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The inability of artificial neural networks to assess the uncertainty of their predictions is an impediment to their widespread use. We distinguish two types of learnable uncertainty: model uncertainty due to a lack of training data and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-06-14 Hans Weytjens , Jochen De Weerdt

Probabilistic predictions from neural networks which account for predictive uncertainty during classification is crucial in many real-world and high-impact decision making settings. However, in practice most datasets are trained on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-09-30 Satya Borgohain , Klaus Ackermann , Ruben Loaiza-Maya

Power distribution networks are approaching their voltage stability boundaries due to the severe voltage violations and the inadequate reactive power reserves caused by the increasing renewable generations and dynamic loads. In the broad…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2022-08-18 Wanjun Huang , Changhong Zhao

In a typical fusion experiment, the plasma can have several possible confinement modes. At the TCV tokamak, aside from the Low (L) and High (H) confinement modes, an additional mode, dithering (D), is frequently observed. Developing methods…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2021-05-26 Francisco Matos , Vlado Menkovski , Alessandro Pau , Gino Marceca , Frank Jenko

The emergence and dynamics of filamentary structures associated with edge-localized modes (ELMs) inside tokamak plasmas during high-confinement mode is regularly studied using Electron Cyclotron Emission Imaging (ECEI) diagnostic systems.…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2022-04-05 Cooper Jacobus , Minjun J. Choi , Ralph Kube

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2020-06-29 Alex J. Chan , Ahmed M. Alaa , Zhaozhi Qian , Mihaela van der Schaar

In Hezaveh et al. 2017 we showed that deep learning can be used for model parameter estimation and trained convolutional neural networks to determine the parameters of strong gravitational lensing systems. Here we demonstrate a method for…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2017-11-29 Laurence Perreault Levasseur , Yashar D. Hezaveh , Risa H. Wechsler

A crucial task in predictive maintenance is estimating the remaining useful life of physical systems. In the last decade, deep learning has improved considerably upon traditional model-based and statistical approaches in terms of predictive…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-02-05 Luca Della Libera , Jacopo Andreoli , Davide Dalle Pezze , Mirco Ravanelli , Gian Antonio Susto

Deep learning models have exhibited superior performance in predictive tasks with the explosively increasing Electronic Health Records (EHR). However, due to the lack of transparency, behaviors of deep learning models are difficult to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-07-16 Riyi Qiu , Yugang Jia , Mirsad Hadzikadic , Michael Dulin , Xi Niu , Xin Wang

Despite the dominant role of deep models in machine learning, limitations persist, including overconfident predictions, susceptibility to adversarial attacks, and underestimation of variability in predictions. The Bayesian paradigm provides…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-06-18 Alisa Sheinkman , Sara Wade

Predicting plasma evolution within a Tokamak is crucial to building a sustainable fusion reactor. Whether in the simulation space or within the experimental domain, the capability to forecast the spatio-temporal evolution of plasma field…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2023-02-14 Vignesh Gopakumar , Stanislas Pamela , Lorenzo Zanisi , Zongyi Li , Anima Anandkumar , MAST Team

The Multifaceted Asymmetric Radiation From the Edge (MARFE) is a critical plasma instability that often precedes density-limit disruptions in tokamaks, posing a significant risk to machine integrity and operational efficiency. Early and…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2025-10-29 Qianyun Dong , Rongpeng Li , Zongyu Yang , Fan Xia , Liang Liu , Zhifeng Zhao , Wulyu Zhong

When fine-tuning Deep Neural Networks (DNNs) to new data, DNNs are prone to overwriting network parameters required for task-specific functionality on previously learned tasks, resulting in a loss of performance on those tasks. We propose…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-22 Christopher Angelini , Nidhal Bouaynaya

Neural networks (NNs) are primarily developed within the frequentist statistical framework. Nevertheless, frequentist NNs lack the capability to provide uncertainties in the predictions, and hence their robustness can not be adequately…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2023-10-26 Nastaran Dabiran , Brandon Robinson , Rimple Sandhu , Mohammad Khalil , Dominique Poirel , Abhijit Sarkar

Our understanding of physical systems generally depends on our ability to match complex computational modelling with measured experimental outcomes. However, simulations with large parameter spaces suffer from inverse problem instabilities,…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2020-01-22 M. F. Kasim , T. P. Galligan , J. Topp-Mugglestone , G. Gregori , S. M. Vinko

Stability selection is a versatile framework for structure estimation and variable selection in high-dimensional setting, primarily grounded in frequentist principles. In this paper, we propose an enhanced methodology that integrates…

Methodology · Statistics 2026-05-05 Mahdi Nouraie , Connor Smith , Samuel Muller

Disruptions are a serious issue in tokamaks. In a disruption, the thermal energy is lost by means of an instability which could be a resistive wall tearing mode (RWTM). During precursors to a disruption, the plasma edge region cools,…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2023-08-16 H. R. Strauss

The generic question is considered: How can we determine the probability of an otherwise quasirandom event, having been triggered by an external influence? A specific problem is the quantification of the success of techniques to trigger,…

Plasma Physics · Physics 2014-11-04 A. J. Webster

The accurate construction of tokamak equilibria, which is critical for the effective control and optimization of plasma configurations, depends on the precise distribution of magnetic fields and magnetic fluxes. Equilibrium fitting codes,…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are powerful black box predictors that have recently achieved impressive performance on a wide spectrum of tasks. Quantifying predictive uncertainty in NNs is a challenging and yet unsolved problem. Bayesian NNs,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2017-11-07 Balaji Lakshminarayanan , Alexander Pritzel , Charles Blundell