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Human decision-making underlies all economic behavior. For the past four decades, human decision-making under uncertainty has continued to be explained by theoretical models based on prospect theory, a framework that was awarded the Nobel…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-06-21 David D. Bourgin , Joshua C. Peterson , Daniel Reichman , Thomas L. Griffiths , Stuart J. Russell

Discovering causal relationships from observational data is a challenging task that relies on assumptions connecting statistical quantities to graphical or algebraic causal models. In this work, we focus on widely employed assumptions for…

Methodology · Statistics 2024-03-20 Jonas Wahl , Urmi Ninad , Jakob Runge

We introduce an approach to inferring the causal architecture of stochastic dynamical systems that extends rate distortion theory to use causal shielding---a natural principle of learning. We study two distinct cases of causal inference:…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2010-08-23 Susanne Still , James P. Crutchfield , Christopher J. Ellison

We will argue that a phenomenological analysis of consciousness, similar to that of Husserl, shows that the effects of phenomenal qualities shape our perception of the world. It also shows the way the physical and mathematical sciences…

History and Philosophy of Physics · Physics 2024-09-04 Rodolfo Gambini , Jorge Pullin

We examine how causal beliefs affect an agent's choices and how feedback on those choices leads to updated causal beliefs. Building on the structural-equations framework for modeling causality, we first examine the general problem of…

Theoretical Economics · Economics 2026-03-11 Joseph Y. Halpern , Evan Piermont , Marie-Louise Vierø

Causal knowledge is vital for effective reasoning in science, as causal relations, unlike correlations, allow one to reason about the outcomes of interventions. Algorithms that can discover causal relations from observational data are based…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-11-12 Anish Dhir , Ciarán M. Lee

Consciousness has been hypothesized to operate as a global workspace, which accesses and integrates multimodal information in a unified manner, supports expectation violation monitoring and reduction, and the motivation, programming and…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-11-26 D. Rudrauf , G. Sergeant-Perthuis , O. Belli , Y. Tisserand , G. Di Marzo Serugendo

We present a new approach to the global fairness verification of tree-based classifiers. Given a tree-based classifier and a set of sensitive features potentially leading to discrimination, our analysis synthesizes sufficient conditions for…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-28 Stefano Calzavara , Lorenzo Cazzaro , Claudio Lucchese , Federico Marcuzzi

A large repertoire of spatiotemporal activity patterns in the brain is the basis for adaptive behaviour. Understanding the mechanism by which the brain's hundred billion neurons and hundred trillion synapses manage to produce such a range…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2010-10-14 Dante R. Chialvo

Decades of psychological research have been aimed at modeling how people learn features and categories. The empirical validation of these theories is often based on artificial stimuli with simple representations. Recently, deep neural…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2018-07-25 Joshua C. Peterson , Joshua T. Abbott , Thomas L. Griffiths

This paper develops a framework for identification, estimation, and inference on the causal mechanisms driving endogenous social network formation. Identification is challenging because of unobserved confounders and reverse causality;…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-21 Maximilian Kasy , Elizabeth Linos , Sanaz Mobasseri

Originally developed as a theory of consciousness, integrated information theory provides a mathematical framework to quantify the causal irreducibility of systems and subsets of units in the system. Specifically, mechanism integrated…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-23 Alireza Zaeemzadeh , Giulio Tononi

The goal of Causal Discovery is to find automated search methods for learning causal structures from observational data. In some cases all variables of the interested causal mechanism are measured, and the task is to predict the effects one…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-01-11 Shuyan Wang

We are not only observers but also actors of reality. Our capability to intervene and alter the course of some events in the space and time surrounding us is an essential component of how we build our model of the world. In this doctoral…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2023-09-19 Gilles Blondel

While neural models show remarkable accuracy on individual predictions, their internal beliefs can be inconsistent across examples. In this paper, we formalize such inconsistency as a generalization of prediction error. We propose a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2019-09-16 Tao Li , Vivek Gupta , Maitrey Mehta , Vivek Srikumar

We develop a mathematical and interpretative foundation for the enterprise of decision-theoretic statistical causality (DT), which is a straightforward way of representing and addressing causal questions. DT reframes causal inference as…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-04-28 A. Philip Dawid

Decision analysis deals with modeling and enhancing decision processes. A principal challenge in improving behavior is in obtaining a transparent description of existing behavior in the first place. In this paper, we develop an expressive,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2023-10-31 Daniel Jarrett , Alihan Hüyük , Mihaela van der Schaar

Predictive processing and active inference posit that the brain is a system performing Bayesian inference on the environment. By virtue of this, a prominent interpretation of predictive processing states that the generative model (a POMDP)…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2025-08-26 Manuel Baltieri , Filippo Torresan , Tomoya Nakai

Causal inference is a science with multi-disciplinary evolution and applications. On the one hand, it measures effects of treatments in observational data based on experimental designs and rigorous statistical inference to draw causal…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-09-05 Jingying Zeng , Run Wang

Introduction: In contrast to current AI technology, natural intelligence -- the kind of autonomous intelligence that is realized in the brains of animals and humans to attain in their natural environment goals defined by a repertoire of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-03 Christoph von der Malsburg , Thilo Stadelmann , Benjamin F. Grewe
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