Related papers: The expected value of sample information calculati…
Risk prediction models are often advertised as deterministic functions that map covariates to predicted risks. However, they are typically trained using finite samples, and as such, their predictions are inherently uncertain. This…
Background: Before being used to inform patient care, a risk prediction model needs to be validated in a representative sample from the target population. The finite size of the validation sample entails that there is uncertainty with…
Background: The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) determines the economic value of any future study with a specific design aimed at reducing uncertainty in a health economic model. This has potential as a tool for trial design;…
Background: Due to the finite size of the development sample, predicted probabilities from a risk prediction model are inevitably uncertain. We apply Value of Information methodology to evaluate the decision-theoretic implications of…
Contemporary sample size calculations for external validation of risk prediction models require users to specify fixed values of assumed model performance metrics alongside target precision levels (e.g., 95% CI widths). However, due to the…
Investing efficiently in future research to improve policy decisions is an important goal. Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) can be used to select the specific design and sample size of a proposed study by assessing the benefit of…
Background: The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) calculates the value of collecting additional information through a study with a given design. Standard EVSI analyses assume that the treatment recommendations based on the new…
Objectives: Value of information (VOI) analyses can help policy-makers make informed decisions about whether to conduct and how to design future studies. Historically, a computationally expensive method to compute the Expected Value of…
Objective: The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) quantifies the economic benefit of reducing uncertainty in a health economic model by collecting additional information. This has the potential to improve the allocation of research…
Over recent years Value of Information analysis has become more widespread in health-economic evaluations, specifically as a tool to perform Probabilistic Sensitivity Analysis. This is largely due to methodological advancements allowing for…
The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) is used to calculate the economic value of a new research strategy. While this value would be important to both researchers and funders, there are very few practical applications of the EVSI.…
The European Medicines Agency has in recent years allowed licensing of new pharmaceuticals at an earlier stage in the clinical trial process. When trial evidence is obtained at an early stage, the events of interest, such as disease…
The effective sample size (ESS) measures the informational value of a probability distribution in terms of an equivalent number of study participants. The ESS plays a crucial role in estimating the Expected Value of Sample Information…
Background. The Expected Value of Sample Information (EVSI) measures the expected benefits that could be obtained by collecting additional data. Estimating EVSI using the traditional nested Monte Carlo method is computationally expensive…
This paper derives analytic expressions for the expected value of sample information (EVSI), the expected value of distribution information (EVDI), and the optimal sample size when data consists of independent draws from a bounded sequence…
Health impact simulation models are used to predict how a proposed intervention or scenario will affect public health outcomes, based on available data and knowledge of the process. The outputs of these models are uncertain due to…
In an era of data abundance, statistical evidence is increasingly critical for business and policy decisions. Yet, organizations lack empirical tools to assess the value of evidence-based decision making (EBDM), optimize statistical…
The expected value of information (EVI) is the most powerful measure of sensitivity to uncertainty in a decision model: it measures the potential of information to improve the decision, and hence measures the expected value of outcome.…
In ecological and environmental contexts, management actions must sometimes be chosen urgently. Value of information (VoI) analysis provides a quantitative toolkit for projecting the improved management outcomes expected after making…
We study Monte Carlo estimation of the expected value of sample information (EVSI) which measures the expected benefit of gaining additional information for decision making under uncertainty. EVSI is defined as a nested expectation in which…