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In this chapter we review stochastic modelling methods in climate science. First we provide a conceptual framework for stochastic modelling of deterministic dynamical systems based on the Mori-Zwanzig formalism. The Mori-Zwanzig equations…
Uncertainties from deepening penetration of renewable energy resources have posed critical challenges to the secure and reliable operations of future electric grids. Among various approaches for decision making in uncertain environments,…
Motivated by applications in systems biology, we seek a probabilistic framework based on Markov processes to represent intracellular processes. We review the formal relationships between different stochastic models referred to in the…
The recent increase in renewable energy penetration at the distribution level introduces a multi-directional power flow that outdated traditional fault location techniques. To this extent, the development of new methods is needed to ensure…
We propose a data-driven method to solve a stochastic optimal power flow (OPF) problem based on limited information about forecast error distributions. The objective is to determine power schedules for controllable devices in a power…
How to distinguish and quantify deterministic and random influences on the statistics of turbulence data in meteorology cases is discussed from first principles. Liquid water path (LWP) changes in clouds, as retrieved from radio signals,…
A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…
This paper presents a stochastic model predictive control approach for nonlinear systems subject to time-invariant probabilistic uncertainties in model parameters and initial conditions. The stochastic optimal control problem entails a cost…
This work addresses the challenge of ignition timing and load control in homogeneous charge compression ignition engines operating subject to uncertainty from complex combustion dynamics and external disturbances. To handle this issue, we…
We consider rare transitions induced by colored noise excitation in multistable systems. We show that undesirable transitions can be mitigated by a simple time-delay feedback control if the control parameters are judiciously chosen. We…
The thesis focuses on developing a data-driven algorithm, based on machine learning, to solve the stochastic alternating current (AC) chance-constrained (CC) Optimal Power Flow (OPF) problem. Although the AC CC-OPF problem has been…
Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…
Both the level of conservativeness and the computational burden in robust optimization are critically influenced by uncertainty set design. However, contextual side information is rarely exploited in robust dispatch of power systems…
The uncertainty in distribution grid planning is driven by the unpredictable spatial and temporal patterns in adopting electric vehicles (EVs) and solar photovoltaic (PV) systems. This complexity, stemming from interactions among EVs, PV…
Process mining is a well-established discipline of data analysis focused on the discovery of process models from information systems' event logs. Recently, an emerging subarea of process mining, known as stochastic process discovery, has…
We characterize a stochastic dynamical system with tempered stable noise, by examining its probability density evolution. This probability density function satisfies a nonlocal Fokker-Planck equation. First, we prove a superposition…
This paper develops solutions of fractional Fokker-Planck equations describing subdiffusion of probability densities of stochastic dynamical systems driven by non-Gaussian L\'evy processes, with space-time-dependent drift, diffusion and…
Stochastic model predictive control (SMPC) has been a promising solution to complex control problems under uncertain disturbances. However, traditional SMPC approaches either require exact knowledge of probabilistic distributions, or rely…
The invariant distribution, which is characterized by the stationary Fokker-Planck equation, is an important object in the study of randomly perturbed dynamical systems. Traditional numerical methods for computing the invariant distribution…
We present a numerical method for learning the dynamics of slow components of unknown multiscale stochastic dynamical systems. While the governing equations of the systems are unknown, bursts of observation data of the slow variables are…