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Renewable resources are strongly dependent on local and large-scale weather situations. Skillful subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecasts -- beyond two weeks and up to two months -- can offer significant socioeconomic advantages to the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-01 Maximilian Springenberg , Noelia Otero , Yuxin Xue , Jackie Ma

Tropical cyclones (TCs) are highly destructive and inherently uncertain weather systems. Ensemble forecasting helps quantify these uncertainties, yet traditional systems are constrained by high computational costs and limited capability to…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-29 Jun Liu , Tao Zhou , Jiarui Li , Xiaohui Zhong , Peng Zhang , Jie Feng , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Similar to conventional video generation, current deep learning-based weather prediction frameworks often lack explicit physical constraints, leading to unphysical outputs that limit their reliability for operational forecasting. Among…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-03-27 Qiusheng Huang , Xiaohui Zhong , Xu Fan , Lei Chen , Hao Li

Predictions on subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) timescales--ranging from two weeks to two month--are crucial for early warning systems but remain challenging owing to chaos in the climate system. Teleconnections, such as the stratospheric…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-04-11 Philine L. Bommer , Marlene Kretschmer , Fiona R. Spuler , Kirill Bykov , Marina M. -C. Höhne

Subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasting, which predicts climate conditions from several weeks to months in advance, represents a critical frontier for agricultural planning, energy management, and disaster preparedness. However, it…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-08-12 Tengfei Lyu , Weijia Zhang , Hao Liu

Subseasonal-to-seasonal forecasting is crucial for public health, disaster preparedness, and agriculture, and yet it remains a particularly challenging timescale to predict. We explore the use of an interpretable AI-informed model analog…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2026-04-06 Jacob B. Landsberg , Matthew Newman , Elizabeth A. Barnes

The Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) is an important driver of global weather and climate extremes, but its prediction in operational dynamical models remains challenging, with skillful forecasts typically limited to 3-4 weeks. Here, we…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-10-28 Xiao Zhou , Yuze Sun , Jie Wu , Xiaomeng Huang

It is largely agreed that subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability arises from the atmospheric initial state during early lead times and from the land and ocean during intermediate and late lead times. We test this hypothesis for the…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-01-14 Jhayron S. Pérez-Carrasquilla , Maria J. Molina

Machine learning weather models trained on observed atmospheric conditions can outperform conventional physics-based models at short- to medium-range (1-14 day) forecast timescales. Here we take the machine learning weather model ACE2,…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2025-04-01 Chris Kent , Adam A. Scaife , Nick J. Dunstone , Doug Smith , Steven C. Hardiman , Tom Dunstan , Oliver Watt-Meyer

We present an ensemble prediction system using a Deep Learning Weather Prediction (DLWP) model that recursively predicts key atmospheric variables with six-hour time resolution. This model uses convolutional neural networks (CNNs) on a…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2021-12-10 Jonathan A. Weyn , Dale R. Durran , Rich Caruana , Nathaniel Cresswell-Clay

Air pollution has emerged as a major public health challenge in megacities. Numerical simulations and single-site machine learning approaches have been widely applied in air quality forecasting tasks. However, these methods face multiple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-06-10 Zhixin Geng , Xu Fan , Xiqiao Lu , Yan Zhang , Guangyuan Yu , Cheng Huang , Qian Wang , Yuewu Li , Weichun Ma , Qi Yu , Libo Wu , Hao Li

Weather and climate forecasting is vital for sectors such as agriculture and disaster management. Although numerical weather prediction (NWP) systems have advanced, forecasting at the subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) scale, spanning 2 to 6…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2024-11-27 Yizhen Guo , Tian Zhou , Wanyi Jiang , Bo Wu , Liang Sun , Rong Jin

Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of…

Applications · Statistics 2019-05-23 Jessica Hwang , Paulo Orenstein , Judah Cohen , Karl Pfeiffer , Lester Mackey

Accurate subseasonal weather forecasting remains a major challenge due to the inherently chaotic nature of the atmosphere, which limits the predictive skill of conventional models beyond the mid-range horizon (approximately 15 days). In…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-03-26 Arsen Kuzhamuratov , Mikhail Zhirnov , Andrey Kuznetsov , Ivan Oseledets , Konstantin Sobolev

We present an operations-ready multi-model ensemble weather forecasting system which uses hybrid data-driven weather prediction models coupled with the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ocean model to predict global…

Atmospheric and Oceanic Physics · Physics 2024-03-26 Jonathan A. Weyn , Divya Kumar , Jeremy Berman , Najeeb Kazmi , Sylwester Klocek , Pete Luferenko , Kit Thambiratnam

Inflow forecasts play an essential role in the management of hydropower reservoirs. Forecasts help operators schedule power generation in advance to maximise economic value, mitigate downstream flood risk, and meet environmental…

Applications · Statistics 2021-08-16 Robert M. Graham , Jethro Browell , Douglas Bertram , Christopher J. White

We present FengWu, an advanced data-driven global medium-range weather forecast system based on Artificial Intelligence (AI). Different from existing data-driven weather forecast methods, FengWu solves the medium-range forecast problem from…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2026-03-03 Kang Chen , Tao Han , Junchao Gong , Lei Bai , Fenghua Ling , Jing-Jia Luo , Xi Chen , Leiming Ma , Tianning Zhang , Rui Su , Yuanzheng Ci , Bin Li , Xiaokang Yang , Wanli Ouyang

Decision-makers rely on weather forecasts to plant crops, manage wildfires, allocate water and energy, and prepare for weather extremes. Today, such forecasts enjoy unprecedented accuracy out to two weeks thanks to steady advances in…

Arctic sea ice plays a critical role in regulating Earth's climate system, significantly influencing polar ecological stability and human activities in coastal regions. Recent advances in artificial intelligence have facilitated the…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-04 Jingyi Xu , Shengnan Wang , Weidong Yang , Siwei Tu , Lei Bai , Ben Fei

Accurate prediction of climate in the subseasonal-to-seasonal scale is crucial for disaster preparedness and robust decision making amidst climate change. Yet, forecasting beyond the weather timescale is challenging because it deals with…

Computer Vision and Pattern Recognition · Computer Science 2024-11-22 Juan Nathaniel , Yongquan Qu , Tung Nguyen , Sungduk Yu , Julius Busecke , Aditya Grover , Pierre Gentine