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We introduce a scalable approach to Gaussian process inference that combines spatio-temporal filtering with natural gradient variational inference, resulting in a non-conjugate GP method for multivariate data that scales linearly with…
Markov chains are fundamental models for stochastic dynamics, with applications in a wide range of areas such as population dynamics, queueing systems, reinforcement learning, and Monte Carlo methods. Estimating the transition matrix and…
We show that prediction performance for global-local shrinkage regression can overcome two major difficulties of global shrinkage regression: (i) the amount of relative shrinkage is monotone in the singular values of the design matrix and…
We study random series priors for estimating a functional parameter (f\in L^2[0,1]). We show that with a series prior with random truncation, Gaussian coefficients, and inverse gamma multiplicative scaling, it is possible to achieve…
At the scale of the individual cell, protein production is a stochastic process with multiple time scales, combining quick and slow random steps with discontinuous and smooth variation. Hybrid stochastic processes, in particular…
In this paper, we propose a novel stochastic process that serves as a natural discrete-time counterpart to the continuous-time model known as the ``Poisson hyperbolic staircase'' proposed by Levikson et al. (1999), and clarify its…
This report considers a variable step time discretization algorithm proposed by Dahlquist, Liniger and Nevanlinna and applies the algorithm to the unsteady Stokes/Darcy model. Although long-time forgotten and little explored, the algorithm…
This paper proposes two distinct contributions to econometric analysis of large information sets and structural instabilities. First, it treats a regression model with time-varying coefficients, stochastic volatility and exogenous…
Incorporating information about the target distribution in proposal mechanisms generally produces efficient Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms (or at least, algorithms that are more efficient than uninformed counterparts). For instance, it…
In many areas of science and engineering, computer simulations are widely used as proxies for physical experiments, which can be infeasible or unethical. Such simulations can often be computationally expensive, and an emulator can be…
The first Bayesian results for the sparse normal means problem were proven for spike-and-slab priors. However, these priors are less convenient from a computational point of view. In the meanwhile, a large number of continuous shrinkage…
Markov chains provide a foundational framework for modeling sequential stochastic processes, with the transition probability matrix characterizing the dynamics of state evolution. While classical estimation methods such as maximum…
The use of stochastic models, in effect piecewise deterministic Markov processes (PDMP), has become increasingly popular especially for the modeling of chemical reactions and cell biophysics. Yet, exact simulation methods, for the…
Analyzing large samples of high-dimensional data under dependence is a challenging statistical problem as long time series may have change points, most importantly in the mean and the marginal covariances, for which one needs valid tests.…
Multi-group covariance estimation for matrix-variate data with small within group sample sizes is a key part of many data analysis tasks in modern applications. To obtain accurate group-specific covariance estimates, shrinkage estimation…
A temporal point process is a stochastic process that predicts which type of events is likely to happen and when the event will occur given a history of a sequence of events. There are various examples of occurrence dynamics in the daily…
We consider the problem of model selection when grouping structure is inherent within the regressors. Using a Bayesian approach, we model the mean vector by a one-group global-local shrinkage prior belonging to a broad class of such priors…
Existing methods of vector autoregressive model for multivariate time series analysis make use of low-rank matrix approximation or Tucker decomposition to reduce the dimension of the over-parameterization issue. In this paper, we propose a…
Modern-day civil, mechanical, and aeronautical structures are transitioning towards a continuous, online, and automated maintenance paradigm in order to ensure increased safety and reliability. The field of structural health monitoring…
Inference on unknown quantities in dynamical systems via observational data is essential for providing meaningful insight, furnishing accurate predictions, enabling robust control, and establishing appropriate designs for future…