Related papers: Estimating predictability of depinning dynamics by…
We propose a framework for studying predictability of extreme events in complex systems. Major conceptual elements -- direct cascading or fragmentation, spatial dynamics, and external driving -- are combined in a classical age-dependent…
We use numerical simulations to study the dynamics of dense assemblies of self-propelled particles in the limit of extremely large, but finite, persistence times. In this limit, the system evolves intermittently between mechanical…
We study strain-controlled plastic deformation of crystalline solids via two-dimensional discrete dislocation dynamics simulations. To this end, we characterize the average stress-strain curves as well as the statistical properties of…
In a low-order model of the general circulation of the atmosphere we examine the predictability of threshold exceedance events of certain observables. The likelihood of such binary events -- the cornerstone also for the categoric (as…
The depinning transition of a front moving in a time-independent random potential is studied. The temporal development of the overall roughness w(L,t) of an initially flat front, $w(t)\propto t^\beta$, is the classical means to have access…
Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…
Nonlinear dynamical systems exposed to changing forcing can exhibit catastrophic transitions between alternative and often markedly different states. The phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD) can be used to anticipate such transitions…
The pinning of an inhomogeneous elastic medium by a disordered substrate is studied analytically and numerically. The static and dynamic properties of a $D$-dimensional system are shown to be equivalent to those of the well known problem of…
We propose a simple, exactly solvable, model of interface growth in a random medium that is a variant of the zero-temperature random-field Ising model on the Cayley tree. This model is shown to have a phase diagram (critical depinning field…
We propose a new procedure to monitor and forecast the onset of transitions in high dimensional complex systems. We describe our procedure by an application to the Tangled Nature model of evolutionary ecology. The quasi-stable…
Sampling the collective, dynamical fluctuations that lead to nonequilibrium pattern formation requires probing rare regions of trajectory space. Recent approaches to this problem based on importance sampling, cloning, and spectral…
We consider a model of an elastic manifold driven on a disordered energy landscape, with generalized long range elasticity. Varying the form of the elastic kernel by progressively allowing for the existence of zero-modes, the model…
We propose a learning-based robust predictive control algorithm that compensates for significant uncertainty in the dynamics for a class of discrete-time systems that are nominally linear with an additive nonlinear component. Such systems…
We model the isotropic depinning transition of a domain-wall using a two dimensional Ginzburg-Landau scalar field instead of a directed elastic string in a random media. An exact algorithm accurately targets both the critical depinning…
Continuous adaptation allows survival in an ever-changing world. Adjustments in the synaptic coupling strength between neurons are essential for this capability, setting us apart from simpler, hard-wired organisms. How these changes can be…
The Edwards-Wilkinson (EW) growth of $1+1$ interface is considered in the background of the correlated random noise. We use random Coulomb potential as the background long-range correlated noise. A depinning transition is observed in a…
Multiple studies of neural avalanches across different data modalities led to the prominent hypothesis that the brain operates near a critical point. The observed exponents often indicate the mean-field directed-percolation universality…
Predicting the dynamics of complex systems is crucial for various scientific and engineering applications. The accuracy of predictions depends on the model's ability to capture the intrinsic dynamics. While existing methods capture key…
The dynamics of complex systems in nature often occurs in terms of punctuations, or avalanches, rather than following a smooth, gradual path. A comprehensive theory of avalanche dynamics in models of growth, interface depinning, and…
We consider elastic manifolds evolving on disordered energy potentials under the action of an external uniform driving. This scenario includes the cases of {\em depinning} and {\em yielding}, which provide paradigmatic examples of out of…