English
Related papers

Related papers: Better Foundations for Subjective Probability

200 papers

The aim of this paper is to show that the concept of probability is best understood by dividing this concept into two different types of probability, namely physical probability and analogical probability. Loosely speaking, a physical…

Other Statistics · Statistics 2022-04-22 Russell J. Bowater

While previous sentiment analysis research has concentrated on the interpretation of explicitly stated opinions and attitudes, this work initiates the computational study of a type of opinion implicature (i.e., opinion-oriented inference)…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2014-04-28 Janyce Wiebe , Lingjia Deng

Difficulties over probability have often been considered fatal to the Everett interpretation of quantum mechanics. Here I argue that the Everettian can have everything she needs from `probability' without recourse to indeterminism,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Hilary Greaves

Neural rationale models are popular for interpretable predictions of NLP tasks. In these, a selector extracts segments of the input text, called rationales, and passes these segments to a classifier for prediction. Since the rationale is…

Computation and Language · Computer Science 2022-07-26 Yiming Zheng , Serena Booth , Julie Shah , Yilun Zhou

Recent work on the logical structure of non-locality has constructed scenarios where observations of multi-partite systems cannot be adequately described by compositions of non-signaling subsystems. In this paper we apply these frameworks…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2015-12-10 William Zeng , Philipp Zahn

The causal (belief) network is a well-known graphical structure for representing independencies in a joint probability distribution. The exact methods and the approximation methods, which perform probabilistic inference in causal networks,…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-04-05 Richard E. Neapolitan , James Kenevan

In stochastic decision problems, one often wants to estimate the underlying probability measure statistically, and then to use this estimate as a basis for decisions. We shall consider how the uncertainty in this estimation can be…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2017-05-24 Samuel N. Cohen

As animals interact with their environments, they must infer properties of their surroundings. Some animals, including humans, can represent uncertainty about those properties. But when, if ever, do they use probability distributions to…

Neurons and Cognition · Quantitative Biology 2024-04-15 Samuel Lippl , Raphael Gerraty , John Morrison , Nikolaus Kriegeskorte

Brandenburger, Friedenberg, and Keisler provide an epistemic characterization of iterated admissibility (i.e., iterated deletion of weakly dominated strategies) where uncertainty is represented using LPSs (lexicographic probability…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2009-06-24 Joseph Y. Halpern , Rafael Pass

Distributions over rankings are used to model data in various settings such as preference analysis and political elections. The factorial size of the space of rankings, however, typically forces one to make structural assumptions, such as…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-02-20 Jonathan Huang , Ashish Kapoor , Carlos E. Guestrin

We give a probabilistic analysis of inductive knowledge and belief and explore its predictions concerning knowledge about the future, about laws of nature, and about the values of inexactly measured quantities. The analysis combines a…

Logic in Computer Science · Computer Science 2021-06-23 Jeremy Goodman , Bernhard Salow

The consideration of nonstandard models of the real numbers and the definition of a qualitative ordering on those models provides a generalization of the principle of maximization of expected utility. It enables the decider to assign…

Computer Science and Game Theory · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Daniel Lehmann

We tackle the problem of conditioning probabilistic programs on distributions of observable variables. Probabilistic programs are usually conditioned on samples from the joint data distribution, which we refer to as deterministic…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-09 David Tolpin , Yuan Zhou , Tom Rainforth , Hongseok Yang

Uncertainty may be taken to characterize inferences, their conclusions, their premises or all three. Under some treatments of uncertainty, the inferences itself is never characterized by uncertainty. We explore both the significance of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2013-02-18 Henry E. Kyburg

As physics searches for invariants in observations, this paper looks for invariants of probabilistic observation without assuming physical structure. Structure emerges from the basic assumption of science that new information shall lead to…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2007-05-23 Johann Summhammer

There are multiple proposed interpretations of probability theory: one such interpretation is true-false logic under uncertainty. Cox's Theorem is a representation theorem that states, under a certain set of axioms describing the meaning of…

Statistics Theory · Mathematics 2020-02-11 Alexander Terenin , David Draper

The framework of algorithmic knowledge assumes that agents use deterministic knowledge algorithms to compute the facts they explicitly know. We extend the framework to allow for randomized knowledge algorithms. We then characterize the…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-01-11 Joseph Y. Halpern , Riccardo Pucella

Agents interacting with an incompletely known world need to be able to reason about the effects of their actions, and to gain further information about that world they need to use sensors of some sort. Unfortunately, both the effects of…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2007-05-23 Fahiem Bacchus , Joseph Y. Halpern , Hector J. Levesque

In this paper, we present a probabilistic adaptation of an Assume/Guarantee contract formalism. For the sake of generality, we assume that the extended state machines used in the contracts and implementations define sets of runs on a given…

Performance · Computer Science 2009-04-20 Benoît Delahaye , Benoît Caillaud

[Abridged] Some cosmological theories propose that the observable universe is a small part of a much larger universe in which parameters describing the low-energy laws of physics vary from region to region. How can we reasonably assess a…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2026-02-04 Feraz Azhar , Alan H. Guth , Mohammad Hossein Namjoo