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Hierarchical Bayesian models are increasingly used in large, inhomogeneous complex network dynamical systems by modeling parameters as draws from a hyperparameter-governed distribution. However, theoretical guarantees for these estimates as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-01-23 Yi Yu , Yubo Hou , Yinchong Wang , Nan Zhang , Jianfeng Feng , Wenlian Lu

We study nonparametric distance-based (isotropic) local polynomial methods for estimating the boundary average treatment effect curve, a causal functional that captures treatment effect heterogeneity in boundary discontinuity designs. We…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-05-26 Matias D. Cattaneo , Rocio Titiunik , Ruiqi Rae Yu

Network analysis is often focused on characterizing the dependencies between network relations and node-level attributes. Potential relationships are typically explored by modeling the network as a function of the nodal attributes or by…

Methodology · Statistics 2013-06-21 Bailey K. Fosdick , Peter D. Hoff

This paper develops new methods for causal inference in observational studies on a single large network of interconnected units, addressing two key challenges: long-range dependence among units and the presence of general interference. We…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-11-24 Jizhou Liu , Dake Zhang , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

A nonparametric variant of the Kiefer--Weiss problem is proposed and investigated. In analogy to the classical Kiefer--Weiss problem, the objective is to minimize the maximum expected sample size of a sequential test. However, instead of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-10-26 Michael Fauß , H. Vincent Poor

We study problem-dependent rates, i.e., generalization errors that scale near-optimally with the variance, the effective loss, or the gradient norms evaluated at the "best hypothesis." We introduce a principled framework dubbed "uniform…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-12-25 Yunbei Xu , Assaf Zeevi

We consider the problem of estimating the expected value of information (the knowledge gradient) for Bayesian learning problems where the belief model is nonlinear in the parameters. Our goal is to maximize some metric, while simultaneously…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2016-11-23 Xinyu He , Warren B. Powell

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

We propose an autoregressive framework for modelling dynamic networks with dependent edges. It encompasses models that accommodate, for example, transitivity, degree heterogenenity, and other stylized features often observed in real network…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2026-03-25 Jinyuan Chang , Qin Fang , Eric D. Kolaczyk , Peter W. MacDonald , Qiwei Yao

We obtain non-uniform Edgeworth expansions for several classes of weakly dependent (non-stationary) sequences of random variables, including uniformly elliptic inhomogeneous Markov chains, random and time-varying (partially) hyperbolic or…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-11-11 Yeor Hafouta

Consider a nonparametric regression model with one-sided errors and regression function in a general H\"older class. We estimate the regression function via minimization of the local integral of a polynomial approximation. We show uniform…

Methodology · Statistics 2016-10-12 Holger Drees , Natalie Neumeyer , Leonie Selk

The framework of feedback graphs is a generalization of sequential decision-making with bandit or full information feedback. In this work, we study an extension where the directed feedback graph is stochastic, following a distribution…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-20 Emmanuel Esposito , Federico Fusco , Dirk van der Hoeven , Nicolò Cesa-Bianchi

We develop inference procedures robust to general forms of weak dependence. The procedures utilize test statistics constructed by resampling in a manner that does not depend on the unknown correlation structure of the data. We prove that…

Econometrics · Economics 2021-08-26 Michael P. Leung

Influence maximization is the task of finding the smallest set of nodes whose activation in a social network can trigger an activation cascade that reaches the targeted network coverage, where threshold rules determine the outcome of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2021-04-16 Manqing Ma , Gyorgy Korniss , Boleslaw K. Szymanski

We study the inhomogeneous Curie-Weiss model with external field, where the inhomogeneity is introduced by adding a positive weight to every vertex and letting the interaction strength between two vertices be proportional to the product of…

Probability · Mathematics 2020-02-25 Sander Dommers , Peter Eichelsbacher

In this paper, we study the problem of robust influence maximization in the independent cascade model under a hyperparametric assumption. In social networks users influence and are influenced by individuals with similar characteristics and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-05-14 Dimitris Kalimeris , Gal Kaplun , Yaron Singer

In this paper, we adopt a latent variable method to formulate a network model with arbitrarily dependent structure. We assume that the latent variables follow a multivariate normal distribution and a link between two nodes forms if the sum…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-03-28 Ting Yan

We consider in this paper the formulation of approximate inference in Bayesian networks as a problem of exact inference on an approximate network that results from deleting edges (to reduce treewidth). We have shown in earlier work that…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2012-07-02 Arthur Choi , Adnan Darwiche

Recent work has focused on the problem of nonparametric estimation of information divergence functionals. Many existing approaches are restrictive in their assumptions on the density support set or require difficult calculations at the…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2021-07-30 Kevin R. Moon , Kumar Sricharan , Kristjan Greenewald , Alfred O. Hero

Graphical models have been popularly used for capturing conditional independence structure in multivariate data, which are often built upon independent and identically distributed observations, limiting their applicability to complex…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-07-03 Yuwen Wang , Changyu Liu , Xin He , Junhui Wang