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Threshold Autoregressive (TAR) models have been widely used by statisticians for non-linear time series forecasting during the past few decades, due to their simplicity and mathematical properties. On the other hand, in the forecasting…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-17 Rakshitha Godahewa , Geoffrey I. Webb , Daniel Schmidt , Christoph Bergmeir

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-11-25 Tsung-Yu Hsieh , Suhang Wang , Yiwei Sun , Vasant Honavar

Decision trees are ubiquitous in machine learning for their ease of use and interpretability. Yet, these models are not typically employed in reinforcement learning as they cannot be updated online via stochastic gradient descent. We…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-29 Andrew Silva , Taylor Killian , Ivan Dario Jimenez Rodriguez , Sung-Hyun Son , Matthew Gombolay

Time series forecasting, which predicts future values from past observations, plays a central role in many domains and has driven the development of highly accurate neural network models. However, the complexity of these models often limits…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-05 Hiroki Tomioka , Genta Yoshimura

Time series forecasting plays an increasingly important role in modern business decisions. In today's data-rich environment, people often aim to choose the optimal forecasting model for their data. However, identifying the optimal model…

Applications · Statistics 2021-12-17 Xixi Li , Fotios Petropoulos , Yanfei Kang

Deep Learning based models are currently dominating most state-of-the-art solutions for disease prediction. Existing works employ RNNs along with multiple levels of attention mechanisms to provide interpretability. These deep learning…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-06-01 Subhadip Maji , Raghav Bali , Sree Harsha Ankem , Kishore V Ayyadevara

Model selection has been proven an effective strategy for improving accuracy in time series forecasting applications. However, when dealing with hierarchical time series, apart from selecting the most appropriate forecasting model,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-10-30 Mahdi Abolghasemi , Rob J Hyndman , Evangelos Spiliotis , Christoph Bergmeir

Tree ensembles are very popular machine learning models, known for their effectiveness in supervised classification and regression tasks. Their performance derives from aggregating predictions of multiple decision trees, which are renowned…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2025-01-14 Lorenzo Bonasera , Emilio Carrizosa

While Internet of Things (IoT) devices and sensors create continuous streams of information, Big Data infrastructures are deemed to handle the influx of data in real-time. One type of such a continuous stream of information is time series…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-05-05 Elyas Sabeti , Peter X. K. Song , Alfred O. Hero

We present online prediction methods for time series that let us explicitly handle nonstationary artifacts (e.g. trend and seasonality) present in most real time series. Specifically, we show that applying appropriate transformations to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-08-28 Christopher Xie , Avleen Bijral , Juan Lavista Ferres

Tree ensembles, such as random forests and boosted trees, are renowned for their high prediction performance. However, their interpretability is critically limited due to the enormous complexity. In this study, we present a method to make a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-03-01 Satoshi Hara , Kohei Hayashi

With the advent of highly predictive but opaque deep learning models, it has become more important than ever to understand and explain the predictions of such models. Existing approaches define interpretability as the inverse of complexity…

Machine learning algorithms often assume that training samples are independent. When data points are connected by a network, the induced dependency between samples is both a challenge, reducing effective sample size, and an opportunity to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-09-22 Tiffany M. Tang , Elizaveta Levina , Ji Zhu

Nowadays new technologies, and especially artificial intelligence, are more and more established in our society. Big data analysis and machine learning, two sub-fields of artificial intelligence, are at the core of many recent breakthroughs…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2021-06-22 Antonio Sutera

The interpretability of models has become a crucial issue in Machine Learning because of algorithmic decisions' growing impact on real-world applications. Tree ensemble methods, such as Random Forests or XgBoost, are powerful learning tools…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2024-01-19 Giulia Di Teodoro , Marta Monaci , Laura Palagi

Data streams are ubiquitous in modern business and society. In practice, data streams may evolve over time and cannot be stored indefinitely. Effective and transparent machine learning on data streams is thus often challenging. Hoeffding…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-08 Johannes Haug , Klaus Broelemann , Gjergji Kasneci

Tree ensemble models like random forests and gradient boosting machines are widely used in machine learning due to their excellent predictive performance. However, a high-performance ensemble consisting of a large number of decision trees…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-28 Zebin Yang , Agus Sudjianto , Xiaoming Li , Aijun Zhang

Resampling methods such as the bootstrap have proven invaluable in the field of machine learning. However, the applicability of traditional bootstrap methods is limited when dealing with large streams of dependent data, such as time series…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-28 Nicolai Palm , Thomas Nagler

This paper presents an approach integrating explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) techniques with adaptive learning to enhance energy consumption prediction models, with a focus on handling data distribution shifts. Leveraging SHAP…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-08 Tobias Clement , Hung Truong Thanh Nguyen , Nils Kemmerzell , Mohamed Abdelaal , Davor Stjelja

Various deep learning models, especially some latest Transformer-based approaches, have greatly improved the state-of-art performance for long-term time series forecasting.However, those transformer-based models suffer a severe…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-27 Tian Zhou , Jianqing Zhu , Xue Wang , Ziqing Ma , Qingsong Wen , Liang Sun , Rong Jin