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Machine-learning (ML) models, such as the AIFS at the ECMWF, have revolutionised weather forecasting in recent years. We present an extension of the AIFS that jointly models the atmosphere and surface ocean, including ocean waves and sea…

Recent advances in AI-based weather prediction have led to the development of artificial intelligence weather prediction (AIWP) models with competitive forecast skill compared to traditional NWP models, but with substantially reduced…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-10-30 Nicholas Loveday , Tracy Hertneky

The artificial intelligence revolution is fueling a paradigm shift in weather forecasting: forecasts are generated with machine learning models trained on large datasets rather than with physics-based numerical models that solve partial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-02-03 Zied Ben Bouallègue

An Ensemble of Data Assimilations (EDA) can provide valuable information on the analysis and short-range forecast uncertainties. The present ECMWF operational ocean analysis and reanalysis system, called ORAS5, produces an ensemble but does…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-07-08 Marcin Chrust , Anthony T. Weaver , Philip Browne , Hao Zuo , Magdalena Alonso Balmaseda

Understanding seasonal climatic conditions is critical for better management of resources such as water, energy and agriculture. Recently, there has been a great interest in utilizing the power of artificial intelligence methods in climate…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-02-22 Alper Unal , Busra Asan , Ismail Sezen , Bugra Yesilkaynak , Yusuf Aydin , Mehmet Ilicak , Gozde Unal

Data Assimilation (DA) plays a critical role in atmospheric science by reconstructing spatially continous estimates of the system state, which serves as initial conditions for scientific analysis. While recent advances in diffusion models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-20 Hao Wang , Jindong Han , Wei Fan , Weijia Zhang , Hao Liu

AI emulators for forecasting have emerged as powerful tools that can outperform conventional numerical predictions. The next frontier is to build emulators for long climate simulations with skill across a range of spatiotemporal scales, a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-06-03 Surya Dheeshjith , Adam Subel , Alistair Adcroft , Julius Busecke , Carlos Fernandez-Granda , Shubham Gupta , Laure Zanna

In-situ ocean wave observations are critical to improve model skill and validate remote sensing wave measurements. Historically, such observations are extremely sparse due to the large costs and complexity of traditional wave buoys and…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2020-03-11 Pieter B. Smit , Isabel A. Houghton , Kalina Jordanova , Thomas Portwood , Evan Shapiro , David Clark , Michael Sosa , Tim T. Janssen

Gaining a deeper understanding of weather and being able to predict its future conduct have always been considered important endeavors for the growth of our society. This research paper explores the advancements in understanding and…

Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting is crucial for public health, disaster preparedness, and agriculture, and yet it remains a particularly challenging timescale to predict. We explore the use of an interpretable AI-informed model analog…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-06 Jacob B. Landsberg , Matthew Newman , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Weather forecasting is a fundamental task in spatiotemporal data analysis, with broad applications across a wide range of domains. Existing data-driven forecasting methods typically model atmospheric dynamics over a fixed short time…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-01 Jindong Tian , Yifei Ding , Ronghui Xu , Hao Miao , Chenjuan Guo , Bin Yang

Tracking financial investments in climate adaptation is a complex and expertise-intensive task, particularly for Early Warning Systems (EWS), which lack standardized financial reporting across multilateral development banks (MDBs) and…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2025-05-29 Saeid Ario Vaghefi , Aymane Hachcham , Veronica Grasso , Jiska Manicus , Nakiete Msemo , Chiara Colesanti Senni , Markus Leippold

This position paper argues that the next generation of artificial intelligence in meteorological and climate sciences must transition from fragmented hybrid heuristics toward a unified paradigm of physics-guided multimodal transformers.…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-01-29 Jing Han , Hanting Chen , Kai Han , Xiaomeng Huang , Wenjun Xu , Dacheng Tao , Ping Zhang

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-20 Jacob B. Landsberg , Elizabeth A. Barnes

Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) alert drivers during safety-critical scenarios but often provide superfluous alerts due to a lack of consideration for drivers' knowledge or scene awareness. Modeling these aspects together in a…

Robotics · Computer Science 2024-09-10 Abhijat Biswas , John Gideon , Kimimasa Tamura , Guy Rosman

Advanced driving-assistance systems (ADAS) are intended to automatize driver tasks, as well as improve driving and vehicle safety. This work proposes an intelligent neuro-fuzzy sensor for driving style (DS) recognition, suitable for ADAS…

Recently, multiple data-driven models based on machine learning for weather forecasting have emerged. These models are highly competitive in terms of accuracy compared to traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems. In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-08-10 Wencong Cheng , Yan Yan , Jiangjiang Xia , Qi Liu , Chang Qu , Zhigang Wang

Data assimilation has become a key technique for combining physical models with observational data to estimate state variables. However, classical assimilation algorithms often struggle with the high nonlinearity present in both physical…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-07-22 Zhuoyuan Li , Bin Dong , Pingwen Zhang

Precipitation governs Earth's hydroclimate, and its daily spatiotemporal fluctuations have major socioeconomic effects. Advances in Numerical weather prediction (NWP) have been measured by the improvement of forecasts for various physical…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-11-14 Manmeet Singh , Vaisakh S B , Nachiketa Acharya , Aditya Grover , Suryachandra A Rao , Bipin Kumar , Zong-Liang Yang , Dev Niyogi