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Related papers: Learning about a changing state

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When estimating an unknown phase rotation of a continuous-variable system with homodyne detection, the optimal probe state strongly depends on the value of the estimated parameter. In this article, we identify the optimal pure single-mode…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2025-05-28 Ricard Ravell Rodríguez , Simon Morelli

Detecting a change point is a crucial task in statistics that has been recently extended to the quantum realm. A source state generator that emits a series of single photons in a default state suffers an alteration at some point and starts…

The conditional density of Brownian motion is considered given the max, B(t|\max), as well as those with additional information: B(t|close, max), B(t|close, max, min) and B(t|max, min) where the close is the final value: B(t=1)=c and t in…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-11-03 Kurt S Riedel

The aim of the present study is to detect abrupt trend changes in the mean of a multidimensional sequential signal. Directly inspired by papers of Fernhead and Liu ([4] and [5]), this work describes the signal in a hierarchical manner : the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-11 Olivier Sorba , C Geissler

This paper characterizes the conditions under which the observed beliefs of a group of agents are consistent with Bayesian updating. Beliefs are consistent with Bayesianism if they arise from the application of Bayes' rule given some…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2024-01-19 Pooya Molavi

We propose practical extensions to Bayesian optimization for solving dynamic problems. We model dynamic objective functions using spatiotemporal Gaussian process priors which capture all the instances of the functions over time. Our…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-03-12 Favour M. Nyikosa , Michael A. Osborne , Stephen J. Roberts

The paper presents a machine learning approach to design digital interfaces that can dynamically adapt to different users and usage strategies. The algorithm uses Bayesian statistics to model users' browsing behavior, focusing on their…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Eric Petit , Denis Chêne

The lifetime of a metastable state in the transient dynamics of an overdamped Brownian particle is analyzed, both in terms of the mean first passage time and by means of the mean growth rate coefficient. Both quantities feature non…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2009-11-11 A. Fiasconaro , B. Spagnolo , S. Boccaletti

The deterministic dynamics of randomly connected neural networks are studied, where a state of binary neurons evolves according to a discreet-time synchronous update rule. We give a theoretical support that the overlap of systems' states…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2015-03-10 Taro Toyoizumi , Haiping Huang

Bayesian optimization is a methodology to optimize black-box functions. Traditionally, it focuses on the setting where you can arbitrarily query the search space. However, many real-life problems do not offer this flexibility; in…

The model of a non-Bayesian agent who faces a repeated game with incomplete information against Nature is an appropriate tool for modeling general agent-environment interactions. In such a model the environment state (controlled by Nature)…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2014-11-17 D. Monderer , M. Tennenholtz

In this work we consider time series with a finite number of discrete point changes. We assume that the data in each segment follows a different probability density functions (pdf). We focus on the case where the data in all segments are…

Data Analysis, Statistics and Probability · Physics 2007-05-23 Ali Mohammad-Djafari , Olivier Feron

The initialization of the state estimation in a localization scenario based on ranging and dead reckoning is studied. Specifically, we start with a cooperative localization setup and consider the problem of recursively arriving at a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2013-07-04 John-Olof Nilsson , Peter Händel

We model the joint distribution of choice probabilities and decision times in binary choice tasks as the solution to a problem of optimal sequential sampling, where the agent is uncertain of the utility of each action and pays a constant…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2015-05-14 Drew Fudenberg , Philipp Strack , Tomasz Strzalecki

We study a Bayesian coordination game where agents receive private information on the game's payoff structure. In addition, agents receive private signals on each other's private information. We show that once agents possess these different…

Economics · Quantitative Finance 2015-01-06 Dominik Grafenhofer , Wolgang Kuhle

Affordances are fundamental descriptors of relationships between actions, objects and effects. They provide the means whereby a robot can predict effects, recognize actions, select objects and plan its behavior according to desired goals.…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-02-12 Pedro Osório , Alexandre Bernardino , Ruben Martinez-Cantin , José Santos-Victor

We study a Bayesian persuasion problem with externalities. In this model, a principal sends signals to inform multiple agents about the state of the world. Simultaneously, due to the existence of externalities in the agents' utilities, the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2024-12-18 Jonathan Shaki , Jiarui Gan , Sarit Kraus

I study dynamic contracting where Sender privately observes a Markovian state and seeks to motivate Receiver, who acts. Sender provides incentives in two ways: payments, which alter payoffs ex-post, and (Bayesian) persuasion, which shapes…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-05-22 Daniel Luo

Adaptive measurements were recently shown to significantly improve the performance of quantum state tomography. Utilizing information about the system for the on-line choice of optimal measurements allows to reach the ultimate bounds of…

Functional data analysis, which models data as realizations of random functions over a continuum, has emerged as a useful tool for time series data. Often, the goal is to infer the dynamic connections (or time-varying conditional…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-12-10 Chunshan Liu , Daniel R. Kowal , James Doss-Gollin , Marina Vannucci