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Here, we explore the problem of error propagation mitigation in modular digital twins as a sequential decision process. Building on a companion study that used a Hidden Markov Model (HMM) to infer latent error regimes from surrogate-physics…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-04-27 Annice Najafi , Shokoufeh Mirzaei

Learning-based approaches to verifying unknown Markov decision processes (MDPs) often employ uncertain MDPs. These models use, for example, confidence intervals to capture transition uncertainty and allow synthesis of policies that are…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2026-05-05 Yannik Schnitzer , Alessandro Abate , David Parker

We study the Gaussian Process regression model in the context of training data with noise in both input and output. The presence of two sources of noise makes the task of learning accurate predictive models extremely challenging. However,…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2015-07-03 Cuong Tran , Vladimir Pavlovic , Robert Kopp

We present new algorithms for computing and approximating bisimulation metrics in Markov Decision Processes (MDPs). Bisimulation metrics are an elegant formalism that capture behavioral equivalence between states and provide strong…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2019-11-22 Pablo Samuel Castro

POMDPs are useful models for systems where the true underlying state is not known completely to an outside observer; the outside observer incompletely knows the true state of the system, and observes a noisy version of the true system…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2021-09-01 Caleb M. Bowyer

Reinforcement learning in non-stationary environments is challenging due to abrupt and unpredictable changes in dynamics, often causing traditional algorithms to fail to converge. However, in many real-world cases, non-stationarity has some…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2025-03-25 Mohsen Amiri , Sindri Magnússon

In this paper machine learning and artificial neural network models are proposed for the classification of external noise sources affecting a given quantum dynamics. For this purpose, we train and then validate support vector machine,…

Quantum Physics · Physics 2023-02-17 Stefano Martina , Stefano Gherardini , Filippo Caruso

This paper introduces a novel methodology for the identification of switching dynamics for switched autoregressive linear models. Switching behavior is assumed to follow a Markov model. The system's outputs are contaminated by possibly…

Signal Processing · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2019-03-28 Sarah Hojjatinia , Constantino M. Lagoa

Markov decision processes (MDPs) are a popular model for performance analysis and optimization of stochastic systems. The parameters of stochastic behavior of MDPs are estimates from empirical observations of a system; their values are not…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2017-10-26 Dimitri Scheftelowitsch , Peter Buchholz , Vahid Hashemi , Holger Hermanns

We study planning problems where autonomous agents operate inside environments that are subject to uncertainties and not fully observable. Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) are a natural formal model to capture such…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2018-02-28 Steven Carr , Nils Jansen , Ralf Wimmer , Jie Fu , Ufuk Topcu

We propose a method for variable selection in the intensity function of spatial point processes that combines sparsity-promoting estimation with noise-robust model selection. As high-resolution spatial data becomes increasingly available…

Methodology · Statistics 2025-10-30 Dominik Sturm , Ivo F. Sbalzarini

We study detection of random signals corrupted by noise that over time switch their values (states) from a finite set of possible values, where the switchings occur at unknown points in time. We model such signals by means of a random…

Information Theory · Computer Science 2017-12-27 Dragana Bajović , Kanghang He , Lina Stanković , Dejan Vukobratović , Vladimir Stanković

The Markov Decision Process (MDP) is a popular framework for sequential decision-making problems, and uncertainty quantification is an essential component of it to learn optimal decision-making strategies. In particular, a Bayesian…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-05-06 Jiaqi Guo , Chon Wai Ho , Sumeetpal S. Singh

Robust environment perception is essential for decision-making on robots operating in complex domains. Intelligent task execution requires principled treatment of uncertainty sources in a robot's observation model. This is important not…

In this paper, quickest detection of false data injection attack on remote state estimation is considered. A set of $N$ sensors make noisy linear observations of a discrete-time linear process with Gaussian noise, and report the…

Systems and Control · Electrical Eng. & Systems 2022-01-19 Akanshu Gupta , Abhinava Sikdar , Arpan Chattopadhyay

Markov Decision Processes (MDPs) have been used to formulate many decision-making problems in science and engineering. The objective is to synthesize the best decision (action selection) policies to maximize expected rewards (or minimize…

Optimization and Control · Mathematics 2015-07-07 Mahmoud El Chamie , Behcet Acikmese

Partially observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs) provide an elegant mathematical framework for modeling complex decision and planning problems in stochastic domains in which states of the system are observable only indirectly, via a…

Artificial Intelligence · Computer Science 2011-06-02 M. Hauskrecht

We present a general framework for applying machine-learning algorithms to the verification of Markov decision processes (MDPs). The primary goal of these techniques is to improve performance by avoiding an exhaustive exploration of the…

We present a framework to address a class of sequential decision making problems. Our framework features learning the optimal control policy with robustness to noisy data, determining the unknown state and action parameters, and performing…

Machine Learning · Computer Science 2022-01-20 Amber Srivastava , Srinivasa M Salapaka

Accurate state estimation requires careful consideration of uncertainty surrounding the process and measurement models; these characteristics are usually not well-known and need an experienced designer to select the covariance matrices. An…

Machine Learning · Statistics 2025-07-18 Pardha Sai Krishna Ala , Ameya Salvi , Venkat Krovi , Matthias Schmid