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In high-stakes scenarios, such as medical imaging applications, it is critical to equip the predictions of a regression model with reliable confidence intervals. Recently, Conformal Prediction (CP) has emerged as a powerful statistical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-09-19 Yahav Cohen , Jacob Goldberger , Tom Tirer

Conformal prediction is a learning framework controlling prediction coverage of prediction sets, which can be built on any learning algorithm for point prediction. This work proposes a learning framework named conformal loss-controlling…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-01-24 Di Wang , Ping Wang , Zhong Ji , Xiaojun Yang , Hongyue Li

Rigorous uncertainty quantification is essential for the safe deployment of autonomous systems in unconstrained environments. Conformal Prediction (CP) provides a distribution-free framework for this task, yet its standard formulations rely…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-14 Renukanandan Tumu , Aditya Singh , Rahul Mangharam

Research on human-AI teams usually provides experts with a single label, which ignores the uncertainty in a model's recommendation. Conformal prediction (CP) is a well established line of research that focuses on building a theoretically…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2022-05-27 Varun Babbar , Umang Bhatt , Adrian Weller

Successful application of machine learning models to real-world prediction problems, e.g. financial forecasting and personalized medicine, has proved to be challenging, because such settings require limiting and quantifying the uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2020-09-15 Yao Zhang , William Zame , Mihaela van der Schaar

We develop a predictive inference procedure that combines conformal prediction (CP) with unconditional quantile regression (QR) -- a commonly used tool in econometrics that involves regressing the recentered influence function (RIF) of the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-05 Ahmed M. Alaa , Zeshan Hussain , David Sontag

Given that machine learning algorithms are increasingly being deployed to aid in high stakes decision-making, uncertainty quantification methods that wrap around these black box models such as conformal prediction have received much…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-02-09 Kayla E. Scharfstein , Arun Kumar Kuchibhotla

The Super Learner (SL) is a widely used ensemble method that combines predictions from a library of learners based on their predictive performance. Interval predictions are of considerable practical interest because they allow uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2026-04-27 Zhanli Wu , Fabrizio Leisen , Miguel-Angel Luque-Fernandez , F. Javier Rubio

Conformal unlearning aims to ensure that a trained conformal predictor miscovers data points with specific shared characteristics, such as those from a particular label class, associated with a specific user, or belonging to a defined…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-13 Yahya Alkhatib , Muhammad Ahmar Jamal , Wee Peng Tay

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) excel in diverse tasks, yet their applications in high-stakes domains are often hampered by unreliable predictions. Although numerous uncertainty quantification methods have been proposed to address this…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-22 Tianyi Zhao , Jian Kang , Lu Cheng

Conventional frequentist learning is known to yield poorly calibrated models that fail to reliably quantify the uncertainty of their decisions. Bayesian learning can improve calibration, but formal guarantees apply only under restrictive…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-07 Sangwoo Park , Kfir M. Cohen , Osvaldo Simeone

With the proliferation of increasingly complicated Deep Learning architectures, data synthesis is a highly promising technique to address the demand of data-hungry models. However, reliably assessing the quality of a 'synthesiser' model's…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-05 Julia A. Meister , Khuong An Nguyen

Reliable uncertainty quantification is crucial for the trustworthiness of machine learning applications. Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP) offers a distribution-free framework for generating prediction sets or intervals with…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-25 A. A. Balinsky , A. D. Balinsky

When multi-agent systems (MAS) fail, identifying where the decisive error occurred is the first step for automated recovery to an earlier state. Error attribution remains a fundamental challenge due to the long interaction traces that large…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-11 Naihe Feng , Yi Sui , Shiyi Hou , Ga Wu , Jesse C. Cresswell

In regression problems where there is no known true underlying model, conformal prediction methods enable prediction intervals to be constructed without any assumptions on the distribution of the underlying data, except that the training…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-01-31 Wenyu Chen , Kelli-Jean Chun , Rina Foygel Barber

Credal sets are sets of probability distributions that are considered as candidates for an imprecisely known ground-truth distribution. In machine learning, they have recently attracted attention as an appealing formalism for uncertainty…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2024-02-19 Alireza Javanmardi , David Stutz , Eyke Hüllermeier

Weighted conformal prediction (WCP) has been commonly used to quantify prediction uncertainty under covariate shift. However, the effectiveness of WCP relies heavily on the degree of overlap between the training and test covariate…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-04-02 Mufang Ying , Wenge Guo , Koulik Khamaru , Ying Hung

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

Conformal prediction (CP) is an emerging uncertainty quantification framework that allows us to construct a prediction set to cover the true label with a pre-specified marginal or conditional probability. Although the valid coverage…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-12-09 Yuanjie Shi , Subhankar Ghosh , Taha Belkhouja , Janardhan Rao Doppa , Yan Yan

In this paper, we consider a wireless federated inference scenario in which devices and a server share a pre-trained machine learning model. The devices communicate statistical information about their local data to the server over a common…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2023-12-18 Meiyi Zhu , Matteo Zecchin , Sangwoo Park , Caili Guo , Chunyan Feng , Osvaldo Simeone