Related papers: Forecasting skill of a crowd-prediction platform: …

How do we design and deploy crowdsourced prediction platforms for real-world applications where risk is an important dimension of prediction performance? To answer this question, we conducted a large online Wisdom of the Crowd study where…

Since the past few decades, human trajectory forecasting has been a field of active research owing to its numerous real-world applications: evacuation situation analysis, deployment of intelligent transport systems, traffic operations, to…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a…

Crowdwork often entails tackling cognitively-demanding and time-consuming tasks. Crowdsourcing can be used for complex annotation tasks, from medical imaging to geospatial data, and such data powers sensitive applications, such as health…

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting…

The evaluation of robot capabilities to navigate human crowds is essential to conceive new robots intended to operate in public spaces. This paper initiates the development of a benchmark tool to evaluate such capabilities; our long term…

Forecast combination -- the aggregation of individual forecasts from multiple experts or models -- is a proven approach to economic forecasting. To date, research on economic forecasting has concentrated on local combination methods, which…

Crowd predictions have demonstrated powerful performance in predicting future events. We aim to understand crowd prediction efficacy in ascertaining the veracity of human emotional expressions. We discover that collective discernment can…

Future Event Prediction (FEP) is an essential activity whose demand and application range across multiple domains. While traditional methods like simulations, predictive and time-series forecasting have demonstrated promising outcomes,…

We focus on robot navigation in crowded environments. To navigate safely and efficiently within crowds, robots need models for crowd motion prediction. Building such models is hard due to the high dimensionality of multiagent domains and…

Robot navigation through crowds poses a difficult challenge to AI systems, since the methods should result in fast and efficient movement but at the same time are not allowed to compromise safety. Most approaches to date were focused on the…

When humans navigate a crowed space such as a university campus or the sidewalks of a busy street, they follow common sense rules based on social etiquette. In this paper, we argue that in order to enable the design of new algorithms that…

Human mobility patterns refer to the regularities and trends in the way people move, travel, or navigate through different geographical locations over time. Detecting human mobility patterns is essential for a variety of applications,…

In crowd scenarios, predicting trajectories of pedestrians is a complex and challenging task depending on many external factors. The topology of the scene and the interactions between the pedestrians are just some of them. Due to…

Scholars have increasingly investigated "crowdsourcing" as an alternative to expert-based judgment or purely data-driven approaches to predicting the future. Under certain conditions, scholars have found that crowdsourcing can outperform…

Crowd simulation is a research area widely used in diverse fields, including gaming and security, assessing virtual agent movements through metrics like time to reach their goals, speed, trajectories, and densities. This is relevant for…

The Efficient Market Hypothesis (EMH) is widely accepted to hold true under certain assumptions. One of its implications is that the prediction of stock prices at least in the short run cannot outperform the random walk model. Yet, recently…

Research in neural networks in the field of computer vision has achieved remarkable accuracy for point estimation. However, the uncertainty in the estimation is rarely addressed. Uncertainty quantification accompanied by point estimation…

Thanks to the diffusion of the Internet of Things, nowadays it is possible to sense human mobility almost in real time using unconventional methods (e.g., number of bikes in a bike station). Due to the diffusion of such technologies, the…

The growing popularity of online fundraising (aka "crowdfunding") has attracted significant research on the subject. In contrast to previous studies that attempt to predict the success of crowdfunded projects based on specific…