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Related papers: FengWu-4DVar: Coupling the Data-driven Weather For…

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Constraining a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model with observations via 4D variational (4D-Var) data assimilation is often difficult to implement in practice due to the need to develop and maintain a software-based tangent linear…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-08-07 Kylen Solvik , Stephen G. Penny , Stephan Hoyer

We consider the problem of data-assisted forecasting of chaotic dynamical systems when the available data is in the form of noisy partial measurements of the past and present state of the dynamical system. Recently there have been several…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-06-02 Alexander Wikner , Jaideep Pathak , Brian R. Hunt , Istvan Szunyogh , Michelle Girvan , Edward Ott

Similar to conventional video generation, current deep learning-based weather prediction frameworks often lack explicit physical constraints, leading to unphysical outputs that limit their reliability for operational forecasting. Among…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-27 Qiusheng Huang , Xiaohui Zhong , Xu Fan , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Convection (thunderstorm) develops rapidly within hours and is highly destructive, posing a significant challenge for nowcasting and resulting in substantial losses to infrastructure and society. After the emergence of artificial…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-12-19 Kuai Dai , Xutao Li , Junying Fang , Yunming Ye , Demin Yu , Hui Su , Di Xian , Danyu Qin , Jingsong Wang

Data assimilation combines prior (or background) information with observations to estimate the initial state of a dynamical system over a given time-window. A common application is in numerical weather prediction where a previous forecast…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2021-07-27 Coralia Cartis , Maha H. Kaouri , Amos S. Lawless , Nancy K. Nichols

Machine learning models have shown great success in predicting weather up to two weeks ahead, outperforming process-based benchmarks. However, existing approaches mostly focus on the prediction task, and do not incorporate the necessary…

In three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3DVar) for numerical weather prediction (NWP), the observation operator $\mathcal{H}$ plays a central role by mapping model state variables to an observation equivalent. For weather radar,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-12-23 Marco Stefanelli , Žiga Zaplotnik , Gregor Skok

Various types of measurement techniques, such as Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) devices, anemometers, and wind vanes, are extensively utilized in wind energy to characterize the inflow. However, these methods typically gather data at…

Fluid Dynamics · Physics 2025-02-13 Chang Yan , Shengfeng Xu , Zhenxu Sun , Thorsten Lutz , Dilong Guo , Guowei Yang

Errors in the representation of clouds in convection-permitting numerical weather prediction models can be introduced by different sources. These can be the forcing and boundary conditions, the representation of orography, the accuracy of…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2022-03-14 Stefanie Legler , Tijana Janjic

Data Assimilation is a cornerstone of atmospheric system modeling, tasked with reconstructing system states by integrating sparse, noisy observations with prior estimation. While traditional approaches like variational and ensemble Kalman…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-11-04 Hao Wang , Zixuan Weng , Jindong Han , Wei Fan , Hao Liu

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather models are now reaching operational-grade performance for some variables, but like traditional Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models, they exhibit systematic biases and reliability issues. We test…

Recently, artificial intelligence-based (AI-based) models for forecasting of global weather have been rapidly developed. Most of the global models are trained on reanalysis datasets with a spatial resolution of 0.25{\deg}*0.25{\deg}.…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-28 Pengbo Xu , Xiaogu Zheng , Tianyan Gao , Yu Wang , Junping Yin , Juan Zhang , Xuanze Zhang , San Luo , Zhonglei Wang , Zhimin Zhang , Xiaoguang Hu , Xiaoxu Chen

In the past few years, Artificial Intelligence (AI)-based weather forecasting methods have widely demonstrated strong competitiveness among the weather forecasting systems. However, these methods are insufficient for high-spatial-resolution…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-11-18 Xujun Wei , Feng Zhang , Renhe Zhang , Wenwen Li , Cuiping Liu , Bin Guo , Jingwei Li , Haoyang Fu , Xu Tang

Data-driven artificial intelligence (AI) models have made significant advancements in weather forecasting, particularly in medium-range and nowcasting. However, most data-driven weather forecasting models are black-box systems that focus on…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-01-14 Wanghan Xu , Fenghua Ling , Wenlong Zhang , Tao Han , Hao Chen , Wanli Ouyang , Lei Bai

Artificial Intelligence (AI) weather prediction (AIWP) models are powerful tools for medium-range forecasts but often lack physical consistency, leading to outputs that violate conservation laws. This study introduces a set of novel…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-30 Yingkai Sha , John S. Schreck , William Chapman , David John Gagne

Data-driven machine learning models for weather forecasting have made transformational progress in the last 1-2 years, with state-of-the-art ones now outperforming the best physics-based models for a wide range of skill scores. Given the…

Data assimilation is widely used in many disciplines such as meteorology, oceanography, and robotics to estimate the state of a dynamical system from noisy observations. In this work, we propose a lightweight and general method to perform…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-02 Thomas Savary , François Rozet , Gilles Louppe

A thermal convection loop is a annular chamber filled with water, heated on the bottom half and cooled on the top half. With sufficiently large forcing of heat, the direction of fluid flow in the loop oscillates chaotically, dynamics…

Dynamical Systems · Mathematics 2016-06-24 Andrew J. Reagan , Yves Dubief , Peter Sheridan Dodds , Christopher M. Danforth

Global data assimilation enables weather forecasting at all scales and provides valuable data for studying the Earth system. However, the computational demands of physics-based algorithms used in operational systems limits the volume and…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-07-17 Thomas J. Vandal , Kate Duffy , Daniel McDuff , Yoni Nachmany , Chris Hartshorn

Despite the remarkable strides made by AI-driven models in modern precipitation forecasting, these black-box models cannot inherently deepen the comprehension of underlying mechanisms. To address this limitation, we propose an AI-driven…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-05-12 Hao Xu , Yuntian Chen , Zhenzhong Zeng , Nina Li , Jian Li , Dongxiao Zhang