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The identification of factors associated with mental and behavioral disorders in early childhood is critical both for psychopathology research and the support of primary health care practices. Motivated by the Millennium Cohort Study, in…

Generating synthetic financial time series that preserve the statistical properties of real market data is essential for stress testing, risk model validation, and scenario design. Existing approaches struggle to simultaneously reproduce…

Single-index models or time-to-event models are frequently applied in empirical research. These models are non-identifiable in presence of unknown (dependent) censoring or competing risks and do not give informative results in empirical…

We consider an energy storage problem involving a wind farm with a forecasted power output, a stochastic load, an energy storage device, and a connection to the larger power grid with stochastic prices. Electricity prices and wind power…

We develop a semi-parametric state-space model for time-series data with latent regime transitions. Classical Markov-switching models use fixed parametric transition functions, such as logistic or probit links, which restrict flexibility…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are probabilistic methods in which observations are seen as realizations of a latent Markov process with discrete states that switch over time. Moving beyond standard statistical tests, HMMs offer a statistical…

In this article we suggest a new statistical approach considering survival heterogeneity as a breakpoint model in an ordered sequence of time to event variables. The survival responses need to be ordered according to a numerical covariate.…

Hidden Markov models (HMMs) are popular models to identify a finite number of latent states from sequential data. However, fitting them to large data sets can be computationally demanding because most likelihood maximization techniques…

Multi-type Markov point processes offer a flexible framework for modelling complex multi-type point patterns where it is pertinent to capture both interactions between points as well as large scale trends depending on observed covariates.…

Multivariate time series analysis is becoming an integral part of data analysis pipelines. Understanding the individual time point connections between covariates as well as how these connections change in time is non-trivial. To this aim,…

We introduce a new procedure to neuralize unsupervised Hidden Markov Models in the continuous case. This provides higher flexibility to solve problems with underlying latent variables. This approach is evaluated on both synthetic and real…

We consider Markov models of stochastic processes where the next-step conditional distribution is defined by a kernel density estimator (KDE), similar to Markov forecast densities and certain time-series bootstrap schemes. The KDE Markov…

We consider a time series model involving a fractional stochastic component, whose integration order can lie in the stationary/invertible or nonstationary regions and be unknown, and an additive deterministic component consisting of a…

The prediction of wind speed is one of the most important aspects when dealing with renewable energy. In this paper we show a new nonparametric model, based on semi-Markov chains, to predict wind speed. Particularly we use an indexed…

This paper considers hidden Markov models where the observations are given as the sum of a latent state which lies in a general state space and some independent noise with unknown distribution. It is shown that these fully nonparametric…

The analysis of nonstationary time series is of great importance in many scientific fields such as physics and neuroscience. In recent years, Gaussian process regression has attracted substantial attention as a robust and powerful method…

We address the problem of predicting spatio-temporal processes with temporal patterns that vary across spatial regions, when data is obtained as a stream. That is, when the training dataset is augmented sequentially. Specifically, we…

Spatio-temporal prediction of levels of an environmental exposure is an important problem in environmental epidemiology. Our work is motivated by multiple studies on the spatio-temporal distribution of mobile source, or traffic related,…

A hidden Markov model with trends is a hidden Markov model whose emission distributions are translated by a trend that depends on the current hidden state and on the current time. Contrary to standard hidden Markov models, such processes…

This paper presents a novel methodology for modelling precipitation patterns in a specific geographical region using Hidden Markov Models (HMMs). Departing from conventional HMMs, where the hidden state process is assumed to be Markovian,…