Related papers: Enhancing CVaR portfolio optimisation performance …
We analyze correlations among stock returns via a series of widely adopted parameters which we refer to as explanatory variables. We subsequently exploit the results to propose a long only quantitative adaptive technique to construct a…
We develop a new methodology for forecasting matrix-valued time series with historical matrix data and auxiliary vector time series data. We focus on a time series of matrices defined on a static 2-D spatial grid and an auxiliary time…
In this paper we propose a multivariate quantile regression framework to forecast Value at Risk (VaR) and Expected Shortfall (ES) of multiple financial assets simultaneously, extending Taylor (2019). We generalize the Multivariate…
Recent studies stressed the fact that covariance matrices computed from empirical financial time series appear to contain a high amount of noise. This makes the classical Markowitz Mean-Variance Optimization model unable to correctly…
We introduce a new set of consistent measures of risks, in terms of the semi-invariants of pdf's, such that the centered moments and the cumulants of the portfolio distribution of returns that put more emphasis on the tail the…
This paper introduces MarketGAN, a factor-based generative framework for high-dimensional asset return generation under severe data scarcity. We embed an explicit asset-pricing factor structure as an economic inductive bias and generate…
Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…
Managing insurance and financial risk when data is limited is a key task in the insurance industry. In this paper, we focus on cases where the risk distribution is modeled as a mixture with some components estimable to high precision or…
Solving portfolio management problems using deep reinforcement learning has been getting much attention in finance for a few years. We have proposed a new method using experts signals and historical price data to feed into our reinforcement…
This study develops and evaluates a deep reinforcement learning framework for dynamic portfolio allocation across global equity markets. The Soft Actor-Critic algorithm is used to learn continuous portfolio weights within a Markov Decision…
In this paper, we propose a novel variable selection approach in the framework of sparse high-dimensional GLARMA models. It consists in combining the estimation of the autoregressive moving average (ARMA) coefficients of these models with…
This study is the first to analyze the performance of a time-series foundation AI model for Value-at-Risk (VaR), which essentially forecasts the left-tail quantiles of returns. Foundation models, pre-trained on diverse datasets, can be…
This research proposes an enhancement to the innovative portfolio optimization approach using the G-Learning algorithm, combined with parametric optimization via the GIRL algorithm (G-learning approach to the setting of Inverse…
In this paper, we present an integrated approach to portfolio construction and optimization, leveraging high-performance computing capabilities. We first explore diverse pairings of generative model forecasts and objective functions used…
In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…
We propose a multicountry quantile factor augmeneted vector autoregression (QFAVAR) to model heterogeneities both across countries and across characteristics of the distributions of macroeconomic time series. The presence of quantile…
The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) is a powerful tool and has been well studied. This model class helps to identify additive regression structure. Via available test procedures one may identify the regression structure even sharper if…
In this paper, we propose a novel and efficient two-stage variable selection approach for sparse GLARMA models, which are pervasive for modeling discrete-valued time series. Our approach consists in iteratively combining the estimation of…
Accurate forecasting of the Volatility-Covariance Matrix (VCV) is central to regulatory capital adequacy processes such as the Internal Capital Adequacy Assessment Process (ICAAP) and the Comprehensive Capital Analysis and Review (CCAR).…
Risk control and optimal diversification constitute a major focus in the finance and insurance industries as well as, more or less consciously, in our everyday life. We present a discussion of the characterization of risks and of the…