Related papers: Statistical Response of ENSO Complexity to Initial…
We consider the effect of different temporal error structures on the inference of equilibrium climate sensitivity\footnote{ECS is defined as the realized equilibrium surface warming---globally-averaged surface air temperature---for a…
In this work, we consider systems that are subjected to intermittent instabilities due to external stochastic excitation. These intermittent instabilities, though rare, have a large impact on the probabilistic response of the system and…
Can far-from-equilibrium material response under arbitrary loading be inferred from equilibrium data and vice versa? Can the effect of element transmutation on mechanical behavior be predicted? Remarkably, such extrapolations are possible…
This paper extends previous work (Groom et al., \emph{Artif. Intell. Earth Syst.}, 2024) in applying the entropy-optimal Sparse Probabilistic Approximation (eSPA) algorithm to predict ENSO phase, defined by thresholding the Ni\~no3.4 index.…
Accurate reconstruction of global Sea surface temperature (SST), which dominates the air-sea coupling and global climate variability, underpins climate monitoring and prediction. Existing SST reconstruction products primarily provide one…
The availability of training data remains a significant obstacle for the implementation of machine learning in scientific applications. In particular, estimating how a system might respond to external forcings or perturbations requires…
The response of the climate system to increased greenhouse gases and other radiative perturbations is governed by a combination of fast and slow feedbacks. Slow feedbacks are typically activated in response to changes in ocean temperatures…
A primary objective of the NASA Earth-Sun Exploration Technology Office is to understand the observed Earth climate variability, thus enabling the determination and prediction of the climate's response to both natural and human-induced…
The 2022 National Defense Strategy of the United States listed climate change as a serious threat to national security. Climate intervention methods, such as stratospheric aerosol injection, have been proposed as mitigation strategies, but…
The southern oscillation index (SOI) is a characteristic of the El Nino phenomenon. SOI monthly averaged data is analyzed for the time interval 1866-2000. The tail of the cumulative distribution of the fluctuations of SOI signal is studied…
Turbulent dynamical systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities are ubiquitous among many complex systems in science and engineering. The existence of a strange attractor in the turbulent…
The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is used to indicate the meteorological drought situation - a negative (or positive) value of SPI would imply a dry (or wet) condition in a region over a period. The climate system is an excellent…
Oceanic atmospheric oscillations and climate variability are tightly linked and both exhibit broad band spectral content that ranges, with roughly equal strength, from annual to centennial periodicity. The explanation for variability based…
Complex network theory provides a powerful toolbox for studying the structure of statistical interrelationships between multiple time series in various scientific disciplines. In this work, we apply the recently proposed climate network…
The present communication addresses a set of observations, obeying both deterministic as well as statistical formal requirements, and serving to operate within the framework of the dynamical systems theory, with a certain emphasis placed on…
The information entropy budget and the rate of information transfer between variables is studied in the context of a nonlinear reduced-order atmospheric model. The key ingredients of the dynamics are present in this model, namely the…
Existing methods for diagnosing predictability in climate indices often make a number of unjustified assumptions about the climate system that can lead to misleading conclusions. We present a flexible family of state-space models capable of…
We propose a new measure to estimate the direction of information flux in multivariate time series from complex systems. This measure, based on the slope of the phase spectrum (Phase Slope Index) has invariance properties that are important…
Statistical models provide a powerful and useful class of approximations for calculating reaction rates by bypassing the need for detailed, and often difficult, dynamical considerations. Such approaches invariably invoke specific…
I present new evidence of the effects of climate shocks on conflict. Focusing on political violence in Africa, I find that El Ni\~no Southern Oscillation (ENSO) shocks during the crop-growing season affect harvest-related conflict in…