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Artificial intelligence models and methods commonly lack causal interpretability. Despite the advancements in interpretable machine learning (IML) methods, they frequently assign importance to features which lack causal influence on the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-29 Francisco Nunes Ferreira Quialheiro Simoes , Mehdi Dastani , Thijs van Ommen

In an intelligent transportation system, the effects and relations of traffic flow at different points in a network are valuable features which can be exploited for control system design and traffic forecasting. In this paper, we define the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2020-11-24 Sina Molavipour , Germán Bassi , Mladen Čičić , Mikael Skoglund , Karl Henrik Johansson

'Causal' direction is of great importance when dealing with complex systems. Often big volumes of data in the form of time series are available and it is important to develop methods that can inform about possible causal connections between…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-01-24 Fatimah Abdul Razak , Henrik Jeldtoft Jensen

When monitoring the dynamics of stochastic systems, such as interacting particles agitated by thermal noise, disentangling deterministic forces from Brownian motion is challenging. Indeed, we show that there is an information-theoretic…

Soft Condensed Matter · Physics 2020-04-16 Anna Frishman , Pierre Ronceray

Identifying and quantifying memory are often critical steps in developing a mechanistic understanding of stochastic processes. These are particularly challenging and necessary when exploring processes that exhibit long-range correlations.…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-04-20 Sarah E. Marzen , James P. Crutchfield

We introduce an approach which allows detecting causal relationships between variables for which the time evolution is available. Causality is assessed by a variational scheme based on the Information Imbalance of distance ranks, a…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-05-07 Vittorio Del Tatto , Gianfranco Fortunato , Domenica Bueti , Alessandro Laio

Liang information flow is a quantity widely used in classical network theory to quantify causation, and has been applied widely, for example, to finance and climate. The most striking aspect here is to freeze/subtract a certain node of the…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2022-07-20 Bin Yi , Sougato Bose

Experimentally observed networks of interacting dynamical systems are inferred from recorded multivariate time series by evaluating a statistical measure of dependence, usually the cross-correlation coefficient, or mutual information. These…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2017-07-03 Milan Palus

We present an approach for flux analysis in process algebra models of biological systems. We perceive flux as the flow of resources in stochastic simulations. We resort to an established correspondence between event structures, a broadly…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2010-02-23 Ozan Kahramanoğullari

Complex behaviour in many systems arises from the stochastic interactions of spatially distributed particles or agents. Stochastic reaction-diffusion processes are widely used to model such behaviour in disciplines ranging from biology to…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-08-23 David Schnoerr , Ramon Grima , Guido Sanguinetti

Information dynamics is an emerging description of information processing in complex systems which describes systems in terms of intrinsic computation, identifying computational primitives of information storage and transfer. In this paper…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2018-10-03 Richard E. Spinney , Joseph T. Lizier , Mikhail Prokopenko

The problem of estimating entropy production from incomplete information in stochastic thermodynamics is essential for theory and experiments. Whereas a considerable amount of work has been done on this topic, arguably, most of it is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2024-12-17 Pedro E. Harunari , Carlos E. Fiore , Andre C. Barato

Granger causality is a statistical notion of causal influence based on prediction via vector autoregression. For Gaussian variables it is equivalent to transfer entropy, an information-theoretic measure of time-directed information transfer…

Quantitative Methods · Quantitative Biology 2021-02-17 Sebastiano Stramaglia , Tomas Scagliarini , Yuri Antonacci , Luca Faes

Stochastic chains represent a wide and key variety of phenomena in many branches of science within the context of Information Theory and Thermodynamics. They are typically approached by a sequence of independent events or by a memoryless…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2017-03-06 J. Ricardo Arias-Gonzalez

In this article, the dynamics and complexity of a noise induced blood flow system have been investigated. Changes in the dynamics have been recognized by measuring the periodicity over significant parameters. Chaotic as well as non-chaotic…

Adaptation and Self-Organizing Systems · Physics 2020-01-08 Bo Yan , Sayan Mukherjee , Shaobo He

We address causal reasoning in multivariate time series data generated by stochastic processes. Existing approaches are largely restricted to static settings, ignoring the continuity and emission of variations across time. In contrast, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-29 Mehdi Fatemi , Sindhu Gowda

We study a dynamical system with time dependent Hamiltonian by numerical experiments so as to find a relation between thermodynamics and chaotic nature of the system. Excess information loss, defined newly based on Lyapunov analysis, is…

chao-dyn · Physics 2009-10-31 S. Sasa , T. S. Komatsu

Information theory provides ideas for conceptualising information and measuring relationships between objects. It has found wide application in the sciences, but economics and finance have made surprisingly little use of it. We show that…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2013-05-02 Galen Sher , Pedro Vitoria

While it is an important problem to identify the existence of causal associations between two components of a multivariate time series, a topic addressed in Runge et al. (2012), it is even more important to assess the strength of their…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2015-07-15 Jakob Runge , Jobst Heitzig , Norbert Marwan , Jürgen Kurths

Recent research has explored the increasingly important role of social media by examining the dynamics of individual and group behavior, characterizing patterns of information diffusion, and identifying influential individuals. In this…

Social and Information Networks · Computer Science 2011-10-13 Greg Ver Steeg , Aram Galstyan