Related papers: Limit Order Book Dynamics and Order Size Modelling…
We showcase how dropout variational inference can be applied to a large-scale deep learning model that predicts price movements from limit order books (LOBs), the canonical data source representing trading and pricing movements. We…
Hawkes process is a self-exciting point process with clustering effect whose intensity depends on its entire past history. It has wide applications in neuroscience, finance and many other fields. In this paper, we obtain a functional…
Traditionally, Hawkes processes are used to model time--continuous point processes with history dependence. Here we propose an extended model where the self--effects are of both excitatory and inhibitory type and follow a Gaussian Process.…
Forecasting the movements of stock prices is one the most challenging problems in financial markets analysis. In this paper, we use Machine Learning (ML) algorithms for the prediction of future price movements using limit order book data.…
The success of deep learning-based limit order book forecasting models is highly dependent on the quality and the robustness of the input data representation. A significant body of the quantitative finance literature focuses on utilising…
Hawkes processes are a class of simple point processes that are self-exciting and have clustering effect, with wide applications in finance, social networks and many other fields. This paper considers a self-exciting Hawkes process where…
Human behavior drives a range of complex social, urban, and economic systems, yet understanding its structure and dynamics at the individual level remains an open question. From credit card transactions to communications data, human…
We propose a novel framework for modeling multiple multivariate point processes, each with heterogeneous event types that share an underlying space and obey the same generative mechanism. Focusing on Hawkes processes and their variants that…
Forecasting the degradation of coated materials has long been a topic of critical interest in engineering, as it has enormous implications for both system maintenance and sustainable material use. Material degradation is affected by many…
Algorithmic trading relies on extracting meaningful signals from diverse financial data sources, including candlestick charts, order statistics on put and canceled orders, traded volume data, limit order books, and news flow. While deep…
We generalise the construction of multivariate Hawkes processes to a possibly infinite network of counting processes on a directed graph $\mathbb G$. The process is constructed as the solution to a system of Poisson driven stochastic…
Recent years have seen an unprecedented rise of the role that technology plays in all aspects of human activities. Unavoidably, technology has heavily entered the Capital Markets trading space, to the extent that all major exchanges are now…
We present a general framework for modelling the dynamics of limit order books, built on the combination of two modelling ingredients: the order flow, modelled as a general spatial point process, and market clearing, modelled via a…
This paper introduces the Neural Network for Nonlinear Hawkes processes (NNNH), a non-parametric method based on neural networks to fit nonlinear Hawkes processes. Our method is suitable for analyzing large datasets in which events exhibit…
Existence and stability properties are studied for Hawkes process, i.e. point process $S$ that has long-memory and intensity $r(t)=\lambda \big(g_0(t)+ \sum_{\tau<t, \tau \in S} h(t-\tau) \big)$. The approach to Hawkes process presented in…
Financial exchanges across the world use limit order books (LOBs) to process orders and match trades. For research purposes it is important to have large scale efficient simulators of LOB dynamics. LOB simulators have previously been…
Using microscopic price models based on Hawkes processes, it has been shown that under some no-arbitrage condition, the high degree of endogeneity of markets together with the phenomenon of metaorders splitting generate rough Heston-type…
We conduct modeling of the price dynamics following order flow imbalance in market microstructure and apply the model to the analysis of Chinese CSI 300 Index Futures. There are three findings. The first is that the order flow imbalance is…
Univariate marked Hawkes processes are used to model a range of real-world phenomena including earthquake aftershock sequences, contagious disease spread, content diffusion on social media platforms, and order book dynamics. This paper…
We propose a model for the dynamics of a limit order book in a liquid market where buy and sell orders are submitted at high frequency. We derive a functional central limit theorem for the joint dynamics of the bid and ask queues and show…