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We present a novel approach to uncertainty quantification in classification tasks based on label-wise decomposition of uncertainty measures. This label-wise perspective allows uncertainty to be quantified at the individual class level,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Yusuf Sale , Paul Hofman , Timo Löhr , Lisa Wimmer , Thomas Nagler , Eyke Hüllermeier

Machine learning models have emerged as a very effective strategy to sidestep time-consuming electronic-structure calculations, enabling accurate simulations of greater size, time scale and complexity. Given the interpolative nature of…

Early detection of melanoma is crucial for improving survival rates. Current detection tools often utilize data-driven machine learning methods but often overlook the full integration of multiple datasets. We combine publicly available…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-18 SangHyuk Kim , Edward Gaibor , Brian Matejek , Daniel Haehn

The uncertainty quantification of prediction models (e.g., neural networks) is crucial for their adoption in many robotics applications. This is arguably as important as making accurate predictions, especially for safety-critical…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-04-09 Junan Chen , Josephine Monica , Wei-Lun Chao , Mark Campbell

As neural networks become more popular, the need for accompanying uncertainty estimates increases. There are currently two main approaches to test the quality of these estimates. Most methods output a density. They can be compared by…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-06-05 Laurens Sluijterman , Eric Cator , Tom Heskes

In principle, deep learning models trained on medical time-series, including wearable photoplethysmography (PPG) sensor data, can provide a means to continuously monitor physiological parameters outside of clinical settings. However, there…

When deployed for risk-sensitive tasks, deep neural networks must include an uncertainty estimation mechanism. Here we examine the relationship between deep architectures and their respective training regimes, with their corresponding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-24 Ido Galil , Mohammed Dabbah , Ran El-Yaniv

Among the many ways of quantifying uncertainty in a regression setting, specifying the full quantile function is attractive, as quantiles are amenable to interpretation and evaluation. A model that predicts the true conditional quantiles…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-12-10 Youngseog Chung , Willie Neiswanger , Ian Char , Jeff Schneider

Uncertainty representation and quantification are paramount in machine learning and constitute an important prerequisite for safety-critical applications. In this paper, we propose novel measures for the quantification of aleatoric and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-22 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

Fair predictive algorithms hinge on both equality and trust, yet inherent uncertainty in real-world data challenges our ability to make consistent, fair, and calibrated decisions. While fairly managing predictive error has been extensively…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-04 Lucas Rosenblatt , R. Teal Witter

We address the problem of uncertainty quantification and propose measures of total, aleatoric, and epistemic uncertainty based on a known decomposition of (strictly) proper scoring rules, a specific type of loss function, into a divergence…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Paul Hofman , Yusuf Sale , Eyke Hüllermeier

We propose a new optimization framework for aleatoric uncertainty estimation in regression problems. Existing methods can quantify the error in the target estimation, but they tend to underestimate it. To obtain the predictive uncertainty…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2021-03-12 Takumi Kawashima , Qing Yu , Akari Asai , Daiki Ikami , Kiyoharu Aizawa

Clinical trials are notorious for their high failure rates and steep costs, leading to wasted time and resources spend, prolonged development timelines, and delayed patient access to new therapies. A key contributor to these failures is…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2026-01-19 Laia Domingo , Christine Johnson

Accurate uncertainty quantification is critical for reliable predictive modeling. Existing methods typically address either aleatoric uncertainty due to measurement noise or epistemic uncertainty resulting from limited data, but not both in…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-03-04 Ilia Azizi , Juraj Bodik , Jakob Heiss , Bin Yu

The growing integration of large language models across professional domains transforms how experts make critical decisions in healthcare, education, and law. While significant research effort focuses on getting these systems to communicate…

The burgeoning field of algorithms with predictions studies the problem of using possibly imperfect machine learning predictions to improve online algorithm performance. While nearly all existing algorithms in this framework make no…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-05 Bo Sun , Jerry Huang , Nicolas Christianson , Mohammad Hajiesmaili , Adam Wierman , Raouf Boutaba

In this paper the application of uncertainty modeling to convolutional neural networks is evaluated. A novel method for adjusting the network's predictions based on uncertainty information is introduced. This allows the network to be either…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2016-12-23 Rene Grzeszick , Sebastian Sudholt , Gernot A. Fink

Uncertainty is a fundamental challenge in medical practice, but current medical AI systems fail to explicitly quantify or communicate uncertainty in a way that aligns with clinical reasoning. Existing XAI works focus on interpreting model…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2025-09-24 Xiuyi Fan

Epistemic uncertainty quantification (UQ) identifies where models lack knowledge. Traditional UQ methods, often based on Bayesian neural networks, are not suitable for pre-trained non-Bayesian models. Our study addresses quantifying…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-04-17 Hanjing Wang , Qiang Ji

Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) is an important building block for the reliable use of neural networks in real-world scenarios, as it can be a useful tool in identifying faulty predictions. Speech emotion recognition (SER) models can suffer…

Sound · Computer Science 2024-07-02 Oliver Schrüfer , Manuel Milling , Felix Burkhardt , Florian Eyben , Björn Schuller