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We investigate the distribution of partisanship in a cross-section of ten diverse States to elucidate how votes translate into seats won and other metrics. Markov chain simulations taking into account partisanship distribution agree…

This article presents a novel method to sampling on manifolds based on the Dirichlet distribution. The proposed strategy allows to completely respect the underlying manifold around which data is observed, and to do massive samplings with…

Probabilistic, hierarchically coherent forecasting is a key problem in many practical forecasting applications -- the goal is to obtain coherent probabilistic predictions for a large number of time series arranged in a pre-specified tree…

Predicting the winner of an election is a favorite problem both for news media pundits and computational social choice theorists. Since it is often infeasible to elicit the preferences of all the voters in a typical prediction scenario, a…

Recent research has led to the development of MCMC algorithms with likelihood-informed proposals when targeting posterior distributions supported on discrete state spaces. Our work is placed within this field and puts forward a new MCMC…

The map of elections framework is a methodology for visualizing and analyzing election datasets. So far, the framework was restricted to elections that have equal numbers of candidates, equal numbers of voters, and where all the (ordinal)…

Dirichlet distributions are probability measures on the unit simplex. They are often used as prior distributions in modeling categorical data, such as in topic analysis of text data. Motivated by this application, we consider Monte Carlo…

How often will elections end in landslides? What is the probability for a head-to-head race? Analyzing ballot results from several large countries rather anomalous and yet unexplained distributions have been observed. We identify tactical…

With the widespread success of deep neural networks in science and technology, it is becoming increasingly important to quantify the uncertainty of the predictions produced by deep learning. In this paper, we introduce a new method that…

Estimating statistical models within sensor networks requires distributed algorithms, in which both data and computation are distributed across the nodes of the network. We propose a general approach for distributed learning based on…

This paper considers elections in which voters choose one candidate each, independently according to known probability distributions. A candidate receiving a strict majority (absolute or relative, depending on the version) wins. After the…

Today, our more-than-ever digital lives leave significant footprints in cyberspace. Large scale collections of these socially generated footprints, often known as big data, could help us to re-investigate different aspects of our social…

Despite extensive theoretical research on proportionality in approval-based multiwinner voting, its impact on which committees and candidates can be selected in practice remains poorly understood. We address this gap by (i) analyzing the…

American democracy is currently heavily reliant on plurality in single-member districts, or PSMD, as a system of election. But public perceptions of fairness are often keyed to partisan proportionality, or the degree of congruence between…

We develop a new Gibbs sampler for a linear mixed model with a Dirichlet process random effect term, which is easily extended to a generalized linear mixed model with a probit link function. Our Gibbs sampler exploits the properties of the…

In majority voting dynamics, a group of $n$ agents in a social network are asked for their preferred candidate in a future election between two possible choices. At each time step, a new poll is taken, and each agent adjusts their vote…

We develop a theory of distributive competition under redistricting that explains both electoral outcomes and the equilibrium allocation of policy benefits by endogenizing voter pivotality. In a multi-district model with primaries, general…

Switching from one electoral system to another one is frequently criticized by the opposition and is viewed as a means for the ruling party to stay in power. In particular, when the new electoral system is a parallel voting (or a…

The paper considers the problem of finding the number of dominant voters in two-level voting procedures. At the first stage, voting is conducted among local groups of voters, and at the second stage, the results are aggregated to form a…

The margin of victory of an election is a useful measure to capture the robustness of an election outcome. It also plays a crucial role in determining the sample size of various algorithms in post election audit, polling etc. In this work,…