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This paper investigates Monte Carlo (MC) methods to estimate probabilities of rare events associated with solutions to the $d$-dimensional McKean-Vlasov stochastic differential equation (MV-SDE). MV-SDEs are usually approximated using a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2024-10-15 Nadhir Ben Rached , Abdul-Lateef Haji-Ali , Shyam Mohan Subbiah Pillai , Raúl Tempone

The multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method has been used for a wide variety of stochastic applications. In this paper we consider its use in situations in which input random variables can be replaced by similar approximate random variables…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2022-04-08 Mike Giles , Oliver Sheridan-Methven

Population Monte Carlo (PMC) sampling methods are powerful tools for approximating distributions of static unknowns given a set of observations. These methods are iterative in nature: at each step they generate samples from a proposal…

Computation · Statistics 2022-01-17 Víctor Elvira , Luca Martino , David Luengo , Mónica F. Bugallo

Recent success in Deep Reinforcement Learning (DRL) methods has shown that policy optimization with respect to an off-policy distribution via importance sampling is effective for sample reuse. In this paper, we show that the use of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-07 Zichuan Lin , Xiapeng Wu , Mingfei Sun , Deheng Ye , Qiang Fu , Wei Yang , Wei Liu

By their very nature, rare event probabilities are expensive to compute; they are also delicate to estimate as their value strongly depends on distributional assumptions on the model parameters. Hence, understanding the sensitivity of the…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2021-10-28 Michael Merritt , Alen Alexanderian , Pierre Gremaud

The estimation of rare event or failure probabilities in high dimensions is of interest in many areas of science and technology. We consider problems where the rare event is expressed in terms of a computationally costly numerical model.…

Computation · Statistics 2020-06-11 Felipe Uribe , Iason Papaioannou , Youssef M. Marzouk , Daniel Straub

We study the multi-terminal remote estimation problem under a rate constraint, in which the goal of the encoder is to help each decoder estimate a function over a certain distribution -- while the distribution is known only to the encoder,…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Maximilian Egger , Rawad Bitar , Antonia Wachter-Zeh , Nir Weinberger , Deniz Gündüz

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…

Computation · Statistics 2022-11-07 Ivis Kerama , Thomas Thorne , Richard G. Everitt

Monte Carlo and Quasi-Monte Carlo methods present a convenient approach for approximating the expected value of a random variable. Algorithms exist to adaptively sample the random variable until a user defined absolute error tolerance is…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2023-11-14 Aleksei G. Sorokin , Jagadeeswaran Rathinavel

Multicanonical MCMC (Multicanonical Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Multicanonical Monte Carlo) is discussed as a method of rare event sampling. Starting from a review of the generic framework of importance sampling, multicanonical MCMC is…

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2014-10-20 Yukito Iba , Nen Saito , Akimasa Kitajima

This article reviews the application of advanced Monte Carlo techniques in the context of Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC). MLMC is a strategy employed to compute expectations which can be biased in some sense, for instance, by using the…

Computation · Statistics 2017-04-25 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Carina Suciu

The simulation of the expectation of a stochastic quantity E[Y] by Monte Carlo methods is known to be computationally expensive especially if the stochastic quantity or its approximation Y_n is expensive to simulate, e.g., the solution of a…

Probability · Mathematics 2023-12-06 Annika Lang , Andreas Petersson

The multilevel Monte Carlo method is applied to an academic example in the field of electromagnetism. The method exhibits a reduced variance by assigning the samples to multiple models with a varying spatial resolution. For the given…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2017-09-26 Armin Galetzka , Zeger Bontinck , Ulrich Römer , Sebastian Schöps

This paper studies multi-level stochastic approximation algorithms. Our aim is to extend the scope of the multilevel Monte Carlo method recently introduced by Giles (Giles 2008) to the framework of stochastic optimization by means of…

Probability · Mathematics 2014-08-12 Noufel Frikha

Monte Carlo methods can provide accurate p-value estimates of word counting test statistics and are easy to implement. They are especially attractive when an asymptotic theory is absent or when either the search sequence or the word pattern…

Applications · Statistics 2008-12-01 Hock Peng Chan , Nancy R. Zhang , Louis H. Y. Chen

Importance sampling Monte-Carlo methods are widely used for the approximation of expectations with respect to partially known probability measures. In this paper we study a deterministic version of such an estimator based on quasi-Monte…

Computation · Statistics 2024-12-20 Josef Dick , Daniel Rudolf , Houying Zhu

Large-scale rare events data are commonly encountered in practice. To tackle the massive rare events data, we propose a novel distributed estimation method for logistic regression in a distributed system. For a distributed framework, we…

Methodology · Statistics 2023-04-06 Xuetong Li , Xuening Zhu , Hansheng Wang

Accurate and efficient estimation of rare events probabilities is of significant importance, since often the occurrences of such events have widespread impacts. The focus in this work is on precisely quantifying these probabilities, often…

Computation · Statistics 2019-09-11 Hamed Nikbakht , Konstantinos G. Papakonstantinou

A sampling procedure for the transition matrix Monte Carlo method is introduced that generates the density of states function over a wide parameter range with minimal coding effort.

Statistical Mechanics · Physics 2016-03-23 David Yevick

Slice sampling is a well-established Markov chain Monte Carlo method for (approximate) sampling of target distributions which are only known up to a normalizing constant. The method is based on choosing a new state on a slice, i.e., a…

Computation · Statistics 2025-12-22 Kevin Bitterlich , Daniel Rudolf , Björn Sprungk