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Related papers: Counterfactuals in factor models

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We consider the problem of extrapolating treatment effects across heterogeneous populations (``sites"/``contexts"). We consider an idealized scenario in which the researcher observes cross-sectional data for a large number of units across…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-10-03 Konrad Menzel

Instrumental variables are widely used to deal with unmeasured confounding in observational studies and imperfect randomized controlled trials. In these studies, researchers often target the so-called local average treatment effect as it is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-03-24 Linbo Wang , Yuexia Zhang , Thomas S. Richardson , James M. Robins

This paper provides estimation and inference methods for a conditional average treatment effects (CATE) characterized by a high-dimensional parameter in both homogeneous cross-sectional and unit-heterogeneous dynamic panel data settings. In…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-12-13 Vira Semenova , Matt Goldman , Victor Chernozhukov , Matt Taddy

The presence of units with extreme values in the dependent and/or independent variables (i.e., vertical outliers, leveraged data) has the potential to severely bias regression coefficients and/or standard errors. This is common with short…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-12-12 Annalivia Polselli

A central goal in social science is to evaluate the causal effect of a policy. One dominant approach is through panel data analysis in which the behaviors of multiple units are observed over time. The information across time and space…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-10-11 Dennis Shen , Peng Ding , Jasjeet Sekhon , Bin Yu

Heterogeneity in medical data, e.g., from data collected at different sites and with different protocols in a clinical study, is a fundamental hurdle for accurate prediction using machine learning models, as such models often fail to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-07-13 Rongguang Wang , Pratik Chaudhari , Christos Davatzikos

Counterfactual reasoning allows us to explore hypothetical scenarios in order to explain the impacts of our decisions. However, addressing such inquires is impossible without establishing the appropriate mathematical framework. In this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 Kurt Butler , Marija Iloska , Petar M. Djuric

We study settings in which a researcher has an instrumental variable (IV) and seeks to evaluate the effects of a counterfactual policy that alters treatment assignment, such as a directive encouraging randomly assigned judges to release…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-03-16 Michal Kolesár , José Luis Montiel Olea , Jonathan Roth

Estimating treatment effects over time holds significance in various domains, including precision medicine, epidemiology, economy, and marketing. This paper introduces a unique approach to counterfactual regression over time, emphasizing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-30 Mouad El Bouchattaoui , Myriam Tami , Benoit Lepetit , Paul-Henry Cournède

Causal evidence is needed to act and it is often enough for the evidence to point towards a direction of the effect of an action. For example, policymakers might be interested in estimating the effect of slightly increasing taxes on private…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-08-11 Dominik Rothenhäusler , Bin Yu

The fundamental problem in treatment effect estimation from observational data is confounder identification and balancing. Most of the previous methods realized confounder balancing by treating all observed pre-treatment variables as…

Methodology · Statistics 2021-10-13 Anpeng Wu , Kun Kuang , Junkun Yuan , Bo Li , Runze Wu , Qiang Zhu , Yueting Zhuang , Fei Wu

We consider the task of causal imputation, where we aim to predict the outcomes of some set of actions across a wide range of possible contexts. As a running example, we consider predicting how different drugs affect cells from different…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-09-19 Alvaro Ribot , Chandler Squires , Caroline Uhler

This study considers treatment effect models in which others' treatment decisions can affect both one's own treatment and outcome. Focusing on the case of two-player interactions, we formulate treatment decision behavior as a complete…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-02-23 Tadao Hoshino , Takahide Yanagi

Algorithmic risk assessments are increasingly used to help humans make decisions in high-stakes settings, such as medicine, criminal justice and education. In each of these cases, the purpose of the risk assessment tool is to inform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-01-13 Amanda Coston , Alan Mishler , Edward H. Kennedy , Alexandra Chouldechova

Users of music streaming, video streaming, news recommendation, and e-commerce services often engage with content in a sequential manner. Providing and evaluating good sequences of recommendations is therefore a central problem for these…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-08-25 James McInerney , Brian Brost , Praveen Chandar , Rishabh Mehrotra , Ben Carterette

Counterfactual estimation using synthetic controls is one of the most successful recent methodological developments in causal inference. Despite its popularity, the current description only considers time series aligned across units and…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-02-03 Alexis Bellot , Mihaela van der Schaar

Factor structures or interactive effects are convenient devices to incorporate latent variables in panel data models. We consider fixed effect estimation of nonlinear panel single-index models with factor structures in the unobservables,…

Methodology · Statistics 2019-10-16 Mingli Chen , Iván Fernández-Val , Martin Weidner

We study the informational content of factor structures in discrete triangular systems. Factor structures have been employed in a variety of settings in cross sectional and panel data models, and in this paper we formally quantify their…

Econometrics · Economics 2022-03-25 Shakeeb Khan , Arnaud Maurel , Yichong Zhang

Understanding treatment effect heterogeneity is vital to many scientific fields because the same treatment may affect different individuals differently. Quantile regression provides a natural framework for modeling such heterogeneity. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-07-12 Alexander Giessing , Jingshen Wang

In most medical research, the average treatment effect is used to evaluate a treatment's performance. However, precision medicine requires knowledge of individual treatment effects: What is the difference between a unit's measurement under…

Computation · Statistics 2022-08-30 Mingyang Cai , Stef van Buuren , Gerko Vink