01 Mátyás Schubert , Tom Claassen , Sara Magliacane

Most causal discovery procedures assume that there are no latent confounders in the system, which is often violated in real-world problems. In this paper, we consider a challenging scenario for causal structure identification, where some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-10-06 Biwei Huang , Charles Jia Han Low , Feng Xie , Clark Glymour , Kun Zhang

Testing a hypothesized causal model against observational data is a key prerequisite for many causal inference tasks. A natural approach is to test whether the conditional independence relations (CIs) assumed in the model hold in the data.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-30 Hyunchai Jeong , Adiba Ejaz , Jin Tian , Elias Bareinboim

It has been postulated that a good representation is one that disentangles the underlying explanatory factors of variation. However, it remains an open question what kind of training framework could potentially achieve that. Whereas most…

Proximal causal inference (PCI) has emerged as a promising framework for identifying and estimating causal effects in the presence of unobserved confounders. While many traditional causal inference methods rely on the assumption of no…

Discovering causal structures with latent variables from observational data is a fundamental challenge in causal discovery. Existing methods often rely on constraint-based, iterative discrete searches, limiting their scalability to large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-02 Parjanya Prashant , Ignavier Ng , Kun Zhang , Biwei Huang

The task of inferring high-level causal variables from low-level observations, commonly referred to as causal representation learning, is fundamentally underconstrained. As such, recent works to address this problem focus on various…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-03-26 Simon Bing , Urmi Ninad , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Entropic causal inference is a framework for inferring the causal direction between two categorical variables from observational data. The central assumption is that the amount of unobserved randomness in the system is not too large. This…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-01-12 Spencer Compton , Murat Kocaoglu , Kristjan Greenewald , Dmitriy Katz

Estimating causal effects from nonexperimental data is a fundamental problem in many fields of science. A key component of this task is selecting an appropriate set of covariates for confounding adjustment to avoid bias. Most existing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Zheng Li , Xichen Guo , Feng Xie , Yan Zeng , Hao Zhang , Zhi Geng

One of the most fundamental problems in causal inference is the estimation of a causal effect when variables are confounded. This is difficult in an observational study, because one has no direct evidence that all confounders have been…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2014-11-03 Ricardo Silva , Robin Evans

We consider the problem of inferring causal relationships between two or more passively observed variables. While the problem of such causal discovery has been extensively studied especially in the bivariate setting, the majority of current…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-04-22 Ricardo Pio Monti , Kun Zhang , Aapo Hyvarinen

This paper discusses the problem of causal query in observational data with hidden variables, with the aim of seeking the change of an outcome when "manipulating" a variable while given a set of plausible confounding variables which affect…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Debo Cheng , Jiuyong Li , Lin Liu , Jixue Liu , Kui Yu , Thuc Duy Le

At the heart of causal structure learning from observational data lies a deceivingly simple question: given two statistically dependent random variables, which one has a causal effect on the other? This is impossible to answer using…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-13 Nikolaos Nikolaou , Konstantinos Sechidis

In causal models, a given mechanism is assumed to be invariant to changes of other mechanisms. While this principle has been utilized for inference in settings where the causal variables are observed, theoretical insights when the variables…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-12-07 Simon Bing , Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

We consider the problem of learning a set of direct causes of a target variable from an observational joint distribution. Learning directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) that represent the causal structure is a fundamental problem in science.…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-06-24 Juraj Bodik , Valérie Chavez-Demoulin

Large language models are able to learn new tasks in context, where they are provided with instructions and a few annotated examples. However, the effectiveness of in-context learning is dependent on the provided context, and the…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2023-12-25 Afra Amini , Massimiliano Ciaramita

We consider the problem of discovering causal relations from independence constraints selection bias in addition to confounding is present. While the seminal FCI algorithm is sound and complete in this setup, no criterion for the causal…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-03-04 Philip Versteeg , Cheng Zhang , Joris M. Mooij

Inducing causal relationships from observations is a classic problem in machine learning. Most work in causality starts from the premise that the causal variables themselves are observed. However, for AI agents such as robots trying to make…