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This study investigates an asymptotically minimax optimal algorithm in the two-armed fixed-budget best-arm identification (BAI) problem. Given two treatment arms, the objective is to identify the arm with the highest expected outcome…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-01-23 Masahiro Kato

We consider the problem of estimating personalized treatment policies that are "externally valid" or "generalizable": they perform well in target populations that differ from the experimental (or training) population from which the data are…

Econometrics · Economics 2025-11-10 Christopher Adjaho , Timothy Christensen

We study agents acting in an unknown environment where the agent's goal is to find a robust policy. We consider robust policies as policies that achieve high cumulative rewards for all possible environments. To this end, we consider agents…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-10-22 Raghav Bongole , Amaury Gouverneur , Borja Rodríguez-Gálvez , Tobias J. Oechtering , Mikael Skoglund

Conventional treatment policies map patient covariates to a single recommended intervention in order to maximize expected clinical outcomes. Although a rich body of causal inference methods has been developed to estimate such policies,…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-20 Laura Fuentes-Vicente , Mathieu Even , Gaëlle Dormion , Antoine Chambaz , Uri Shalit , Julie Josse

We develop a general theory of omitted variable bias for a wide range of common causal parameters, including (but not limited to) averages of potential outcomes, average treatment effects, average causal derivatives, and policy effects from…

Econometrics · Economics 2024-05-28 Victor Chernozhukov , Carlos Cinelli , Whitney Newey , Amit Sharma , Vasilis Syrgkanis

When making treatment selection decisions, it is essential to include a causal effect estimation analysis to compare potential outcomes under different treatments or controls, assisting in optimal selection. However, merely estimating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-10-08 Sherly Alfonso-Sánchez , Kristina P. Sendova , Cristián Bravo

Recent literature on policy learning has primarily focused on regret bounds of the learned policy. We provide a new perspective by developing a unified semiparametric efficiency framework for policy learning, allowing for general treatments…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-02-10 Yue Fang , Geert Ridder , Haitian Xie

We consider a stochastic bandit problem with infinitely many arms. In this setting, the learner has no chance of trying all the arms even once and has to dedicate its limited number of samples only to a certain number of arms. All previous…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2015-05-19 Alexandra Carpentier , Michal Valko

When the difference between treatments in a clinical trial is estimated by a difference in means, then it is well known that randomization ensures unbiassed estimation, even if no account is taken of important baseline covariates. However,…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2014-07-22 J. N. S. Matthews , Nuri H. Badi

A decision rule is epsilon-minimax if it is minimax up to an additive factor epsilon. We present an algorithm for provably obtaining epsilon-minimax solutions for a class of statistical decision problems. In particular, we are interested in…

We consider the problem of controlling a possibly unknown linear dynamical system with adversarial perturbations, adversarially chosen convex loss functions, and partially observed states, known as non-stochastic control. We introduce a…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-06-26 Max Simchowitz , Karan Singh , Elad Hazan

In randomized trials involving multiple treatments, bivariate survival outcomes present significant analytical challenges for making decisions. This paper addresses the problem of deriving optimal individualized treatment rules to maximize…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-05-29 Kun Ren , Yifan Cui , Wen Su

Modeling the purposeful behavior of imperfect agents from a small number of observations is a challenging task. When restricted to the single-agent decision-theoretic setting, inverse optimal control techniques assume that observed behavior…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2013-08-19 Kevin Waugh , Brian D. Ziebart , J. Andrew Bagnell

This paper considers the estimation of treatment assignment rules when the policy maker faces a general budget or resource constraint. Utilizing the PAC-Bayesian framework, we propose new treatment assignment rules that allow for flexible…

Econometrics · Economics 2023-06-12 Daniel F. Pellatt

Classification with rejection emerges as a learning paradigm which allows models to abstain from making predictions. The predominant approach is to alter the supervised learning pipeline by augmenting typical loss functions, letting model…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-09 Alexander Soen , Hisham Husain , Philip Schulz , Vu Nguyen

Some of the most compelling applications of online convex optimization, including online prediction and classification, are unconstrained: the natural feasible set is R^n. Existing algorithms fail to achieve sub-linear regret in this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-11-13 Matthew Streeter , H. Brendan McMahan

Using only retrospective data, we study the problem of predicting treatment effects for the same treatment/policy implemented in a different location or time period. We propose a distributionally robust estimator that minimizes the…

Econometrics · Economics 2026-04-29 Ruonan Xu , Xiye Yang

The minmax regret problem for combinatorial optimization under uncertainty can be viewed as a zero-sum game played between an optimizing player and an adversary, where the optimizing player selects a solution and the adversary selects costs…

Discrete Mathematics · Computer Science 2014-09-23 Andrew Mastin , Patrick Jaillet , Sang Chin

Estimation and evaluation of individualized treatment rules have been studied extensively, but real-world treatment resource constraints have received limited attention in existing methods. We investigate a setting in which treatment is…

Methodology · Statistics 2022-11-24 Hongxiang Qiu , Marco Carone , Alex Luedtke

This work studies online episodic tabular Markov decision processes (MDPs) with known transitions and develops best-of-both-worlds algorithms that achieve refined data-dependent regret bounds in the adversarial regime and variance-dependent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-03 Mingyi Li , Taira Tsuchiya , Kenji Yamanishi