Related papers: The implied volatility surface (also) is path-depe…
We introduce a Path Shadowing Monte-Carlo method, which provides prediction of future paths, given any generative model. At any given date, it averages future quantities over generated price paths whose past history matches, or `shadows',…
Empirical studies have emphasized that the equity implied volatility is characterized by a negative skew inversely proportional to the square root of the time-to-maturity. We examine the short-time-to-maturity behavior of the implied…
This study delves into the intricate realm of risk evaluation within the domain of specific financial derivatives, notably options. Unlike other financial instruments, like bonds, options are susceptible to broader risks. A distinctive…
In financial terms, an implied volatility surface can be described by its term structure, its skewness and its overall volatility level. We use a PCA variational auto-encoder model to perfectly represent these descriptors into a latent…
Implied volatilities form a well-known structure of smile or surface which accommodates the Bachelier model and observed market prices of interest rate options. For the swaptions that we study, three parameters are taken into account for…
Generating realistic synthetic option prices requires implied volatility as an input, yet implied volatility is itself derived from observed option prices, creating a circular dependency that limits synthetic data for machine-learning and…
This paper investigates how realized and option implied volatilities are related to the future quantiles of commodity returns. Whereas realized volatility measures ex-post uncertainty, volatility implied by option prices reveals the…
The implied volatility skew has received relatively little attention in the literature on short-term asymptotics for financial models with jumps, despite its importance in model selection and calibration. We rectify this by providing…
A volatility surface is an important tool for pricing and hedging derivatives. The surface shows the volatility that is implied by the market price of an option on an asset as a function of the option's strike price and maturity. Often,…
In the regime switching extension of Black-Scholes-Merton model of asset price dynamics, one assumes that the volatility coefficient evolves as a hidden pure jump process. Under the assumption of Markov regime switching, we have considered…
We explore credit risk pricing by modeling equity as a call option and debt as the difference between the firm's asset value and a put option, following the structural framework of the Merton model. Our approach proceeds in two stages:…
The Black-Scholes implied volatility skew at the money of SPX options is known to obey a power law with respect to the time-to-maturity. We construct a model of the underlying asset price process which is dynamically consistent to the power…
In this paper we study the short-time behavior of the at-the-money implied volatility for arithmetic Asian options with fixed strike price. The asset price is assumed to follow the Black-Scholes model with a general stochastic volatility…
In this paper we develop a novel neural network model for predicting implied volatility surface. Prior financial domain knowledge is taken into account. A new activation function that incorporates volatility smile is proposed, which is used…
We present a neural network (NN) approach to fit and predict implied volatility surfaces (IVSs). Atypically to standard NN applications, financial industry practitioners use such models equally to replicate market prices and to value other…
Several asymptotic results for the implied volatility generated by a rough volatility model have been obtained in recent years (notably in the small-maturity regime), providing a better understanding of the shapes of the volatility surface…
We investigate whether it is possible to formulate option pricing and hedging models without using probability. We present a model that is consistent with two notions of volatility: a historical volatility consistent with statistical…
The implied volatility surface (IVS) is a fundamental building block in computational finance. We provide a survey of methodologies for constructing such surfaces. We also discuss various topics which can influence the successful…
We consider the problem of valuing a European option written on an asset whose dynamics are described by an exponential L\'evy-type model. In our framework, both the volatility and jump-intensity are allowed to vary stochastically in time…
We use modifications of the Adams method and very fast and accurate sinh-acceleration method of the Fourier inversion (iFT) (S.Boyarchenko and Levendorski\u{i}, IJTAF 2019, v.22) to evaluate prices of vanilla options; for options of…