Related papers: Online Variational Sequential Monte Carlo
In this paper, we explore the class of the Hidden Semi-Markov Model (HSMM), a flexible extension of the popular Hidden Markov Model (HMM) that allows the underlying stochastic process to be a semi-Markov chain. HSMMs are typically used less…
We develop the self-learning Monte Carlo (SLMC) method, a general-purpose numerical method recently introduced to simulate many-body systems, for studying interacting fermion systems. Our method uses a highly-efficient update algorithm,…
In the following paper we provide a review and development of sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for option pricing. SMC are a class of Monte Carlo-based algorithms, that are designed to approximate expectations w.r.t a sequence of…
State estimation in robotic systems presents significant challenges, particularly due to the prevalence of multimodal posterior distributions in real-world scenarios. One effective strategy for handling such complexity is to compute maximum…
The hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) algorithm is applied for the Bayesian inference of the stochastic volatility (SV) model. We use the HMC algorithm for the Markov chain Monte Carlo updates of volatility variables of the SV model. First we…
We provide a framework which admits a number of ``marginal'' sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms as particular cases -- including the marginal particle filter [Klaas et al., 2005, in: Proceedings of Uncertainty in Artificial…
Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods, also known as particle filters, constitute a class of algorithms used to approximate expectations with respect to a sequence of probability distributions as well as the normalising constants of those…
This paper proposes an online learning method of Gaussian process state-space model (GP-SSM). GP-SSM is a probabilistic representation learning scheme that represents unknown state transition and/or measurement models as Gaussian processes…
We analyse the performance of a recursive Monte Carlo method for the Bayesian estimation of the static parameters of a discrete--time state--space Markov model. The algorithm employs two layers of particle filters to approximate the…
Sequential Monte Carlo squared (SMC$^2$) methods can be used for parameter inference of intractable likelihood state-space models. These methods replace the likelihood with an unbiased particle filter estimator, similarly to particle Markov…
Random sampling of graph partitions under constraints has become a popular tool for evaluating legislative redistricting plans. Analysts detect partisan gerrymandering by comparing a proposed redistricting plan with an ensemble of sampled…
Speculative decoding (SD) accelerates language model inference by drafting tokens from a cheap proposal model and verifying them against an expensive target model via rejection sampling. Because rejection truncates the draft block at the…
We consider the problem of high-dimensional filtering of state-space models (SSMs) at discrete times. This problem is particularly challenging as analytical solutions are typically not available and many numerical approximation methods can…
Expectation maximization (EM) is a technique for estimating maximum-likelihood parameters of a latent variable model given observed data by alternating between taking expectations of sufficient statistics, and maximizing the expected log…
Most solved dynamic structural macrofinance models are non-linear and/or non-Gaussian state-space models with high-dimensional and complex structures. We propose an annealed controlled sequential Monte Carlo method that delivers numerically…
Sequential Monte Carlo samplers represent a compelling approach to posterior inference in Bayesian models, due to being parallelisable and providing an unbiased estimate of the posterior normalising constant. In this work, we significantly…
In the stochastic gradient descent (SGD) for sequential simulations such as the neural stochastic differential equations, the Multilevel Monte Carlo (MLMC) method is known to offer better theoretical computational complexity compared to the…
Recently there have been exciting developments in Monte Carlo methods, with the development of new MCMC and sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithms which are based on continuous-time, rather than discrete-time, Markov processes. This has…
We consider the computation of the permanent of a binary n by n matrix. It is well- known that the exact computation is a #P complete problem. A variety of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) computational algorithms have been introduced in the…
We introduce an extension of the time-dependent variational Monte Carlo (tVMC) method that adaptively controls the expressivity of the variational quantum state during the simulation of the dynamics. This adaptive tVMC (atVMC) approach is…