Related papers: The implied volatility surface (also) is path-depe…

We introduce a fast and flexible Machine Learning (ML) framework for pricing derivative products whose valuation depends on volatility surfaces. By parameterizing volatility surfaces with the 5-parameter stochastic volatility inspired (SVI)…

In this note, we develop stock option price approximations for a model which takes both the risk o default and the stochastic volatility into account. We also let the intensity of defaults be influenced by the volatility. We show that it…

We extend upon the saddle-point equation presented in [1] to derive large-time model-implied volatility smiles, providing its theoretical foundation and studying its applications in classical models. As long as characteristic function…

This paper empirically assesses predictions of Goodwin's model of cyclical growth regarding demand and distributive regimes when integrating the real and financial sectors. In addition, it evaluates how financial and employment shocks…

We compute the value of a variance swap when the underlying is modeled as a Markov process time changed by a L\'{e}vy subordinator. In this framework, the underlying may exhibit jumps with a state-dependent L\'{e}vy measure, local…

We show the existence and uniqueness of a continuous solution to a path-dependent volatility model introduced by Guyon and Lekeufack (2023) to model the price of an equity index and its spot volatility. The considered model for the trend…

In this paper we derive a efficient Monte Carlo approximation for the price of path-dependent derivatives under the multiscale stochastic volatility models of Fouque \textit{et al}. Using the formulation of this pricing problem under the…

We address the information content of European option prices about volatility in terms of the Fisher information matrix. We assume that observed option prices are centred on the theoretical price provided by Heston's model disturbed by…

In this chapter, we consider volatility swap, variance swap and VIX future pricing under different stochastic volatility models and jump diffusion models which are commonly used in financial market. We use convexity correction approximation…

We propose a probabilistic framework for pricing derivatives, which acknowledges that information and beliefs are subjective. Market prices can be translated into implied probabilities. In particular, futures imply returns for these implied…

We consider the problem of calculating risk-neutral implied volatilities of European options without relying on option mid prices but solely on bid and ask prices. We provide an approach, based on the conic finance paradigm, that allows to…

We introduce a new formulation of asset trading games in continuous time in the framework of the game-theoretic probability established by Shafer and Vovk (Probability and Finance: It's Only a Game! (2001) Wiley). In our formulation, the…

Options with maturities below one week, hereafter "ultra-short-term" options, have seen a sharp increase in trading activity in recent years. Yet, these instruments are difficult to price jointly using classical pricing models due to the…

We introduce a new class of continuous-time models of the stochastic volatility of asset prices. The models can simultaneously incorporate roughness and slowly decaying autocorrelations, including proper long memory, which are two stylized…

Bayesian predictive inference propagates parameter uncertainty to quantities of interest through the posterior-predictive distribution. In practice, this is typically performed using a two-stage procedure: first approximating the posterior…

We introduce a multi-factor stochastic volatility model based on the CIR/Heston stochastic volatility process. In order to capture the Samuelson effect displayed by commodity futures contracts, we add expiry-dependent exponential damping…

The discrepancy between realized volatility and the market's view of volatility has been known to predict individual equity options at the monthly horizon. It is not clear how this predictability depends on a forecast's ability to predict…

For quantitative trading risk management purposes, we present a novel idea: the realized local volatility surface. Concisely, it stands for the conditional expected volatility when sudden market behaviors of the underlying occur. One is…

We develop a stochastic volatility framework for modeling multiple currencies based on CBI-time-changed L\'evy processes. The proposed framework captures the typical risk characteristics of FX markets and is coherent with the symmetries of…

In an era when derivatives is getting popular, risk management has gradually become the core content of modern finance. In order to study how to accurately estimate the volatility of the S&P 500 index, after introducing the theoretical…