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Bayesian full waveform inversion (FWI) offers uncertainty-aware subsurface models; however, posterior sampling directly on observed seismic shot records is rarely practical at the field scale because each sample requires numerous…

Geophysics · Physics 2025-12-16 Mohammad H. Taufik , Tariq Alkhalifah

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-06 Nan Feng , Xun Huan

We propose a family of variational approximations to Bayesian posterior distributions, called $\alpha$-VB, with provable statistical guarantees. The standard variational approximation is a special case of $\alpha$-VB with $\alpha=1$. When…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2018-02-09 Yun Yang , Debdeep Pati , Anirban Bhattacharya

Reconstructing the evolutionary history relating a collection of molecular sequences is the main subject of modern Bayesian phylogenetic inference. However, the commonly used Markov chain Monte Carlo methods can be inefficient due to the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-08-12 Tianyu Xie , Frederick A. Matsen , Marc A. Suchard , Cheng Zhang

We develop unbiased implicit variational inference (UIVI), a method that expands the applicability of variational inference by defining an expressive variational family. UIVI considers an implicit variational distribution obtained in a…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-02-07 Michalis K. Titsias , Francisco J. R. Ruiz

We propose a method for estimating the posterior distribution of a standard geostatistical model. After choosing the model formulation and specifying a prior, we use normal mixture densities to approximate the posterior distribution. The…

Methodology · Statistics 2014-09-10 Zepu Zhang

Variational inference (VI) has become the method of choice for fitting many modern probabilistic models. However, practitioners are faced with a fragmented literature that offers a bewildering array of algorithmic options. First, the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-29 Thang D. Bui , Cuong V. Nguyen , Siddharth Swaroop , Richard E. Turner

Current methods for learning graphical models with latent variables and a fixed structure estimate optimal values for the model parameters. Whereas this approach usually produces overfitting and suboptimal generalization performance,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2013-01-30 Hagai Attias

Developing efficient solutions for inference problems in intelligent sensor networks is crucial for the next generation of location, tracking, and mapping services. This paper develops a scalable distributed probabilistic inference…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-10-24 Parth Paritosh , Nikolay Atanasov , Sonia Martinez

Nested error regression models are useful tools for analysis of grouped data, especially in the case of small area estimation. This paper suggests a nested error regression model using uncertain random effects in which the random effect in…

Methodology · Statistics 2017-02-28 Shonosuke Sugasawa , Tatsuya Kubokawa

This paper considers a Bayesian approach for inclusion detection in nonlinear inverse problems using two known and popular push-forward prior distributions: the star-shaped and level set prior distributions. We analyze the convergence of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2023-08-29 Babak Maboudi Afkham , Kim Knudsen , Aksel Kaastrup Rasmussen , Tanja Tarvainen

One of the fundamental problems in Bayesian statistics is the approximation of the posterior distribution. Gibbs sampler and coordinate ascent variational inference are renownedly utilized approximation techniques that rely on stochastic…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2021-06-18 Se Yoon Lee

Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) hold great promise as a flexible and principled solution to deal with uncertainty when learning from finite data. Among approaches to realize probabilistic inference in deep neural networks, variational Bayes…

We propose a general framework for obtaining probabilistic solutions to PDE-based inverse problems. Bayesian methods are attractive for uncertainty quantification but assume knowledge of the likelihood model or data generation process. This…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-09-28 Youngsoo Baek , Wilkins Aquino , Sayan Mukherjee

Variational inference is an approximation framework for Bayesian inference that seeks to improve quantified uncertainty in predictions by optimizing a simplified distribution over parameters to stand in for the full posterior. Capturing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-09-12 Jed A. Duersch

Bayesian inverse problems use observed data to update a prior probability distribution for an unknown state or parameter of a scientific system to a posterior distribution conditioned on the data. In many applications, the unknown parameter…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-05-12 Josie König , Elizabeth Qian , Melina A. Freitag

Approximating complex probability densities is a core problem in modern statistics. In this paper, we introduce the concept of Variational Inference (VI), a popular method in machine learning that uses optimization techniques to estimate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-11-23 Ankush Ganguly , Samuel W. F. Earp

A quality-Bayesian approach, combining the direct sampling method and the Bayesian inversion, is proposed to reconstruct the locations and intensities of the unknown acoustic sources using partial data. First, we extend the direct sampling…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2020-04-10 Zhaoxing Li , Yanfang Liu , Jiguang Sun , Liwei Xu

We propose Diffusion Model Variational Inference (DMVI), a novel method for automated approximate inference in probabilistic programming languages (PPLs). DMVI utilizes diffusion models as variational approximations to the true posterior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-11-23 Simon Dirmeier , Fernando Perez-Cruz

The paper solves the problem of optimal portfolio choice when the parameters of the asset returns distribution, like the mean vector and the covariance matrix are unknown and have to be estimated by using historical data of the asset…

Statistical Finance · Quantitative Finance 2023-04-19 David Bauder , Taras Bodnar , Nestor Parolya , Wolfgang Schmid