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Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-30 Yingkai Sha , John S. Schreck , William Chapman , David John Gagne

Recently, artificial intelligence-based (AI-based) models for forecasting of global weather have been rapidly developed. Most of the global models are trained on reanalysis datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.25{\deg}*0.25{\deg}.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-28 Pengbo Xu , Xiaogu Zheng , Tianyan Gao , Yu Wang , Junping Yin , Juan Zhang , Xuanze Zhang , San Luo , Zhonglei Wang , Zhimin Zhang , Xiaoguang Hu , Xiaoxu Chen

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based weather prediction research is growing rapidly and has shown to be competitive with the advanced dynamic numerical weather prediction models. However, research combining AI-based weather prediction models…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-16 Shunji Kotsuki , Kenta Shiraishi , Atsushi Okazaki

Artificial intelligence (AI)-based data-driven weather forecasting models have experienced rapid progress over the last years. Recent studies, with models trained on reanalysis data, achieve impressive results and demonstrate substantial…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-02 Christopher Bülte , Nina Horat , Julian Quinting , Sebastian Lerch

Aerosol forecasting is essential for air quality warnings, health risk assessment, and climate change mitigation. However, it is more complex than weather forecasting due to the intricate interactions between aerosol physicochemical…

Data assimilation (DA) is integrated with machine learning in order to perform entirely data-driven online state estimation. To achieve this, recurrent neural networks (RNNs) are implemented as surrogate models to replace key components of…

Machine learning models have shown great success in predicting weather up to two weeks ahead, outperforming process-based benchmarks. However, existing approaches mostly focus on the prediction task, and do not incorporate the necessary…

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

Numerical weather prediction has long been constrained by the computational bottlenecks inherent in data assimilation and numerical modeling. While machine learning has accelerated forecasting, existing models largely serve as "emulators of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-17 Xiaoze Xu , Xiuyu Sun , Songling Zhu , Xiaohui Zhong , Yuanqing Huang , Zijian Zhu , Jun Liu , Hao Li

As artificial intelligence (AI) continues to rapidly evolve, the realm of Earth and atmospheric sciences is increasingly adopting data-driven models, powered by progressive developments in deep learning (DL). Specifically, DL techniques are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-07 Shengchao Chen , Guodong Long , Jing Jiang , Dikai Liu , Chengqi Zhang

Climate system models (CSMs), through integrating cross-sphere interactions among the atmosphere, ocean, land, and cryosphere, have emerged as pivotal tools for deciphering climate dynamics and improving forecasting capabilities. Recent…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-05-13 Chenguang Zhou , Lei Chen , Xiaohui Zhong , Bo Lu , Hao Li , Libo Wu , Jie Wu , Jiahui Hu , Zesheng Dou , Pang-Chi Hsu , Xiaoye Zhang

Data assimilation (DA) in the geophysical sciences remains the cornerstone of robust forecasts from numerical models. Indeed, DA plays a crucial role in the quality of numerical weather prediction, and is a crucial building block that has…

Data assimilation is a central problem in many geophysical applications, such as weather forecasting. It aims to estimate the state of a potentially large system, such as the atmosphere, from sparse observations, supplemented by prior…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-06-24 Matthieu Blanke , Ronan Fablet , Marc Lelarge

During the last two years, tremendous progress in global data-driven weather models trained on numerical weather prediction (NWP) re-analysis data has been made. The most recent models trained on the ERA5 at 0.25{\deg} resolution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2023-09-06 John Bjørnar Bremnes , Thomas N. Nipen , Ivar A. Seierstad

Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) has advanced significantly in recent decades but still faces challenges in accuracy, computational efficiency, and scalability. Data-driven weather models have shown great promise, sometimes surpassing…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-18 Animesh Choudhury , Jagabandhu Panda

Data assimilation (DA) estimates the state of an evolving dynamical system from noisy, partial observations, and is widely used in scientific simulation as well as weather and climate science. In practice, filtering methods rely on…

Image and Video Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2026-05-15 Yixuan Jia , Siyi Chen , Yida Pan , Xiao Li , Lianghe Shi , Chanyong Jung , Haijie Yuan , Ismail Alkhouri , Yue Cynthia Wu , Saiprasad Ravishankar , Jeffrey A Fessler , Qing Qu

Satellite observation operators play an essential role in atmospheric data assimilation by translating model state variables into observation space. Previous work has shown that deep-learned emulators can effectively predict the outputs of…

The rapid adoption of AI in Earth system science promises unprecedented speed and fidelity in the generation of climate information. However, this technological prowess rests on a fragile and unequal foundation: the current trajectory of AI…

Data assimilation (DA) integrates observations with model forecasts to produce optimized atmospheric states, whose physical consistency is critical for stable weather forecasting and reliable climate research. Traditional Bayesian DA…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-03-05 Hang Fan , Lei Bai , Ben Fei , Yi Xiao , Kun Chen , Yubao Liu , Yongquan Qu , Fenghua Ling , Pierre Gentine

This study examines the predictability of artificial intelligence (AI) models for weather prediction. Using a simple deep-learning architecture based on convolutional long short-term memory and the ERA5 data for training, we show that…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-10-07 Chanh Kieu