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We consider a hidden Markov model, where the signal process, given by a diffusion, is only indirectly observed through some noisy measurements. The article develops a variational method for approximating the hidden states of the signal…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2016-10-26 Tobias Sutter , Arnab Ganguly , Heinz Koeppl

In this paper, we consider a class of inhomogeneous semi-Markov processes directly based on intensity processes for marked point processes. We show that this class satisfies the semi-Markov properties defined elsewhere in the literature. We…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-04-14 Alexander Sokol

We consider a stable driven degenerate stochastic differential equation, whose coefficients satisfy a kind of weak H{\"o}rmander condition. Under mild smoothness assumptions we prove the uniqueness of the martingale problem for the…

Probability · Mathematics 2015-03-06 Lorick Huang , Stephane Menozzi

The study of time-inhomogeneous Markov jump processes is a traditional topic within probability theory that has recently attracted substantial attention in various applications. However, their flexibility also incurs a substantial…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-11-03 Martin Bladt , Oscar Peralta

Time homogeneous polynomial processes are Markov processes whose moments can be calculated easily through matrix exponentials. In this work, we develop a notion of time inhomogeneous polynomial processes where the coeffiecients of the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-06-12 María Fernanda del Carmen Agoitia Hurtado , Thorsten Schmidt

Motivated by applications to proving regularity of solutions to degenerate parabolic equations arising in population genetics, we study existence, uniqueness and the strong Markov property of weak solutions to a class of degenerate…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-06-04 Camelia A. Pop

We establish the Kato-type smoothing property, i.e., global-in-time smoothing estimates with homogeneous weights, for the Schr\"odinger equation on Riemannian symmetric spaces of non-compact type and general rank. These form a rich class of…

Analysis of PDEs · Mathematics 2023-02-09 Vishvesh Kumar , Michael Ruzhansky , Hong-Wei Zhang

In this paper we consider a class of stochastic differential equations driven by subordinate Brownian motion with Markovian switching. We use Malliavin calculus to study the smoothness of the density for the solution under uniform…

Probability · Mathematics 2017-11-27 Xiaobin Sun , Yingchao Xie

A general theory is developed to study individual based models which are discrete in time. We begin by constructing a Markov chain model that converges to a one-dimensional map in the infinite population limit. Stochastic fluctuations are…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-06-03 Joseph D. Challenger , Duccio Fanelli , Alan J. McKane

In this paper we study posterior consistency for different topologies on the parameters for hidden Markov models with finite state space. We first obtain weak and strong posterior consistency for the marginal density function of finitely…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-09 Elodie Vernet

In this paper, we consider a continuous-time Markov process and prove a local limit theorem for the integral of a time-inhomogeneous function of the process. One application is in the study of the fast-oscillating perturbations of linear…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-01-30 Leonid Koralov , Shuo Yan

We prove that, under the H\"ormander criterion on an It\^{o} process, all its martingale observables are smooth. As a consequence, we also obtain a generalized Feynman-Kac formula providing smooth solutions to certain PDE boundary-value…

Probability · Mathematics 2026-05-05 Alex Karrila , Lauri Viitasaari

A nonhomogeneous hidden semi-Markov model is proposed to segment toroidal time series according to a finite number of latent regimes and, simultaneously, estimate the influence of time-varying covariates on the process' survival under each…

Applications · Statistics 2023-12-25 Francesco Lagona , Marco Mingione

In state space models, smoothing refers to the task of estimating a latent stochastic process given noisy measurements related to the process. We propose an unbiased estimator of smoothing expectations. The lack-of-bias property has…

Methodology · Statistics 2018-09-07 Pierre E. Jacob , Fredrik Lindsten , Thomas B. Schön

Consider on a manifold the solution $X$ of a stochastic differential equation driven by a L\'evy process without Brownian part. Sufficient conditions for the smoothness of the law of $X_t$ are given, with particular emphasis on noncompact…

Probability · Mathematics 2013-12-12 Jean Picard , Catherine Savona

We consider a class of infinite-dimensional singular stochastic control problems. These can be thought of as spatial monotone follower problems and find applications in spatial models of production and climate transition. Let…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2026-03-06 Salvatore Federico , Giorgio Ferrari , Frank Riedel , Michael Röckner

The discrete class algorithm presented in this paper is an efficient simulation tool for stochastic processes governed by a reasonably small set of transition rates. The algorithm is presented, its performance compared to prevailing methods…

Computational Physics · Physics 2008-02-03 Hans E. Plesser , Dietmar Wendt

Consider a random Schr\"odinger-type operator of the form $H:=-H_X+V+\xi$ acting on a general graph $\mathscr G=(\mathscr V,\mathscr E)$, where $H_X$ is the generator of a Markov process $X$ on $\mathscr G$, $V$ is a deterministic potential…

Mathematical Physics · Physics 2023-03-13 Pierre Yves Gaudreau Lamarre , Promit Ghosal , Yuchen Liao

We consider a $d$-dimensional branching particle system in a random environment. Suppose that the initial measures converge weakly to a measure with bounded density. Under the Mytnik-Sturm branching mechanism, we prove that the…

Probability · Mathematics 2018-10-19 Yaozhong Hu , David Nualart , Panqiu Xia

We study the properties of a subclass of stochastic processes called discrete time nonlinear Markov chains with an aggregator, which naturally appear in various topics such as strategic queueing systems, inventory dynamics, opinion…

Probability · Mathematics 2025-12-24 Bar Light