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We present a novel Bayesian inference tool that uses a neural network to parameterise efficient Markov Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) proposals. The target distribution is first transformed into a diagonal, unit variance Gaussian by a series of…

Cosmology and Nongalactic Astrophysics · Physics 2020-06-03 Adam Moss

Bayesian reinforcement learning (BRL) encodes prior knowledge of the world in a model and represents uncertainty in model parameters by maintaining a probability distribution over them. This paper presents Monte Carlo BRL (MC-BRL), a simple…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2012-07-03 Yi Wang , Kok Sung Won , David Hsu , Wee Sun Lee

We consider the problem of sampling from posterior distributions for Bayesian models where some parameters are restricted to be orthogonal matrices. Such matrices are sometimes used in neural networks models for reasons of regularization…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2019-01-24 Viktor Yanush , Dmitry Kropotov

One of the consequences of network densification is more frequent handovers (HO). HO failures have a direct impact on the quality of service and are undesirable, especially in scenarios with strict latency, reliability, and robustness…

Networking and Internet Architecture · Computer Science 2023-01-26 Eloise de Carvalho Rodrigues , Alvaro Valcarce Rial , Giovanni Geraci

Connecting optimal transport and variational inference, we present a principled and systematic framework for sampling and generative modelling centred around divergences on path space. Our work culminates in the development of the…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-08 Francisco Vargas , Shreyas Padhy , Denis Blessing , Nikolas Nüsken

Gaussian random fields play an important role in many areas of science and engineering. In practice, they are often simulated by sampling from a high-dimensional multivariate normal distribution, which arises from the discretisation of a…

Numerical Analysis · Mathematics 2026-02-12 Yoshihito Kazashi , Eike H. Müller , Robert Scheichl

In this paper, we present a Model-Based Reinforcement Learning (MBRL) algorithm named \emph{Monte Carlo Probabilistic Inference for Learning COntrol} (MC-PILCO). The algorithm relies on Gaussian Processes (GPs) to model the system dynamics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-11-29 Fabio Amadio , Alberto Dalla Libera , Riccardo Antonello , Daniel Nikovski , Ruggero Carli , Diego Romeres

Data-driven offline model-based optimization (MBO) is an established practical approach to black-box computational design problems for which the true objective function is unknown and expensive to query. However, the standard approach which…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-04-03 Sathvik Kolli

We introduce a revised derivation of the bitwise Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) multiple-input multiple-output (MIMO) detector. The new approach resolves the previously reported high SNR stalling problem of MCMC without the need for…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-07-13 Jonathan C. Hedstrom , Chung Him , Yuen , Rong-Rong Chen , Behrouz Farhang-Boroujeny

Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC) has emerged as a powerful Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to sample from complex continuous distributions. However, a fundamental limitation of HMC is that it can not be applied to distributions with…

Computation · Statistics 2021-12-10 Guangyao Zhou

Decision trees have found widespread application within the machine learning community due to their flexibility and interpretability. This paper is directed towards learning decision trees from data using a Bayesian approach, which is…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2023-12-05 Jodie A. Cochrane , Adrian G. Wills , Sarah J. Johnson

Many probabilistic models of interest in scientific computing and machine learning have expensive, black-box likelihoods that prevent the application of standard techniques for Bayesian inference, such as MCMC, which would require access to…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2018-11-30 Luigi Acerbi

The FBMS R package facilitates Bayesian model selection and model averaging in complex regression settings by employing a variety of Monte Carlo model exploration methods. At its core, the package implements an efficient Mode Jumping Markov…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-09-03 Florian Frommlet , Jon Lachmann , Geir Storvik , Aliaksandr Hubin

Employing Bayesian inference to calibrate constitutive model parameters has grown substantially in recent years. Among the available techniques, Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling remains one of the most widely used approaches for…

Computational Engineering, Finance, and Science · Computer Science 2026-04-02 Aricia Rinkens , Rodrigo L. S. Silva , Erik Quaeghebeur , Nick Jaensson , Clemens Verhoosel

We propose a generic approach for numerically efficient simulation from analytically intractable distributions with constrained support. Our approach relies upon Generalized Randomized Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (GRHMC) processes and combines…

Computation · Statistics 2024-06-03 Tore Selland Kleppe , Roman Liesenfeld

Driven by the critical needs of biomanufacturing 4.0, we introduce a probabilistic knowledge graph hybrid model characterizing the risk- and science-based understanding of bioprocess mechanisms. It can faithfully capture the important…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2022-10-03 Wei Xie , Keqi Wang , Hua Zheng , Ben Feng

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Bayesian inference often faces a trade-off between computational speed and sampling accuracy. We propose an adaptive workflow that integrates rapid amortized inference with gold-standard MCMC techniques to achieve a favorable combination of…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-02-19 Chengkun Li , Aki Vehtari , Paul-Christian Bürkner , Stefan T. Radev , Luigi Acerbi , Marvin Schmitt

We introduce a framework for inference in general state-space hidden Markov models (HMMs) under likelihood misspecification. In particular, we leverage the loss-theoretic perspective of Generalized Bayesian Inference (GBI) to define…

Methodology · Statistics 2020-10-22 Ayman Boustati , Ömer Deniz Akyildiz , Theodoros Damoulas , Adam M. Johansen

Bayesian optimization is a powerful tool to optimize a black-box function, the evaluation of which is time-consuming or costly. In this paper, we propose a new approach to Bayesian optimization called GP-MGC, which maximizes multiscale…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-03-18 Takuya Kanazawa